Here's the info. Top 3 Get a $12k wsop package. We are down to about 100 out of 750. I've seen villain reraise about 4 times in last hour with AQ or AK From BB. Then proceed to bet big, or shove it in, vs a smaller stack, after whiffing the flop. He's playing a very aggressive game. I had already checked one of the data sites for everyone at my table, and this guy has only played about 17 tourney's since Jan 2009, but they were all bigger buy in events. 11 were $215 buy ins, one was a $650 buy in, one was a $162 buy in, and the last few were mostly $55 buy ins. He has 2 money finishes in those events, both for only about $1500.

Now this hand comes up.

PokerStars Game #27751470543: Tournament #158384083, 4000FPP Hold'em No Limit - Level XIV (250/500) - 2009/05/02 16:45:15 PT [2009/05/02 19:45:15 ET]
Table '158384083 4' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: TonyF74 (30265 in chips)
Seat 2: daveyboy-67 (19953 in chips)
Seat 3: AllanTG (33840 in chips)
Seat 4: TWINTURBO88 (16104 in chips)
Seat 5: simona01 (7830 in chips)
Seat 6: CroBoban77 (16795 in chips)
Seat 7: Ez Duzit99 (25756 in chips)
Seat 8: blulineJ (5750 in chips)
Seat 9: kimmmddd (12942 in chips)
TonyF74: posts the ante 60
daveyboy-67: posts the ante 60
AllanTG: posts the ante 60
TWINTURBO88: posts the ante 60
simona01: posts the ante 60
CroBoban77: posts the ante 60
Ez Duzit99: posts the ante 60
blulineJ: posts the ante 60
kimmmddd: posts the ante 60
TonyF74: posts small blind 250
daveyboy-67: posts big blind 500
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ez Duzit99 [6d 6s]
AllanTG: raises 500 to 1000
TWINTURBO88: folds
simona01: folds
CroBoban77: folds
Ez Duzit99: calls 1000
blulineJ: folds
kimmmddd: folds
TonyF74: raises 4000 to 5000
daveyboy-67: folds
AllanTG: folds
Ez Duzit99: calls 4000
*** FLOP *** [7c 9s Jc]
TonyF74: bets 25205 and is all-in
Ez Duzit99: ??? <span>I turn to my friend watching me play, and say, "I'm 90% sure he has either AK or AQ."
</span>

<span>I'm thinking about it as the timers going, and it just seems too much like he doesn't want a call. So should I make this call or not, based on my read, which I am very confident in?
</span>

I think if your very confident in your read he has nothing then yea its a call.

Sounds like you're pretty sure about this. Gut instincts are key here, so if your gut is screaming that he whiffed, stick it in.

 

Originally Posted by the_schmenx

What was your plan when you flatted 5k pre with a 25k stack?

If you don't know that, don't flat 5k pre with 66 with a 25k stack.

Actually, that was exactly my plan. I would have reraised any bet all in, on any flop with no Q, K, or Ace. With a Q or above on the flop I shut down without a set. That was my plan. But when he shoved, I asked myself how confident I was on my read, and I was actually pretty sure.

 

Originally Posted by Easy Duzit

 

Originally Posted by the_schmenx

What was your plan when you flatted 5k pre with a 25k stack?

If you don't know that, don't flat 5k pre with 66 with a 25k stack.

Actually, that was exactly my plan. I would have reraised any bet all in, on any flop with no Q, K, or Ace. With a Q or above on the flop I shut down without a set. That was my plan. But when he shoved, I asked myself how confident I was on my read, and I was actually pretty sure.

It's kind of wishful thinking, and I'd say the chances of AK AQ is a bit lower than 90, but if you are flatting this with the intention of calling on that type of flop you got to follow through. You are going to have to take some chances with only 3 people getting a seat, it's not the worst stab in the world.

 

Originally Posted by riverdrowns

 

Originally Posted by the_schmenx

 

Originally Posted by riverdrowns

you should be folding preflop to the utg raise imo.

Explain why

ok well i guess flatting the 1k is fine but once its 3bet to 5k you have to fold there. you really cant put 1/5th of your stack in pre if youre set mining.

It doesn't sound like he's set mining though, he's going to go with it on a lot of different types of flops.

 

Originally Posted by riverdrowns

 

Originally Posted by the_schmenx

 

Originally Posted by riverdrowns

 

Originally Posted by the_schmenx

 

Originally Posted by riverdrowns

you should be folding preflop to the utg raise imo.

Explain why

ok well i guess flatting the 1k is fine but once its 3bet to 5k you have to fold there. you really cant put 1/5th of your stack in pre if youre set mining.

It doesn't sound like he's set mining though, he's going to go with it on a lot of different types of flops.

i just think your comitting too much of your stack to hope certain cards dont hit the flop. I dont really think you can put villain on only AK/AQ here. Over cards are going to hit the flop almost every time and he probably is going to cbet every flop and you just have no idea where youre at.

Fold Pre......you aren't getting the correct implied odds to be set mining in MP w/ 25BB's

One thing that doesnt make sense to me is if you are 100% sure he has AK/AQ then why not just get it in preflop? Why put in 1/5th of your stack pre only to fold on a lot of flops?

 

Originally Posted by Easy Duzit

Because if an ace, K, or Q hit the board I can get away and still have a decent stack. I was at this table for about 90 minutes, and had a pretty good feel about this guy. This hand was very read based. If I felt he had a big pair, I wouldn't have called.

i just dont see why you know for sure he doesnt have a big pair here. would his 3bet size be different?

btw, awesome post.. it kills me seeing the "i have AK should i call preflop" posts or the "i have KK i think he has AA" posts.. kills me seein those.. this post is definitely good and finally makes us think

 

Originally Posted by riverdrowns

 

Originally Posted by Easy Duzit

Because if an ace, K, or Q hit the board I can get away and still have a decent stack. I was at this table for about 90 minutes, and had a pretty good feel about this guy. This hand was very read based. If I felt he had a big pair, I wouldn't have called.

i just dont see why you know for sure he doesnt have a big pair here. would his 3bet size be different?

Like I said, it was a read based play. I also thought with aces or kings he reraises less to get action, and he probably doesn't shove the flop with either, but makes a healthy value bet instead. I was pretty confident in my read.

Thanks for all the responces.

Here's what happened.

TonyF74: bets 25205 and is all-in
Ez Duzit99: calls 20696 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (4509) returned to TonyF74
*** TURN *** [7c 9s Jc] [7d]
*** RIVER *** [7c 9s Jc 7d] [Kd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
TonyF74: shows [Ac Kc] (two pair, Kings and Sevens)
Ez Duzit99: shows [6d 6s] (two pair, Sevens and Sixes)
TonyF74 collected 53432 from pot
daveyboy-67 said, "harsh"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 53432 | Rake 0
Board [7c 9s Jc 7d Kd]
Seat 1: TonyF74 (small blind) showed [Ac Kc] and won (53432) with two pair, Kings and Sevens
Seat 2: daveyboy-67 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: AllanTG folded before Flop
Seat 4: TWINTURBO88 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: simona01 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: CroBoban77 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Ez Duzit99 showed [6d 6s] and lost with two pair, Sevens and Sixes
Seat 8: blulineJ folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: kimmmddd (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

 

Originally Posted by wheel son

btw, awesome post.. it kills me seeing the "i have AK should i call preflop" posts or the "i have KK i think he has AA" posts.. kills me seein those.. this post is definitely good and finally makes us think

level? It's a disguised bad beat post by one of the thousands of players who constantly "put you on AK." 90% sure he has AQ or AK? That's a damn tight range. Sick read, man. Sick.

I guess I admire your courage here, but flatting a UTG raise, then calling a reraise for 20% of your stack pre only to call of the rest of your stack when 3 overs hit because you think he has one of two hands you beat isn't the best way to play a 50+ bb stack.