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Ax on the button vs the blinds.

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  1. SchruteRules SchruteRules is offline

    New Bern, NC
    United States

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    Aug 27th, 2006 (8/27/2006 1:06pm)

    Harrington says in HU play that when you hold an ace, there is a 90% chance that your opponent does not. My question is when action folds around to you and you hold Ax, what is the percentage that the blinds also hold an ace, 6 handed thru 9 handed?
  2. bgjoecool27 bgjoecool27 is offline

    Chicago, IL
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    Aug 27th, 2006 (8/27/2006 2:50pm) in reply to SchruteRules

    If it's HU, how does the action fold around to you?
  3. owl52 owl52 is offline

    Uzbekistan

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    Aug 27th, 2006 (8/27/2006 2:57pm) in reply to bgjoecool27

    raise
  4. Mojo Mojo is offline

    Markham
    Canada

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    Aug 27th, 2006 (8/27/2006 2:58pm) in reply to bgjoecool27

    My question is when action folds around to you and you hold Ax, what is the percentage that the blinds also hold an ace,<span> <span>6 handed thru 9 handed?</span></span>
  5. SchruteRules SchruteRules is offline

    New Bern, NC
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    Aug 27th, 2006 (8/27/2006 2:58pm) in reply to bgjoecool27

    ...the last 5 words of the OP.
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  6. KingPariah KingPariah is offline

    Boone, NC
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    Aug 27th, 2006 (8/27/2006 3:13pm) in reply to SchruteRules

    Maybe I'm just a complete moron..but how could the odds be different for 6 vs 9 handed..the amount of cards being dealt out shouldnt change it

    when it folds around to you, regardless of 6 or 9 handed, there are 2 left to act, so the odds (that I'm not sure of) should be exactly the same
  7. SchruteRules SchruteRules is offline

    New Bern, NC
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    Aug 27th, 2006 (8/27/2006 3:27pm) in reply to KingPariah

    I did the math long version, was wondering if anyone had seen it in a chart anywhere, odds are different as more cards out reduces the likelihood of another ace.
    Thread Starter
  8. jhill3535 jhill3535 is offline

    Russellville, AR
    United States

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    Aug 27th, 2006 (8/27/2006 3:32pm) in reply to KingPariah

    1) In HU there is only 1 other player to act as opposed to 2

    2) Some cards have been removed from the deck, and it is most likely that no one folded an A.

    The way I would figure it out is to figure the number of unknown cards in deck when it is your turnto act. If you are on the button in a 9 handed game and it folds to you and you have an A, you take 52-6*2-2. This leaves 38 unknown cards. Of these unknown cards there is a maximum of 3 Aces left in the deck, but there is a possiblility that one of the earlier players folded one, so I would assume 2.5 Aces in the unknown cards.

    The combined odds that one of the 2 players left to act has an A would be 6.6% chance that each of the 4 cards left for the other 2 players is an A. Multiply this by 4, and you get ~ 26% chance that at least one of the remaining players has an A.

    That is a pretty high likelyhood that one of them has an A. As you can see this is a little more than 2.5x the chance that your HU opponent has an A given that players earlier to act, especially LP players probably would not have folded had they had an A. So the more cards removed from the deck, and the more players left to act cause the % to go up drastically.

    Think about the odds of at least 1 player at a 9 handed table is dealt an A. There are 18 cards dealt out out of 52, and 4 of them are A's. On average 1.4 A's will be dealt out on each hand.
     
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