UKIPT 550 euro event.
10 left from 700 entrants, 80 paid, 5 handed tables but 1 guy has left table so we are 4 handed

12k/24k, 400k stack UTG 4 handed

I have very tight image after being card dead pretty much all of day 3

BTN is a very good aggressive player but who also seems to have been having a card dead day 3 also.

BB, is a guy with 750k, who has managed to get his stack up to that from 30k @10k/20k believe it or not..
He seems fairly good having spent a while on his table earlier, and seems to being going back into solid mode after kind of luckboxing his way to 750k (was ahead almost everytime but still)

payout structure fairly top heavy.
1st prize 83k, top 4 over 20k.
9th-5th around 6k-15k
and finally 4k for 10th
Maybe important for ICM reasons.
one or two 15-20BB shortstacks are still in.

Finally the hand. UTG 4 handed (400k stack) 12k/24k
UTG Dealt:99
UTG Raise 52k
BTN raise 113k (800k stack)
SB Folds
BB allin 750k
The BB thought for around 10 seconds and announced all in.

On me with 99. 1st time i seen the BB 4 bet all day. maybe 3 hours with him. btn was aggressive and we had a little bit of 3 betting history both ways at different times in the tourney but it was fairly civilised.

So my question is What Do I do?

EDIT: Thanks for the responses. Raised hoping to get 3b and get it in, but this 4b n the ft bubble with a guy who finally had an ok stack to relax I figured it was insta fold vs a range that is ALWAYS very close to a range of AK/JJ+ (maybe TT) If I have AK here i go with it definitely but folded 99. As it turned out, btn had 3b with T3o and BB had AK, BB wins the pot pre so avoided the flip (which isnt necessarily a good thing at all), and still ended up coming tenth.

commenator said about the hand "facing that sort of action, u've gotta think 9's are in very good shape" Any1 make sense of that??

3 hours without 4 betting really isnt a long time though. its like 50 mins online.

Funny how i was watching this on TV last night!

Yeh as played i would fold given the action i dont think 99 is ever good here, I think i might just shove pre though so i dont get into this kinda spot

Man what a sick spot 4 handed. I mean the BB could be jamming super wide but it's unlikely live but he could also be super tight. If he's aware of the situation and a good player I side towards calling but that's just sooo tough to do live. It's close enough that I would want to know what kind of other stacks there are at the other tables. Are there any micro stacks or are you the shortest? Are there 2-3 others right around your stack?

You'd probably have to do some ICM calculations to figure this one out. Could the button 3 bet / fold here? Would the BB 4 bet stuff like AA/KK? If you take those hands out of the equation by saying yes then it's getting closer to a call. I probably fold but hate myself for it, stacks at the other table pending.

I'd probably fold. Live, players aren't 4betting in spots like the BB just did with 88- very often. We're a flip at best, 20% dog at worst (and fairly often). We also still have BTN's hand to worry about.

Tough spot, my tendency are to fold here but I certainly give too much credit to the reshover. I love to spot guys that put pression on the bubble but live it is kinda hard to overshove 99 to a 4bet here. If you would have told that concerned ppl are LAG, this would be a no brainer but the tightness of these guys kinda scare and smell PP like 88-JJ/QQ...

No antes ??

 

Originally Posted by Drewace34

Live I think this is a fold. Great descriptions with everything though. I def agree with scarypooper that people dont just tool out 4b jam on FT bubbles. Unless the BB is some sicko that we can credit being capable I'm pretty oi this spot.

I def hate the jam pre 4 handed I think there's a lot more value in r/c. I mean it's just lol that this happens behind us which will ultimately lead us into changing our plan and most likely for the better.

Really? So what hands are we getting value from that will 3 bet jam or call our 4bet jam that we don't get value from when we jam pre? It's my experience in live that ppl don't go crazy with mid/small pairs. They def don't understand fold equity so if someone 3b jams on him you can bet that its for value (in their view).

 

Originally Posted by Mr Galt

What was your plan when deciding to open? Did you ever plan to r/f? Seems like fold pre if you are not calling here.

I am sure raise/call all in was the plan. As others have said, just because this *was* our plan, doesn't mean we need to still go with it when we see there's not one, but two other very interested parties in this pot.

 

Originally Posted by Drewace34

Maybe we can get someone to 3b fold a % of the time or 3b call with worse pairs...what ever it maybe I really can't see how a r/c isn't better than a jam. Sure will be racing more against some AJx type hands but I think by jamming we are never folding out worse so why not give our opponents some rope to tool out. Not to mention if crazy action does occur (like in this spot) we can free roll our way to the next hand and avoid a cooler.

Meh if ur 3bet folding vs a guy with 16bb behind...i guess someone is dumb enough to do that but that is pretty horrid. i actually think you have a better chance of getting action vs smaller pairs by jamming just cause bad players will often put you on one hand and this looks a lot like ak, aq.

Yeah i mean you do get a chance to get away here but in general making big folds 4 handed at ft bubble is overrated. I don't think open shoving is as bad as you think it is here.

 

Originally Posted by TheVillageGrinder

Meh if ur 3bet folding vs a guy with 16bb behind...i guess someone is dumb enough to do that but that is pretty horrid. i actually think you have a better chance of getting action vs smaller pairs by jamming just cause bad players will often put you on one hand and this looks a lot like ak, aq.

Yeah i mean you do get a chance to get away here but in general making big folds 4 handed at ft bubble is overrated. I don't think open shoving is as bad as you think it is here.

I def agree, but doesnt leave out the window of a guy 3b/c with worse to isolate a short stack showdown. I do this a ton where I'll take a 3b call line with a mediocre holding knowin that original raiser is both fairly short and capable of folding a ton of his opening range.

Edit: these are spots you can apply a ridic amount of pressure in huge spots especially live

 

Originally Posted by TheVillageGrinder

Yeah this probably a leak in my game cause I think i give people too much credit thinking that they understand stack sizes when then really don't. Just because I don't like to open fold with 16bbs behind doesn't mean other ppl won't. I tend to not get involved with stacks of that size unless I have it.

But I do see your point. I have very little live experience, but from what I've seen, I'm sure that this is probably a very profitable play vs. live donks.

I think dynamic has to be perfect, but i find most live donks will hero fold hands that they should be profitably 4b for value with, so with that being said 3b calling in these spots with these stack sizes I think is extremely valuey (could be a leak theory of mine as well)

 

Originally Posted by TheVillageGrinder

Ok, I mean I thought I understood what you meant: 3b more vs dolts deep who will likely fold out hands they should be 4b with. But what I don't get then, is if that's true, then they're gonna be 4betting a pretty small % of the deck-so why would 3bet calling these players with marginal holding be profitable?

Depends on what their stack sizes are. At a certain point it doesn't matter the math is going to be a call regardless of how narrow his range might be. Just can't be 3b folding to stacks that are less than 18-20bbs. If your punishing them enough where you just been pickin up tons of uncontested pots by 3b, they're eventually either going to pick up a hand or spazz out. Also, not the worst to be 3b calling b/c their original 4b range might have widen since your initial read due to them reaching their boiling point, slight tilt etc..

but there is no antes, so do we really want to open shove 11.1 pot bets OTCO with that strong of a hand ? it makes our life easier for sure but i do believe its not the optimal play. it balances the times when we over shove light but who wants to overshove that light almost 12 pot bets live with no antes and icm involved anyways ?

that being said, now as played we have to fold imo.

no he didn't specify, thats why i assumed there were no antes. it def changes things imo.

yup, thanks thevillage.

dean, do you still ship like jacks or higher here for a M slightly over 9 ? aren't we supposed to make a lot more money by mostly raise/calling cause of all the smaller pairs that should feel confortable re shipping on us but not confortable calling an overshove ?