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Bet sizing: What would optimal bet sizing be on river? in pos. 180 MTT

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  1. HUSTLEHERO HUSTLEHERO is offline

    Toronto
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    May 1st, 2012 (5/1/2012 5:44pm)

    Hey V in this case is 48/10 over 40 hands and previously called down with draws to the river

    I'm wondering if I should be raising on the river in this spot? and if so the thought process behind it.
    thanks a ton, please don't rip into me too hard this is my first post. - I can't seem to find the hand history paster if pocket 5's has one?



    No Limit Hold'em Tournament T50/T100
    Buy-in: $50+$5 USD Hold'em No Limit
    pokerstars
    9 players

    Stacks:
    UTG - kriptorij (T2,100)
    UTG+1 - kassike (T2,552)
    UTG+2 - MsDueceyDuke (T3,525)
    MP - HeavenKQ (T3,488)
    MP2 - Camogie (T2,660)
    CO - Hero (T8,250)
    BTN - Lelya127 (T3,155)
    SB - cathy1card (T2,700)
    BB - Fokababy20 (T3,805)

    Preflop: (T150, 9 players) Hero is CO with 7s Js
    kriptorij calls T100, 1 fold, MsDueceyDuke calls T100, HeavenKQ calls T100, 1 fold, Hero calls T100, Lelya127 calls T100, cathy1card calls T50, Fokababy20 checks

    Flop: Td As 7h (T700, 7 players)
    cathy1card bets T200, 4 folds, Hero calls T200, Lelya127 calls T200

    Turn: 7d (T1,300, 3 players)
    cathy1card bets T300, Hero raises to T900, 1 fold, cathy1card calls T600

    River: Qc (T3,100, 2 players)
    cathy1card bets T300, Hero ???
    Edited By: HUSTLEHERO May 1st, 2012 at 05:46 PM
  2. djdoodoo djdoodoo is offline

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    May 1st, 2012 (5/1/2012 5:46pm) in reply to HUSTLEHERO

    I would raise because if he had a set and therefore a full house he'd probably jam on you on the turn. Raise it for value. The only had that beats you now is a set if he played it really awkwardly or a better 7. He probably has Ax something.
  3. tyson219 tyson219 is online now Moderator

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    May 1st, 2012 (5/1/2012 7:12pm) in reply to HUSTLEHERO

    I'd rather iso pre or fold.

    As played, the only hand that improves on the river is KJ. I wouldn't be too concerned about that hand and would raise for value since someone with those stats/the history you mentioned probably won't fold a pair.
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  4. AFink93 AFink93 is offline

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    May 1st, 2012 (5/1/2012 10:14pm) in reply to tyson219

    Probably would have folded flop bet.. As played villan doesnt have much left I'd raise exactly enough to put her all in. Makes them think your bullying them and you might get a light call.
  5. nosucout325 nosucout325 is offline

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    May 1st, 2012 (5/1/2012 10:44pm) in reply to AFink93

    what does the 48/10 mean, i have never used any poker software, but yeah i would raise also, that 300 dinky bet looks like she is trying to get a showdown for cheap.
  6. 20_09elino 20_09elino is offline

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    May 1st, 2012 (5/1/2012 11:59pm) in reply to nosucout325

    Its mean he raises 10 per cent of hands and overall plays 48 per cent. Which is quite fishy yet only over a few hands
  7. HUSTLEHERO HUSTLEHERO is offline

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    May 2nd, 2012 (5/2/2012 9:02pm) in reply to tyson219

    Thanks. Betting R for value Makes sense given vs' call station stats. I just was really afraid of KJ, but I reckon V would then be not be smart enough / level to minraise river, thinking I would jam,

    I totally wasn't calibrating range and river bet sizing properly!
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  8. bonflizubi bonflizubi is offline

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    May 2nd, 2012 (5/2/2012 9:21pm) in reply to sirjwab

    Fold pre. But as played raise for value and call a shove.
     
  9. HUSTLEHERO HUSTLEHERO is offline

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    May 2nd, 2012 (5/2/2012 9:51pm) in reply to bonflizubi

    thanks those lines make sense, raising for value to call a shove.

    now conceptually, can you please let me know where I'm going wrong in my thinking that calling with J7 suited is correct given the passivity of the table, and my position, and chip position, would I have decent implied odds and have ok pot odds?
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  10. Jason2890 Jason2890 is offline plays plo for overlays

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    May 3rd, 2012 (5/3/2012 5:20am) in reply to HUSTLEHERO

    Because you're calling with J7 suited either hoping to flop trip 7s, a weak flush draw of sorts, or an oddball straight where you'd still be losing to QJ. J7 will get you into trouble, since flopping a jack has a high likelihood of you being outkicked in a multiway pot, and you are bound to put more money in behind when the flop comes something like 9 7 2. Just let marginal hands like this go, or if you're going to play them, at least raise to thin the field so you have a chance to take the pot down with a c-bet at least.
  11. HUSTLEHERO HUSTLEHERO is offline

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    May 3rd, 2012 (5/3/2012 3:54pm) in reply to Jason2890

     
    Originally Posted by Jason2890 View Post

    Because you're calling with J7 suited either hoping to flop trip 7s, a weak flush draw of sorts, or an oddball straight where you'd still be losing to QJ. J7 will get you into trouble, since flopping a jack has a high likelihood of you being outkicked in a multiway pot, and you are bound to put more money in behind when the flop comes something like 9 7 2. Just let marginal hands like this go, or if you're going to play them, at least raise to thin the field so you have a chance to take the pot down with a c-bet at least.

    Thanks. yeah okay. I think i get it. J7 suited is just way to marginal m-way, and basically even if i hit say a flush (which i think its like 114:1) against, NOT bearing that its' not the nut flush, and I'm paying 4.5: 1, so theoretically making a mistake. Wondering what my range should be for calling in that spot like AXs, any pocket, and say t9s+?
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