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Am I supposed to broke here or could I have laid it down?

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  1. langedoggy langedoggy is offline

    Alamo, CA
    United States

    Posts: 24
    Joined: Aug 06

    Apr 18th, 2007 (4/18/2007 12:56pm)

    Okay, so yesterday I'm playing in a 3/2 NLH cash game. I have about $450 in front of me in the big blind. The player UTG has about $150 and opens for $10. Its folded around to the button who's sitting with about $1100, who calls $10. The small blind with around $200 calls. I look down at 4h 4s in the big blind and I call. So we go to the flop with a $40 pot.

    The flop comes [K 9 9] rainbow, and it gets checked around. The turn comes 4c (giving me a monster) and a board of [K 9 9] [4]. Its checked to me and I bet $20. The player UTG folds the button calls, and the small blind folds. So the button and I are head up to the river with the pot at $80. The river is Qd, and gives a final board of [K 9 9] 4 Q]. I bet $100 in hopes that it looks like a steal. The button thinks for a couple seconds and puts me all in.

    I go into a study and remember that he has not slow played a big hand preflop in 3 hours, so KK and QQ are out. I think theres an small chance that he has KQ but everything inside me is telling me that he slow played a 9. So if he did that only two hands beat me, K 9 and now the river Q 9. After a minute my decision is that I'm beating too many hands to lay down in this spot and I call. The button of course turns over Q 9 and flopped a set and hit a 3 outter on the riv to take a big pot.

    In my opion I think I have to be %100 sure I'm beat to fold and I wasn't. Should I have folded or can I stop beating myself up?
  2. Ally Ally is offline

    Minneapolis, MN
    United States

    Posts: 418
    Joined: Aug 06

    Apr 18th, 2007 (4/18/2007 2:24pm) in reply to langedoggy

    Tough spot and somewhat of a cooler.

    However, I do think that you overvalued your hand.

    As you are playing from the BB and are leading out into four players on a scary board after the turn, it's very possible (from your opponents' perspective) that you have at least a 9.

    So, what can your button caller have? The fact that they flat call should at least mean that they have a K or a 9 or a draw. Was there a flush draw there? Is it possible that they called with a gutshot draw on a paired board? Possible, but not likely. I'd say they have a K or a 9.

    I think that the river does appear to be relatively safe for you (anything other than a K or a 9 would look safe for you) so I think it's fine to bet out here for value.

    But, I don't think that this is a situation to try to make it look like you're on a steal here. With you in the BB, I don't think he is going to get too fancy trying to re-steal from you here with garbage. You could easily have K9, 44, A9, etc and will make the call. So, I think that you bet enough to get a K to call here and little enough to get away from if he shoves.

    I don't think he can shove anything here other than K9, Q9 or 99, (KK or QQ as well, but those really aren't in his range).

    So, I think this is a good place to bet for value on the river and fold to a re-raise.
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