[Vekked]

Shove/flat/fold... and why?

pokerstars Game #31333565802: Tournament #183606618, $50+$5 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2009/08/06 21:47:04 ET
Table '183606618 82' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: beatenbypalm (2790 in chips)
Seat 2: cfslugfest (2870 in chips)
Seat 3: TommyE79 (3000 in chips)
Seat 4: Vekked (2970 in chips)
Seat 5: catastrophe (3420 in chips)
Seat 6: Stonerville (6040 in chips)
Seat 7: FULMER08 (2760 in chips)
Seat 8: andethegreat (2665 in chips)
Seat 9: KingNick01 (3685 in chips)
beatenbypalm: posts small blind 15
cfslugfest: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Vekked [Qc Qs]
TommyE79: folds
Vekked: raises 60 to 90
catastrophe: calls 90
Stonerville: folds
FULMER08: folds
andethegreat: folds
KingNick01: folds
beatenbypalm: folds
cfslugfest: calls 60
*** FLOP *** [6d Jh 9h]
cfslugfest: checks
Vekked: bets 210
catastrophe: raises 510 to 720
cfslugfest: folds
Vekked: ... ?

[Vekked]

any thoughts?

[goofy2485 This thread sucks.]

Shove and beat AJ/KJ

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[Donnie2005.2]

Meh, I just fold- still plenty of chips, its too early to be messing around with these idiots with QQ imo

And fwiw, I open shove QQ+ for first 30 min of a lot of tournies

[The Spewtard]

It's a shove or fold and I probably go the former unless Im playing a regular (solid player). I don't like flatting for a number of reasons. For one, flatting the reraise commits like 1/4 of ur chips. If the turn bricks, you tempt yourself into getting it in anyway. If the turn is a h, A or K, you have a super tough decision to make in a now massive pot.

[Im a fn sta]

ez shoveaments

[Sdanby]

how many times have you had this situation, shoved, won and not even thought about posting the hand?

[calhoun137]

Im prolly missing something, but this looks like an easy shove imo.

If he's on a semi bluff, then I want to either give him a chance to fold or else get him to commit his chips when hes a dog. I think a semibluff is a big part of his range, and if I just flat then I dont know which draw he has and a K or A will be scary, as well as cards that complete flushes and straights.

If he has a hand like top pair, then I want to give him a chance to fold before he makes two pair or trips, because its highly possible I wont be getting many more chips out of this opponent that I cant get by just reraising on the flop.

If he has a set or an unlikely two pair, then so be it, but this looks like his range is wide enough on this draw heavy board to shove it.

[hoorayforjaded]

 

Originally Posted by goofy2485

Shove and beat AJ/KJ

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^^^^ this.

But it sure does suck when he shows up with sixes.

I like the shove though.

[hoorayforjaded]

 

Originally Posted by calhoun137

Im prolly missing something, but this looks like an easy shove imo.

If he's on a semi bluff, then I want to either give him a chance to fold or else get him to commit his chips when hes a dog. I think a semibluff is a big part of his range, and if I just flat then I dont know which draw he has and a K or A will be scary, as well as cards that complete flushes and straights.

If he has a hand like top pair, then I want to give him a chance to fold before he makes two pair or trips, because its highly possible I wont be getting many more chips out of this opponent that I cant get by just reraising on the flop.

If he has a set or an unlikely two pair, then so be it, but this looks like his range is wide enough on this draw heavy board to shove it.

Perfect analysis.

[Vekked]

Thanks for the replies. I'm not so sure that it's an 'easy' shove, if it is a shove...

The reason I posted it was to get some other replies as it's pretty much an identical situation to a hand I posted on 2p2 where I initially presumed that it was an 'easy' shove, but most of the replies from that hand lead me to believe that it wasn't, which were mostly players who's games I really respect.

I didn't post because of results, but because it's not really a great spot. I think the people who really love getting it in here should step back and re-evaluate, since I doubt you're getting it in for 100BB in great shape vs. anyone who's not a monkey. The bottom of their range is likely AJ, then a lot of AK/AQhh type hands or pair + FDs, then sets and bigger pairs... there's no reason why KK+ isn't just as likely as AJ.

Thanks for the analysis calhoun, the only thing that I would say, though, is that I think you're not giving his raise quite enough credit. Sure, he *could* have a dry flush draw or junky top pair, but thus far I have no info to presume that he's a monkey, so I'd rather make the smaller mistake by giving him a bit more credit. I think his raise here given the position that he called my raise from pre-flop + the fact that there is still 1 more player to act after him that could have something is a pretty strong line.

I would say that he is raise/folding here <10% of the time, probably closer to 0. Most of the draws we get it in with are slightly ahead or pretty much flipping, not big dogs. Then there's sets and overpairs that have us drawing to 2 outs. On the other hand there are top pairs that we crush too but which have 5 outs against us most times. I think that vs. this entire range we're not in that great of shape, but maybe it's close enough to make it profitable to get it in. But that's what I'm trying to figure out.