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Bad play or bad beat?

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  1. pnkranger pnkranger is offline

    Norman, OK
    United States

    Posts: 1,129
    Joined: Feb 05

    Mar 2nd, 2005 (3/2/2005 12:01pm)

    No smart alleck answers from murderer or hoddi on this one.

    I have really struggled late in tourneys...multi-table and mini-tourneys...to make it into the money...I am usually right on the cusp of cash...i.e., first place loser or 4th place in mini tourneys. The problem is...I am getting all my chips in with a HUGE advantage each time and losing.

    For instance, my last 6 tourney appearances (mini and MTT combined) ended all in pre-flop with:

    KK vs. QQ (Q on turn)
    KK vs. 99 (9 on flop)
    KK vs. AQ (A on river)
    QQ vs. Q6 (flopped two sixes on me, no bull)
    QQ vs. K5 (K on flop)
    AJ vs. KJ (K on flop)

    The seventh ended after I flopped nut flush and guy goes all in with top pair (AJ in hole, A of my suit on board) and runners a full house.

    My question is this....am I experiencing a string of bad luck, or am I just taking chances at the wrong time. The way I see it, close to the money is the perfect time to play aggressively, especially with good hands. But is it the danger of being knocked out that should keep me from getting all my chips in with these hands at this point in the tourney? Is this how the big boys stay in tourneys to the end?

    Also, if you have played with me before on Paradise, any criticism of my game would be helpful.

    Thanks all.
  2. murderer murderer is offline PM me

    Southampton
    United Kingdom

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    Mar 2nd, 2005 (3/2/2005 12:37pm) in reply to pnkranger

    LMAO

    as soon as i saw the title of this and who posted it, my mind went into overload at all the possible piss-takes i could post in response....

    THEN i read the first sentence and it says i CANT make any comments!!!

    Shame you dont use the fore-sight you've shown here on the poker table (sorry couldnt resist one!)
     
  3. Big Stacks04 Big Stacks04 is offline

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    Mar 2nd, 2005 (3/2/2005 12:40pm) in reply to pnkranger

    pnkranger,

    Without knowing the flavor of the table or the players involved I think all of these hands with exception to the "AJ all in" were not bad plays. Ultimately, you had gotten all your money in the pot with the BEST hand. Unfortunately for you they hit one of their outs. I think pre flop with KK or QQ your hard pressed to lay those down.

    hehe....f beanie
  4. pnkranger pnkranger is offline

    Norman, OK
    United States

    Posts: 1,129
    Joined: Feb 05

    Mar 2nd, 2005 (3/2/2005 1:20pm) in reply to murderer

    Murderer,

    I at least appreciate your almost restraint.

    I am serious though. I know you take some digs at me in fun...mostly, but I would welcome any criticism or comments, even tongue in cheek comments, as long as they are based in truth. For the most part I have improved my attitude and would really like to improve my game...

    Thanks.

    And the AJ all in was based on the overly aggressive play of the player and the fact that we were 5 handed. I had AJ on the button, 1600 in chips, 200/400 blinds. Folded to me...I raised to 800 (minimum raise) and small blind maniac re-raises all in with KJ. He had been playing weaker Aces that way since we went to 5 handed, so I made a tough call as I was basically committed...but he caught the three outer on the flop.
    Thread Starter
  5. jsbyun jsbyun is offline

    Pleasanton, CA
    United States

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    Mar 2nd, 2005 (3/2/2005 3:46pm) in reply to Big Stacks04

    Looks like a string a bad luck. Not much you can do about it except maybe take a break from poker for a little while. That's what I do and it seems to work pretty good.
  6. sophiea sophiea is offline

    Okemos, MI
    United States

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    Mar 2nd, 2005 (3/2/2005 4:25pm) in reply to jsbyun

    agree with j... just take a few days off. It may be hard to do, but clear your head, get the good vibes going again. They were mostly "bad beats" and frankly those bad runs hit all of us. I find getting away, going to the gym and getting my ions back in balance seems to help.
  7. drinkceo drinkceo is offline

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    Mar 2nd, 2005 (3/2/2005 4:35pm) in reply to pnkranger

    After reading jsbyn and adam's discussion I removed the post do to confusion. Sry about the confusion. I recommend pulling each of your posts off, jsbyn the events aren't mutually exclusive as stated in your post (onus on my writing), they are independent, and Adam, probability of success in a sequence of independent events does nothing to explain the chance of failure, only adding to the confusion (again onus on my writing)... What I should have written is, mathematically you should lose one out of 5 hands when your best starting hand has an 80% win rate, therefore, your TOURNAMENT's failure rate will be 100% if it is an "all in" situation.
  8. jsbyun jsbyun is offline

    Pleasanton, CA
    United States

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    Mar 2nd, 2005 (3/2/2005 4:56pm) in reply to drinkceo

    You have a valid point, but you need to brush up on the probabilities. For mutually exclusive events, you don't add up the individual probabilities to get a total. Hence your 100% failure rate, which is obviously incorrect even using common sense.
  9. Adam Adam is offline Emperor

    Atlanta, GA
    United States

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    Mar 2nd, 2005 (3/2/2005 5:31pm) in reply to drinkceo

    Yes, the probabilities here are not correct. You don't take certain statistical factors into account. If you have an 80% chance to win a hand in 5 different hands, that doesn't mean that you're going to lose one of them 100% of the time. It just means that you will likely lose one of them.

    The actual math, where P1 is the probability of winning hand 1, P2 prob of winning hand 2, etc, is as follows:

    P(all) = P1 x P2 x P3 x P4 x P5, so if you go in as 80% 5 times, you actually have a 32.7% chance of winning all 5.

    These events are all independent, so it's not as if what has happened in one of them affects what will happen in future events---that is, there are no "given" probabilities to be taken into account, such as P1 given P2, etc.
     
  10. yogiblair yogiblair is offline

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    Mar 2nd, 2005 (3/2/2005 5:42pm) in reply to Adam

    Ok this is my first post and I love all the discussion ( I am learning a great deal).

    After saying that, I now know why I lose .....I am playing against mathamaticians...WOW

    Just curious if you are RAINMAN (563 toothpics) or something Adam?? lol
    Seriously though thanks for the info.

    It must be BEANIE aka SATAN SPAWN's fault!!
  11. pnkranger pnkranger is offline

    Norman, OK
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    Mar 2nd, 2005 (3/2/2005 5:44pm) in reply to Adam

    Many of these hands were toward the end of tourneys when the blinds are at critical levels in relation to the size of my stack.

    Each of the three KK hands, I was in the final 15 of a $100K Satellite tourney at UB, and each time I lost the all in hand (with my stack at about 7X the blinds) to finish 13th.

    But I see what you are saying. And Adam, your numbers drive the point home quite well.

    I think a lot of my problem has been relying on the big hands to carry me through rather than playing fundamental poker and "milking" the little hands for all they're worth. My game could definitely stand to loosen up a little in the early stages with the small blinds.

    And, murderer, I know you're dying to butcher me...so slay away, funny man. Slay away.
    Thread Starter
  12. mhoddi mhoddi is offline

    Western Sahara

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    Mar 2nd, 2005 (3/2/2005 5:54pm) in reply to pnkranger

    how come he gets permission?
     
  13. pnkranger pnkranger is offline

    Norman, OK
    United States

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    Mar 2nd, 2005 (3/2/2005 5:57pm) in reply to mhoddi

    Alright, hoddi...tear in. Take your best shot. I can take it...though I will spend the next week eating Ben and Jerry's and crying into my pillow. Better than biting my pillow, I guess.
    Thread Starter
  14. drinkceo drinkceo is offline

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    Mar 2nd, 2005 (3/2/2005 6:21pm) in reply to Adam

    Nevermind
  15. jsbyun jsbyun is offline

    Pleasanton, CA
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    Mar 2nd, 2005 (3/2/2005 6:33pm) in reply to drinkceo

    At least before I thought I knew what you were talking about. Now I don't know what you saying anymore.
  16. shiZZa shiZZa is offline

    Alpharetta, GA
    United States

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    Mar 2nd, 2005 (3/2/2005 8:26pm) in reply to pnkranger

    I had a similar problem for about a month. Although you are getting outdrawn I think the biggest problem that you can control is your chipstack and table image. If you raise in position with KK shorthanded and you are shortstacked with 7x BB and someone wakes up with anything decent they are most likely going to call especially if your style of play and stack do not make them "fear" you. After they call your all in bet it's up to chance and of course it only takes one bad beat to force you out of the tourney when you are covered.
  17. Skawty88 Skawty88 is offline

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    Mar 2nd, 2005 (3/2/2005 9:17pm) in reply to pnkranger

    when u put it that way i feel so content with losing all in to a smaller pocket pair.lol. plus i could always f beanie cause in the end. . .it really is him who is at fault.
     
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