I dont have the HH so I'll try to recreate one..... Full Tilt .50-$1 NL Full Table
Daddyfatstaxx ($316.50) UTG.....(AdKc) raise to $3.50
FOLD to BB
Gameboy1234 ($182.00) BB......reraises to $10
Daddyfatstaxx calls (me)..
FLOP--- Ac 4d Ks
I check behind putting him on most likely QQ,JJ.... see if he leads turn..
TURN--- Ac 4d Ks - (10h) (pot is $20)
Gameboy bets $10
Daddyfatstaxx raises to $30
Gameboy raises to $172 All-in
Daddyfatstaxx goes into the tank..........and folds.......
I had been playing with him for about an hour and he seemed pretty solid......
1. He had AA or KK and hit the miracle flop that was supposed to stack me....
2. Then theres the 1010 possibility.....
3. I made a BAD laydown
Please give me your thoughts and opinions on this hand....
It really depends on what you know about this player . At a short handed table , a player may re-raise with a bunch of hands here . Ace queen is a possibility , as well as ace 4 if he's maniacal .
I would guess that he may have the same hand as yours , and a possibility he has ace queen .
There are 2*3 = 6 ways he may have ace queen here and 2 ways he may have a set of kings or aces and 4 ways he has ace king .
You will chop the pot one third of the time , win the pot 50 % of the time , and lose the pot 16.66 % of the time . These are reasonable estimates .
Calling should be clear "most" of the time .
I think you need to bet 1/2 the pot here on the flop. If he c/r's you or smooth calls, it's a lot easier to put him on AA or KK, or AK possibly. He could have TT here, i agree, but isn't it also possible he is making a play with QQ in this situation because you checked behind on the flop? Betting 12$ on the flop and finding out where you stand is easier than checking behind then putting in 30$ on the turn, only to find yourself faced with a tough decision with top two pair when he comes over.
Why do you say you made a bad laydown?
In response to Jay Shark, this was a 9-handed table. The BB had been pretty solid as my table image was also very solid. My raise UTG is usually limited to a small range of hands...His reraise put him on AA,KK,QQ most likely, AK,JJ, and 1010 quite possibly and AQ,AJ doubtful. I check the flop to induce action from the majority of the hands on the turn, of which I got more than I could handle...My gut was tellin me had AA,KK but I was just curious as to what you guys would do in this situation...
i think this fold is fine. It seems like you would split the pot a fair amount of time against ak, but with the range given, I would make a crying fold.
If he would play queens jacks and tens in this manner , then there are now 18 hands that you can beat ( 6 for each pair ) . There are 2 hands that beat you and 4 hands that chop the pot .
With this range , calling should be even more clear .
There are more than 2 hands that beat me.....I also doubt he was pushing allin with QQ or JJ.....I dont think making calls like these are profitable in the long run and I think i just answered my own question....Thanks for the input..
Lae , do you want me to be more specific ?
You give me all the hands you think he has an i'll give you an accurate mathematical reasoning using expectation values .