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aq shove or fold bubble with a guy sitting out please help !

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  1. ktyven ktyven is offline

    White Bear Lake, MN
    United States

    Posts: 183
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    Sep 9th, 2011 (9/9/2011 6:57pm)

    late night 8k 75 dollar rebuy on merge

    6 players left ...pays only 5 spots... blinds 600 1200, two guys around 60k...big blind is sittin' with 45k.. another guy has about 30k... guy to my left had probably lost connection and been sitting out for about 20 minutes, he has 2500 left......

    had aq utg with 15.5k in chips ... i had spent 82 dollars to enter, rebought for another 75 and added on for 75.. so im in for 232 so far
    5th place pays 790, 1st pays 3900

    is this shove or fold.... can someone possibly calculate this out for me ? if i shove and get all folds i take down 2550 added on to my stack is this worth risking profiting 568 dollars ? how much is the 2550 gonna get me closer to the 3900 for first place ?

    in a normal game with no one sitting out this is a shove imo,
    Edited By: ktyven Sep 9th, 2011 at 07:11 PM
  2. jediwithaces jediwithaces is offline

    Canada

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    Sep 9th, 2011 (9/9/2011 7:06pm) in reply to ktyven

    you have only 5 players listed. utg PU 12.2%, 88+ A8s+ A5s-A4s ATo+ K9s+ KQo QTs+ JTs
  3. kevmode kevmode is offline

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    Sep 20th, 2011 (9/20/2011 5:05pm) in reply to absherrj

    I shove here AQ is too strong to fold. Def worth it to pick up the dead money and you are going to be getting a ton of folds in this spot as well. I bubbled in similar type scenario with AK when the sb had 2bb I jammed by 13bb over the overly active chip leaders raise and got 6th place and it really hurt. I was pretty upset because I was almost guar to cash that tourney considering the big blind only had 2bb but I just thought my hand was just too strong to fold in that spot.
     
  4. djdoodoo djdoodoo is offline

    United Kingdom

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    Sep 20th, 2011 (9/20/2011 5:48pm) in reply to mdshack14

    If you are playing just to cash then fold because the guy with 2k will be gone sooner than you. If not then shove.
  5. TrueMetalMan TrueMetalMan is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2011 (9/21/2011 4:04am) in reply to djdoodoo

    Like Reece said if you play to cash then fold, But imo you should be playing every mtt to win, if you couldn't afford the buy in and to play to win you shouldn't of been playing the mtt. I mean you have a lil over 12 bb's utg with aq I mean I don't see much of a better spot to try and take down some dead money or double up.

    But you have to think other players know that you know the sitter has a few bb's which I think would make your range a bit more Heavy in the sense of you would have to have a really strong hand to do this with. So I doubt you are getting called light or thin.

    I don't think I ever fold here because you have to play to win and this isn't a satty also you can't be results orientated.

    glgl
  6. aces_up4108 aces_up4108 is offline

    Templestowe
    Australia

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    Sep 21st, 2011 (9/21/2011 10:12pm) in reply to TrueMetalMan

    jedi def too loose.
    need to know exact pay structure and positions but from what i can gather from ICM

    push around 5.6%, QQ+ AJs+ A5s AQo+ KQs KQo

    still seems a bit loose though. i prob fold QK and a10 down. reason being the other larger stacks are prob calling wider than they should be so you need to tighten ur jam range considerably...
    65 3
  7. Jason2890 Jason2890 is offline plays plo for overlays

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    Sep 22nd, 2011 (9/22/2011 7:48pm) in reply to aces_up4108

    Your range seems a bit too tight there, ace_up4108. Are you really folding JJ here? I'm probably shoving TT+, AQo+, ATs+ and QKs.
  8. ktyven ktyven is offline

    White Bear Lake, MN
    United States

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    Sep 22nd, 2011 (9/22/2011 9:06pm) in reply to Jason2890

    agree i think tt jj is same as aqo at this point
    Thread Starter
  9. mrdollarbill mrdollarbill is offline

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    Sep 23rd, 2011 (9/23/2011 8:58pm) in reply to ktyven

    So are we jus open folding 88-99 here?
  10. double_kyan double_kyan is offline

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    Sep 23rd, 2011 (9/23/2011 10:13pm) in reply to mrdollarbill

    this is shove!!
    i dont like the dollar value in tht particular mtt
    rebuy $75 for 1500 chips add on 2500- blinds every10 minutes ,i havnt done any math but i prefer too just play it for 1 buy in because no matter wht u are going too have too win some showdowns and double up .Whether u added chips or not, shove mode comes quick on that tournament.
    Edited By: double_kyan Sep 23rd, 2011 at 10:22 PM
     1
  11. mattdb9er mattdb9er is offline

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    Sep 24th, 2011 (9/24/2011 5:19pm) in reply to double_kyan

    i shove everytime and its not even close for me , i always play to win , especially on merge PJs mean nothing
     
  12. TheVillageGrinder TheVillageGrinder is offline

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    Sep 24th, 2011 (9/24/2011 5:36pm) in reply to double_kyan

     
    Originally Posted by double_kyan View Post

    this is shove!!
    i dont like the dollar value in tht particular mtt
    rebuy $75 for 1500 chips add on 2500- blinds every10 minutes ,i havnt done any math but i prefer too just play it for 1 buy in because no matter wht u are going too have too win some showdowns and double up .Whether u added chips or not, shove mode comes quick on that tournament.

    Yep and i feel the same way about the 22r. Such a crapshoot.

    And about thehand, I guess the guy sitting out complicates matters but I can't see folding AQ here.
  13. aces_up4108 aces_up4108 is offline

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    Sep 24th, 2011 (9/24/2011 10:34pm) in reply to TheVillageGrinder

    sorry not sure what happened prob didnt cut paste properly. cant be bothered using icm calc again but id say replace the a5+ with 77+ and it's reasonable
    65 3
  14. P0LarAcE P0LarAcE is offline

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    Sep 25th, 2011 (9/25/2011 12:42am) in reply to aces_up4108

    did you have the intention of playing for 5th or 1st when you registered?

    lol ez shove for 12big blinds
  15. realpokerpro realpokerpro is offline

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    Sep 25th, 2011 (9/25/2011 2:00am) in reply to P0LarAcE

    Cool little math problem, I'll attempt to solve it.

    If you fold all the way to the money, you are giving up 2BB, 2SB and 1350 chip value considering you get called 25% of the time on UTG shove.

    211k total chips in play
    Total chips you losing by folding = 5150 2.44% of total chips
    $10,000 total prize pool
    15,500 chips you have ($734 value)
    5th place pays $790

    $10,000 * 2.44% = $244 (value of chips you lose by folding)
    15,500 * 7.34% = $734 (what your total chips are worth)

    By that math, super negative EV not fold and get in the money first.

    I'm open to debate. Some variables not considered is even more chips lost if you had to fold yet another big hand, though if someone busts out another, you could move up to 4th in just 2 orbits.
  16. TheVillageGrinder TheVillageGrinder is offline

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    Sep 25th, 2011 (9/25/2011 3:35pm) in reply to allani12

    You forgot one part of the equation tho, what happens when he shoves and doubles? You have to consider wht the value of his stack would be then to know if the difference in the value of his stack makes it worth it. I guess calculating what the worth of his stack would depend on which player doubles him.

    Say its the bb, so both have roughly 30 now and the other player has 30 and then two with 60. The value of his is stack may not change that much since he went from sole ownership of 5th place to a 3 way tie for 5th.

    I guess another consideration would be is how light do you think/expect the other players to call you down. The calling range may vary depending on each player and their location at the tbl/willingness to gamble.

    But i think the key thing to look and it how does much equity do you gain in the tournament by shoving and doubling and then deciding from there if a shove is good/worth it.
    Edited By: TheVillageGrinder Sep 25th, 2011 at 03:36 PM
  17. realpokerpro realpokerpro is offline

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    Sep 25th, 2011 (9/25/2011 10:23pm) in reply to TheVillageGrinder

    Ya you are right we do need further analysis if the shove play by itself is going to be an overall positive or negative play.

    1800 * 75% = 1350 net chips expected (.64% of total chips in play)
    $10,000 * .64% = $63.98 value of shoving picking up chips

    25% of the time you get called, 15% you go bust (assume 40% equity on call)
    $790 * 15% = $118 you risking

    So almost 2 to 1 negative EV shoving AQ

    Me I would just shove QQ+ and throw away everything else including AK and just wait 8 more hands for the guy to bust out.

    Overall if someone told me hey you could take a deal for this tournament that is worth more $'s that your total % of chips you have plus we'll throw in a freeroll for a higher finish on top of that, it would seem crazy to turn that offer down. 13BB vs 10BB is pretty much the same. You can shove anytime you need to later on and get chips.
  18. norv norv is offline

    New Zealand

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    Sep 26th, 2011 (9/26/2011 6:14am) in reply to realpokerpro

    the guy to follow will think u r trying it on, will call with 75 and spike a 7 - leaving u cursing and throwing your mouse at the cat - if ur a nit - sit and wait, if ur a gambler trying for 1st then shove it baby and let the cards fall

    btw....what happened?
  19. ktyven ktyven is offline

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    Sep 26th, 2011 (9/26/2011 4:08pm) in reply to norv

    bb snaped with 66..gg
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  20. TheVillageGrinder TheVillageGrinder is offline

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    Sep 26th, 2011 (9/26/2011 4:34pm) in reply to realpokerpro

    Based on the icm I'm kinda shifting my thinking toward thinking this could be a fold, wherein at first glance it seemed like a snap shove. But, you didn't figure in the times you get called and double up. What's the value of our stack then?

    Also can you explain more about how you are doing this math? Don't we need to plug all this into an ICM calculator to get a fuller understanding? I've only done that a few times before so I'm a bit rusty. I def will later, just don't have the time now.

    It seems to me you are just calulating the play based on our equity to win 5th place and not in the larger context of how doubling improves our chances of shipping.
  21. mattdb9er mattdb9er is offline

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    Sep 26th, 2011 (9/26/2011 5:04pm) in reply to TheVillageGrinder

    do people really worry about icm on merge, i cant imagine ever folding here 12 bigs 5 handed with AQ im high5ing my monitor when i shove, ul to run into 66 and lose the flip
     
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