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Blinds are high bubble SNG

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  1. Jack_Diamondz Jack_Diamondz is offline

    Australia

    Posts: 183
    Joined: Apr 07

    Jan 11th, 2008 (1/11/2008 3:37pm)

    Why do I get the feeling I'm supposed to fold this spot?

    pokerstars Game #14484707899: Tournament #73468698, $15+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2008/01/11 - 16:14:43 (ET)
    Table '73468698 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
    Seat 2: RPatterson (3335 in chips)
    Seat 3: fourbyrne (2890 in chips)
    Seat 4: JackDiamondz (3825 in chips)
    Seat 9: DrDeep69 (3450 in chips)
    RPatterson: posts the ante 25
    fourbyrne: posts the ante 25
    JackDiamondz: posts the ante 25
    DrDeep69: posts the ante 25
    RPatterson: posts small blind 200
    fourbyrne: posts big blind 400
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to JackDiamondz [Jc Kh]
    JackDiamondz: raises 800 to 1200
    DrDeep69: folds
    RPatterson: folds
    fourbyrne: raises 1665 to 2865 and is all-in
    JackDiamondz: calls 1665
    *** FLOP *** [5s Kc 2h]
    *** TURN *** [5s Kc 2h] [3c]
    *** RIVER *** [5s Kc 2h 3c] [7s]
    *** SHOW DOWN ***
    fourbyrne: shows [Kd Ad] (a pair of Kings)
    JackDiamondz: shows [Jc Kh] (a pair of Kings - lower kicker)
    fourbyrne collected 6030 from pot
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 6030 | Rake 0
    Board [5s Kc 2h 3c 7s]
    Seat 2: RPatterson (small blind) folded before Flop
    Seat 3: fourbyrne (big blind) showed [Kd Ad] and won (6030) with a pair of Kings
    Seat 4: JackDiamondz showed [Jc Kh] and lost with a pair of Kings
    Seat 9: DrDeep69 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
  2. saukendar saukendar is offline

    United States

    Posts: 1,235
    Joined: Mar 07

    Jan 11th, 2008 (1/11/2008 4:22pm) in reply to Jack_Diamondz

    Here is the ICM. You are supposed to open push with 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K8o+ Q5s+ Q9o+ J7s+ J9o+ T6s+ T9o 96s+ 86s+ 75s+ 65s 54s and he is supposed to move in if you opened and it folds to him with 88+ A9s+ ATo+. So in general well played except open raising to 1200 with 2600 behind sucked. At this point a raise isn't a vaild option, push or fold is it.

    Level: 200.0/400.0/25.0
    Structure: 0.5/0.3/0.2
    Players: 4
    Runtime: 163ms [300 Iterations]

    <TABLE class=simple cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=3 border=1><TBODY><TR><TH>Player</TH><TH>Stack</TH><TH>Push%</TH><TH>EQPre</TH><TH>EQPost</TH><TH>EQDiff</TH></TR><TR><TD>CO</TD><TD>3825.0</TD><TD>40.9%</TD><TD>0.2708</TD><TD>0.2803</TD><TD>0.00948</TD></TR><TR><TD>BU</TD><TD>3450.0</TD><TD>47.2%</TD><TD>0.2544</TD><TD>0.2645</TD><TD>0.01011</TD></TR><TR><TD>SB</TD><TD>3335.0</TD><TD>98.2%</TD><TD>0.2489</TD><TD>0.2462</TD><TD>-0.00271</TD></TR><TR><TD>BB</TD><TD>2890.0</TD><TD><TD>0.2259</TD><TD>0.209</TD><TD>-0.01688</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

    Explanation:
    • <LI>Stack: Players stack before posting blinds. <LI>Push%: Percentage of hands a player open-pushes. <LI>EQPre: ICM equity before blinds. <LI>EQPost: ICM equity after hand. <LI>EQDiff: ICM equity change during hand.</LI>

    <TABLE class=simple cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=3 border=1><TBODY><TR><TH width=40>PU</TH><TH width=40>CA</TH><TH width=40>OC</TH><TH>Range</TH></TR><TR><TD>CO</TD><TD><TD><TD>40.9%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K8o+ Q5s+ Q9o+ J7s+ J9o+ T6s+ T9o 96s+ 86s+ 75s+ 65s 54s </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>BU</TD><TD><TD>2.6%, TT+ AKs </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD><TD>SB</TD><TD>0.5%, AA </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>0.5%, AA </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>SB</TD><TD><TD>3.8%, TT+ AQs+ AKo </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>0.5%, AA </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD><TD>8.3%, 88+ A9s+ ATo+ </TD></TR><TR><TD>BU</TD><TD><TD><TD>47.2%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K5o+ Q3s+ Q9o+ J5s+ J9o+ T6s+ T8o+ 96s+ 98o 85s+ 75s+ 64s+ 54s </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>SB</TD><TD><TD>5.4%, 99+ AJs+ AQo+ </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>0.5%, AA </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD><TD>10.3%, 77+ A8s+ A9o+ KQs </TD></TR><TR><TD>SB</TD><TD><TD><TD>98.2%, 22+ 8x+ 72s+ 73o+ 4x+ 32s </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD><TD>26.4%, 44+ A2s+ A4o+ K6s+ K9o+ Q9s+ QTo+ JTs </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

    Explanation:
    • <LI>PU: Pushing Player. Applies when no other player entered the pot yet. <LI>CA: Calling Player. Player pushes after another player (PU) is already in the pot. <LI>OC: OverCalling Player. Player pushes after two other players (PU, CA) are already in the pot.</LI>
  3. threebanger threebanger is offline

    United States

    Posts: 5,094
    Joined: Sep 07

    Jan 11th, 2008 (1/11/2008 4:40pm) in reply to saukendar

    I must have a lot to learn about ICM cause there is no way I'm the chipleader and open pushing with A3, much less T6 or 75. It might be right but it sure sounds like total garbage spew.
  4. saukendar saukendar is offline

    United States

    Posts: 1,235
    Joined: Mar 07

    Jan 11th, 2008 (1/11/2008 4:47pm) in reply to threebanger

    I know it seem like total maniac play but the math is well defined and fairly clear. If you look at the push requirements for the SB, he’s open pushing all but 32o and 72o. when the stacks are skewed a bit more a couple of spots will have "Any two" to push an unopened pot.

    [edit]
    Chip leader pre isn't a big deal here as the total EQ spread is less than 5/100th top to bottom.
  5. saukendar saukendar is offline

    United States

    Posts: 1,235
    Joined: Mar 07

    Jan 11th, 2008 (1/11/2008 5:33pm) in reply to threebanger

    BTW here is the set for the next hand.

    Level: 200.0/400.0/25.0
    Structure: 0.5/0.3/0.2
    Players: 4
    Runtime: 148ms [300 Iterations]

    <TABLE class=simple cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=3 border=1><TBODY><TR><TH>Player</TH><TH>Stack</TH><TH>Push%</TH><TH>EQPre</TH><TH>EQPost</TH><TH>EQDiff</TH></TR><TR><TD>CO</TD><TD>6030.0</TD><TD>100.0%</TD><TD>0.3539</TD><TD>0.36</TD><TD>0.00611</TD></TR><TR><TD>BU</TD><TD>935.0</TD><TD>27.3%</TD><TD>0.0972</TD><TD>0.1051</TD><TD>0.00793</TD></TR><TR><TD>SB</TD><TD>3425.0</TD><TD>100.0%</TD><TD>0.2768</TD><TD>0.2744</TD><TD>-0.00238</TD></TR><TR><TD>BB</TD><TD>3310.0</TD><TD><TD>0.2721</TD><TD>0.2605</TD><TD>-0.01166</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

    Explanation:
    • <LI>Stack: Players stack before posting blinds. <LI>Push%: Percentage of hands a player open-pushes. <LI>EQPre: ICM equity before blinds. <LI>EQPost: ICM equity after hand. <LI>EQDiff: ICM equity change during hand.</LI>

    <TABLE class=simple cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=3 border=1><TBODY><TR><TH width=40>PU</TH><TH width=40>CA</TH><TH width=40>OC</TH><TH>Range</TH></TR><TR><TD>CO</TD><TD><TD><TD>100.0%, Any two</TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>BU</TD><TD><TD>27.3%, 44+ A2s+ A5o+ K6s+ K9o+ Q8s+ QTo+ J9s+ JTo T9s </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD><TD>SB</TD><TD>18.7%, 55+ A3s+ A7o+ K9s+ KTo+ QTs+ </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>27.3%, 44+ A2s+ A3o+ K6s+ K9o+ Q9s+ QTo+ JTs </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>SB</TD><TD><TD>2.7%, 99+ </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>0.5%, AA </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD><TD>3.2%, 88+ </TD></TR><TR><TD>BU</TD><TD><TD><TD>27.3%, 22+ A2s+ A7o+ A5o K7s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s 87s </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>SB</TD><TD><TD>49.6%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K3o+ Q2s+ Q8o+ J4s+ J9o+ T6s+ T9o 96s+ 98o 85s+ 75s+ 64s+ 54s </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>6.3%, 77+ AJs+ AQo+ </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD><TD>100.0%, Any two</TD></TR><TR><TD>SB</TD><TD><TD><TD>100.0%, Any two</TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD><TD>4.5%, 77+ AJs+ </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

    Explanation:
    • <LI>PU: Pushing Player. Applies when no other player entered the pot yet. <LI>CA: Calling Player. Player pushes after another player (PU) is already in the pot. <LI>OC: OverCalling Player. Player pushes after two other players (PU, CA) are already in the pot.</LI>
  6. SteveSteelz SteveSteelz is offline

    Jersey City, NJ
    United States

    Posts: 325
    Joined: Jan 08

    Jan 11th, 2008 (1/11/2008 8:11pm) in reply to Jack_Diamondz

    The reason it seems like a garbage spew is because you are just looking at your cards. What is the situation here? If you pick up 5 pots uncontested you will have 3000 more chips!!! You can then take a beat and sustain it or take someone out. You are trying to play for first here. First, you can't raise and fold when you are around 10BB. Its all or nothing. I copied a previous response of mine to a SNG post. I think it explains why you push so hard here and play for first:

    Lets say you cash 3/5 sngs. Nice result
    They are all 3rds.
    If we are playing $10 sngs with a $1 fee the buy in is really $11 3xs for $33
    We get paid $18 3xs. Each cash has a profit of $7. We earn $21.
    Our other two are lost buyins. 2x$11 = $22
    We arent showing a proift!

    First pays $45 for a profit of $34
    If we make one first we can lose the next 3sngs and still show a profit (34-33) = $1
    Not ideal but better than above. 1/4 is easier than 3/5.

    It isnt a cash game or a grind. It's short stack poker. Push em
  7. saukendar saukendar is offline

    United States

    Posts: 1,235
    Joined: Mar 07

    Jan 11th, 2008 (1/11/2008 8:22pm) in reply to SteveSteelz

    I agree, it has always seemed wildly AG++ to me but once you look into the math it works long term. here is a more human readable overview of why its like that.: http://www.chillin411.com/node/7

    [edit]
    I saw that one too, good job.
  8. Jennifear Jennifear is offline

    Niagara Falls, NY
    United States

    Posts: 10,222
    Joined: Nov 05

    Jan 12th, 2008 (1/12/2008 12:09am) in reply to saukendar

    Saukender's analysis is fantastic, and I only have this to add:

    His chart suggesting that you should shove 40.9%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K8o+ Q5s+ Q9o+ J7s+ J9o+ T6s+ T9o 96s+ 86s+ 75s+ 65s 54s is making the assumption that the other players will call with:

    <TABLE class=simple cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=3 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD>BU</TD><TD><TD>2.6%, TT+ AKs </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
    <TABLE class=simple cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=3 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD>SB</TD><TD><TD>3.8%, TT+ AQs+ AKo </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
    <TABLE class=simple cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=3 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD>BB</TD><TD><TD>8.3%, 88+ A9s+ ATo+ </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
    So let's look at the bottom of the proposed shoving range, and the hand K8o, specifically. Part of the reason it's a shove is it's hand value, and part of the reason you shove it is that you are called merely 14.7% of the time. I would assume that the TRUE ranges of the players you are shoving into are looser than this, and you will be called more like 25-30% of the time, so K8o is now a fold.

    I would shove more like 32-35% here, and that very much includes KJo. Good shove.
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