Nash says yes - but can we get away from shoving as we are on the ft bubble?

Can we o/f here?

pokerstars Hand #81160347657: Tournament #575010421, $5.00+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXIV (6000/12000) - 2012/05/29 0:31:11 WET [2012/05/28 19:31:11 ET]
Table '575010421 123' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 2: WastedMak (331698 in chips)
Seat 3: Rusmaniac_PE (795455 in chips)
Seat 6: Mércurial (204555 in chips)
Seat 7: Fis01 (840909 in chips)
Seat 9: TheDukeoflug (363182 in chips)
WastedMak: posts the ante 1200
Rusmaniac_PE: posts the ante 1200
Mércurial: posts the ante 1200
Fis01: posts the ante 1200
TheDukeoflug: posts the ante 1200
WastedMak: posts small blind 6000
Rusmaniac_PE: posts big blind 12000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mércurial [Ah Tc]
Mércurial...

My image at this stage of the tournament was respectable - I'd just been playing tight and picking my spots - though previously I had been very active before running KK>AA.

I had shoved the SB into Fis a few hands before this and got a fold.

Fis was a pretty standard type tag 14/12 (166hs) + the BTN was a very nitty/honest type player 11/9 (187hs) who's not calling here unless he has a monster. WastedMak had been more active and we have an aggro dynamic between us and had just called down a BTN 10bbs shove light.

 

Originally Posted by Bisull

I'd love to have a couple more bb's here and R/F to everyone except SB but I think u just have to ship here pre...

Def agree with bisull here.

Also, if this was a turbo and everyone had 15bb and was playing tight then maybe we could r/f. With stacks the way they are I can't see this being anything but a shove

if your shove is getting called by: 88+,AJs+,AQo+

and you're getting reshoved on by: 77+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo

Then i'm pretty sure r/f is going to be better by a decent margin. i think any way you tweak the ranges within reason R/F is still better.

The fact that you are taking the blind next would be more reason to shove. also because in a 5$ you are more likely to get flatted. Against a bunch of bad players i'd just shove but i'd probably raise fold against a table of competent players.

would u shove a monster like AK, QQ, KK?

answer that question, and you will have the proper answer

 

Originally Posted by ktx49

would u shove a monster like AK, QQ, KK?

answer that question, and you will have the proper answer

You have a point, but to be honest I don't know that these players think that my opening here with 16bbs looks super strong. I can't be sure that they are paying enough attention/decent enough to make this observation. Were this a $50 freezeout on the FT bubble, would you be opening here?

 

Originally Posted by ktx49

how about raise calling the aggro players, and raise folding to the nit(s)?

i know we hate giving away 2bb but you would still have 14bb left and i promise you would find a better spot...i'm not saying AT is a bad shove, i'm sure its profitable, but I just feel like you are introducing alot of variance for no reason, really late in the game of a massive field.

I agree, and this is exactly the reason I posted this hand. R/f is a decent alternative in this spot, and something I will consider in future. Cheers.

I can't believe someone has said raise and fold, because that is what I would do in live poker. Usually with internet players it's instashove shove shove with 15-20 times the big blind. IMO awful. 17 times the big blind is enough to raise and fold, or raise and call, taking into account who has shoved. With most able players I am probably raising and folding. I am making the same 3x raise with AK AA KK QQ JJ and I know my opponents know that, so I know they are not reraising me light. If they are not reraising me light, I am folding AT to the reraise.

You can maybe say your opponents know that you know, they are not reraising you light, so they can make a move on you, but at the levels most of us play at, it shouldn't be a consideration. If AT is an instashove no one is thinking at any level at all, except I have AT, I shove, I hope. Horrible.

Incidentally about six years ago in a £100 tourney we were down to two tables, five handed, one from the final table. I had an average stack, but blinds were high. I had AQ and there was an under the gun raise. I folded AQ and was kicking myself thinking I was too tight. I brought the hand up on pokerlistings when it had a forum, and nearly everyone said it was the right fold. I realise there is a difference because on that hand I was reacting to a raise, but decent players try to play, not leave it to luck. My opponent turned over 99 that day. I now realise it was a good fold.

 

Originally Posted by TheSquirrel

I can't believe someone has said raise and fold, because that is what I would do in live poker. Usually with internet players it's instashove shove shove with 15-20 times the big blind. IMO awful. 17 times the big blind is enough to raise and fold, or raise and call, taking into account who has shoved. With most able players I am probably raising and folding. I am making the same 3x raise with AK AA KK QQ JJ and I know my opponents know that, so I know they are not reraising me light. If they are not reraising me light, I am folding AT to the reraise.

You can maybe say your opponents know that you know, they are not reraising you light, so they can make a move on you, but at the levels most of us play at, it shouldn't be a consideration. If AT is an instashove no one is thinking at any level at all, except I have AT, I shove, I hope. Horrible.

Incidentally about six years ago in a £100 tourney we were down to two tables, five handed, one from the final table. I had an average stack, but blinds were high. I had AQ and there was an under the gun raise. I folded AQ and was kicking myself thinking I was too tight. I brought the hand up on pokerlistings when it had a forum, and nearly everyone said it was the right fold. I realise there is a difference because on that hand I was reacting to a raise, but decent players try to play, not leave it to luck. My opponent turned over 99 that day. I now realise it was a good fold.

dude...why u gotta make your name the same as thasquirrel's...you can't be him, he's much cuter

 

Originally Posted by nosucout325

i want to know when you shove A10 are you hoping to get called or are you looking to take the blinds and antes. and second what hand is calling 17bbs that you beat? anytime I shove I want 1 or two things to happen a call or fold, now from the HJ CO BTN AND SB I like this shove, utg meh to each is own I guess. bishul, gags, and ktx made great points from both sides tho...glgl

Our goal here is to really pick up the blinds and pad our stack. We don't expect to get called with worse often/ever, but we could be flipping and we have a lot of FE equity shoving UTG on the FT table bubble. We have only 17bbs (as a rule of thumb, I'm not R/F with less than 18bbs) and we want more chips going into the final table as we don't have a great chance of winning being 8/9 position. This, and the fact that we are in the BB next hand are good reasons to shove here - like Bisull said above, it would be nice here to have a few more bbs to really give us the option of R/F (this would be a great alternative in this position), but on balance, I see how in this spot shoving is probably the optimal play. I would have to be very disciplined to make a fold versus the BTN shove had I opened, and this would have been rubbish with only 14bbs left and in BB next. By shoving we remove any guessing, and we just have to say 'bad luck' if we run into QQ like we did. The BB was a relative unknown but if he flats that puts us in a pretty gros spot if we miss, and in all honesty I'm not super competent post flop, so I can't say I'm able to play that spot optimally.

Ok, how about this then..they call your shove with ATs+,AJo+, 77+ and KQs..this is right from my charts, i really don't think you're getting called by much worse.

they reshove with 22+,A8s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+ which is way wider than they actually would imo.

This makes R/C the best follwed by r/f...like i said, i think regardless of how you tweak ranges OS isn't going to be best(unless the tool i use is crap and is way off)...but it doesn't take into consideration that you're taking the blinds next or that it's 5 handed on the ft bubble. I'd shove too in a 5$ i'm just doing it for arguments sake cause i don't think R/C and R/F are uber bad like everyone else is saying

The tool is merely based on the numbers. It's a starting point, you make adjustments. Like i said, it doesn't take into consideration you're taking the BB next or that you're 5 handed on the ft bubble or that you can get flatted and so on. Which is why i'd shove this spot pretty much everytime.

I think shoving is a mistake when you're in this situation at a table with players you know aren't shoving light or you know won't flat you. This is probably never happening in a 5$ mtt on stars with their massive fields. But on a site like party usually i know most players at the table i can make better decision. Most regs there are extremely tight and aren't coming after a 17bb open with anything worse and their reshove range is really tight and is almost the same as their shove call range. So i think R/F and maybe R/C specific players is justified in a spot like that.

I agree with what you're saying i'm just pointing out that shoving here isn't mathematically better than anything else and is going to be borderline at best when don't factor in anything else, just stack size, ranges, blinds and a few more things.