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Back to Back : Overrated

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  1. THAY3R THAY3R is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 6:38am)

    The odds of a person who won a main event in a 2500 person field winning the very next week is probably something like 2000 to 1(I am assuming a person who can win a 2500 person field is better than the average expectation)

    So, in a span of 12 months the chances that somebody wins it back to back is ~ 40:1 (1-0.9995^52)

    It really isn't that "ZOMG AMAZING".

    I'm not trying to take anything away from Wild Duck as a player, I just want to show you that this feat isn't as amazing as people are making it out to be.
    225 
  2. throppster throppster is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 6:41am) in reply to THAY3R

    way to piss on someones parade
  3. agriffrod agriffrod is offline 2010 WSOP #3 FT

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 6:43am) in reply to THAY3R

    It's obviously impressive but the amount of luck to make it happen is insane.
     
  4. mhoddi mhoddi is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 7:00am) in reply to THAY3R

    wait...the chance someone wins it BACK TO BACK are 40:1????

    ummmmmmmmmm ok
     
  5. THAY3R THAY3R is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 7:03am) in reply to agriffrod

    My point is "the amount of luck it takes" is nowhere close to as much as people think it does...
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  6. DoGGz DoGGz is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 7:04am) in reply to mhoddi

    mhoddi, did you even read his post?
    338 
  7. THAY3R THAY3R is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 7:04am) in reply to mhoddi

    Reading comprehension must not be your forte.
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  8. lordxixor101 lordxixor101 is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 8:03am) in reply to THAY3R

    THAY3R,

    Even though your logic seems like it could be correct (and to call the back to backs the greatest online accomplishment ever is probably a stretch), I can't help but sense a twinge of jealousy.

    Your a ranked player, I think that sort of obligates you to smile, congragulate, and bite your tongue for a few months. If this is still the greatest accomplishment in 6 months, then it's worth debating. Odds are, in a week or 2, Duck is out of the limelight, and you take your place back.

    There is really no way you can bring this up and not look jealous.
  9. JMPRODIGY JMPRODIGY is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 8:07am) in reply to lordxixor101

    sp does that mean that 1 in every 40 years it happens? isnt that like how rare haleys comment is
     
  10. apestyles apestyles is offline Moderator

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 8:13am) in reply to THAY3R

    I'd say 40:1 per year is fairly impressive still...
     282 12 

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  11. THAY3R THAY3R is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 8:14am) in reply to JMPRODIGY

    That is just for this particular event though. Factor in all of the Sunday majors and there's an even greater chance someone wins one of the majors back to back.

    Take the 100r on stars for example, Odds are that about 3 different people win that tourney back to back in a year. (Assuming 250 entrants and 730 tournies in a year)
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  12. Andy McLEOD Andy McLEOD is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 8:17am) in reply to THAY3R

    lol jesus 1 in 40 years isnt good enough for you

    what a pathetic post, it has to be said... duckU OWNS
    1
  13. THAY3R THAY3R is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 8:18am) in reply to lordxixor101

    Well, of course I'm jealous!!

    Every single person in the world is probably jealous, it's an amazing feat and alot of money.

    But I am not bitter or anything like that. I actually know/played with Duck for several years now, and have nothing but happiness for him. I just think people are mistakenly exaggerating the true odds of a feat like this occurring.
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  14. Adam Adam is offline Emperor

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 8:19am) in reply to THAY3R

    So doing something that should only happen once in every forty years isn't amazing?
     
  15. THAY3R THAY3R is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 8:23am) in reply to Adam

    blaaaaaa whatever.

    UNRANK THAY3R!
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  16. lordxixor101 lordxixor101 is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 8:49am) in reply to THAY3R

    What's with disrespecting Haley's comet here, it only comes around once every 70+ years (I think 72), so don't disrespect the comet with your compairsons to something that happens twice as often :)

    He admitted he's jealous (maybe envious is a better word here) of the situation, so I can respect that. Plus, I don't want to be too hard tn THAY3R, I like when he comments on my posts, it's part of what's made me a better player.
  17. Funkii Funkii is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 9:10am) in reply to THAY3R

    to be fair, there's a few statistical assumptions you're making that probably aren't accurate. Specifically, independence, identical distributions, and also the assumption that the guy who wins will always play next week as well. None of which are all that accurate.

    that said, having never played with this guy before, the fact that he won even ONE sunday major probably means he sucks, two in a row means he's probably the biggest donkey of all time, judging from an a priori distribution...
     
  18. supermoves supermoves is offline invented poker

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 9:14am) in reply to THAY3R

    I think you might be able to call back to back majors The Luckiest Accompishment in online poker, but IMO, not the best or most impressive. With 5500 entrants there is just too much luck needed to be consistent. Sure, you also need to be a GREAT player, but you also need a ton of luck.

    I would say winning a couple of back to back fields with 200-300 players is more likely to be skill related than winning back to back 5500-person tourneys.

    But Im also very jelious, I also think DuckU is an amazing player and you certainly have to be lucky AND an amazing player to do this. So way to go DuckU!
    1
  19. acecatcher26 acecatcher26 is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 9:44am) in reply to supermoves

    Figure up the odds of doing it in two weeks plz.
  20. JernejZorec JernejZorec is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 9:45am) in reply to supermoves

    i think something like Andy's back to back in 1k is better if one can even say that
    but all accomplishments like these 2 and other mentioned are very very impressive
  21. Milhouse52 Milhouse52 is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 9:58am) in reply to THAY3R

    Pretty sure you calculated the odds of winning twice in one year when you play every single week with a 2500 person field. This in now way calculates the chances of doing it back to back. I believe these odds to be more like 1 in 4,000,000.
  22. creeps creeps is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 10:03am) in reply to JernejZorec

    Jerne-lol. Not taking anything against ol' Andy, twice the player I am or ever will be. But you have to give respect where it is due. I know the 1k as % has better players, but you have to comprehend the NUMBER of players that were in the other ones. The odds are stacked against you, even if you go in as a favorite in every hand. DuckU had to play perfect poker for a much longer period of time and through alot more table changes. Its like comparing 2 Marathons to 2 800 meter races.
  23. HeyNiceAscot HeyNiceAscot is online now

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 10:13am) in reply to Milhouse52

    ^^^^way more realistic calculation

    40:1 is absurd. How is it realistic that a person could be expected to win 1 event in 40 tries, nonetheless the same large field back to back at 1 in 40? The odds for a good player to win are probably about 350-400:1 in a 1500+ field, but that's possibly quite leniant.

    DuckU's accomplishment is really quite amazing given the nature of this crazy game. Well done sir and good luck this Sunday.
  24. HeyNiceAscot HeyNiceAscot is online now

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 10:16am) in reply to THAY3R

    The calculation is not (1-.9995^52)...

    It's (odds of player winning event)*(odds of player winning event)....so more like (1:400)*(1:400)= 1:160,000
  25. fallaway fallaway is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 10:23am) in reply to THAY3R

    OP has it right.

    The point he is making is given he wins it one week, the probability of the repeat in a year is about 40-1.

    Where he differs from the 1,000,000+ to one crowd is that the 1,000,000+ crowd is estimating the odds before the first win and he is estimating it after.

    As long as the winning player from last week plays again everytime next week, then the chances of him repeating is about 1/2000.

    Since there are 52 of these each year a quick dirty estimate would be about 52/2000 or around 1 in 40.

    This is the chance that some player wins it back to back in a year.

    So really the argument is just in the language of the question being asked.

    Before the first win for a particular player, the odds are very long.

    Chance of repeat given first win 1/2000, over 50 weeks, 1 in 40 (again rough estimate for the exponentially impaired).

    Either way, congrats to the guy that did it!

    Go for 3, then we can end this discussion.
  26. jhill3535 jhill3535 is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 10:34am) in reply to HeyNiceAscot

    you are right that 4,000,000 - 1 is a pretty realistic calculation for the odds of a particular person to win back to back, but if it for any of the the participants, not a particular player then odds are much lower.

    The average player will win 1/2500 in a 2500 player field. His odds of winning back to back are (1/2500)^2. Now there are 2500 people and everyone has the same odds, so the odds that someone wins these 2 tournaments back to back are 1/2500, becauses someone has to win the first one and his odds are the same as everyone elses in the 2nd one.

    If a tournament runs every week for 52 weeks there are 51 sets of back to back tournaments. If all of these tournaments had the same 2500 players every week. The odds that some one wins 2 back to back during the year is about 1/49 (=1/2500/51).

    Now if you consider 4 majors per week that have 2500 entrants, the odds that someone wins a major in back to back weeks is 1/12.5 (=1/2500/51/4).

    Still something that happens once in 12.5 years is still a nice accomplishment, but I understand what THAY3R is getting at.
     
  27. jhill3535 jhill3535 is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 10:36am) in reply to jhill3535

    Actually the odds that a particular person won back to back against 2500 person fields would be 1/2500/2500 = 1/6,250,000
     
  28. JernejZorec JernejZorec is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 10:36am) in reply to creeps

    probably misunderstood there,
    its probaby the way we understand words like best, impressive etc
    its hard to express yourself over internet speciall when we all come from diffrent background

    i'm not taking anything away from anyone, after all i'm just a donk
    and i have huge amount of respect for top players, and hope one day i will be half a player that they are

    but u say he had to play perfect for much longer in sunday mtt then the 1k one,
    i could say that in million u have more donks in begining from which its easier for a good player to take chips and build a good stack

    in the end the discussion comes out as kinda pointless,
    to me all are amazing feats that require big amount of skill, and i think noone will say it doesnt require huge amount of luck to win it back to back
  29. Imustcall Imustcall is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 10:50am) in reply to jhill3535

    I think there is a lot of confusion in this post. Using the pure numbers (with no edge calculated), the odds of someone winning these two tournaments back to back is 1/6,250,000. However, each week (assuming the previous week's winner enters), that person has a one in 2500 chance of winning, so over the course of a year, there is a 1/50 chance of back to back wins happening, or once every 50 years(wow!!).

    All the OP is saying, basically, is that if he is allowed to pick the winner of this event each week and he chose the previous week's winner, he would have a 1 in 50 chance of getting it right one time this year.

    The events specifically happening for Duck is amazing, the general event happening is once every fifty years (maybe one more time in our lifetime.)

    All in how you look at it.
  30. Milhouse52 Milhouse52 is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2007 (4/26/2007 10:51am) in reply to jhill3535

    I was using the estimate of a good player having a 1 in 2000 chance to calulate the 4,000,000 to 1 odds. The simple fact is that doing this repeatedly becomes exponentially harder. Hence, back to back would be (1/2000)^2, and back to back to back would be (1/2000)^3, etc.
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