Full Tilt Poker Game #xxxxxxxx: $33 + $3 Sit & Go (Turbo) , Table 1 - 150/300 - No Limit Hold'em - 14:02:58 ET - 2008/08/27
Seat 3: XXXXXXXXX (5,040)
Seat 5: XXXXXXXXXXX (240)
Seat 6: XXXXXXXXX (4,730)
Seat 8: andressoprano (3,490)
andressoprano posts the small blind of 150
XXXXXXXXX posts the big blind of 300
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to andressoprano [Qc Qs)
XXXXXXXXX folds
XXXXXXXXXraises to 4,730, and is all in
andressoprano...........

I'd like to hear different opinions about what to do in this spot. Villain does not have a huge sample, so his sharkscope is meaningless here. But after playing a few sng's with him I can tell he knows what he's doing. I also assume he knows that I know what I'm doing.

With this in mind, there's two things pretty clear :

A : He knows he can shove super light, since the shortie has already folded, with less than 1 BB left.

B: I KNOW I'm ahead of his range, so this is not a question about what his holding can be. It is about taking the risk, or pass the possible double up in order to lock the cash.

What I'm looking for are opinions and/or thoughts about what you guys would do , and why. Also consider this factor before posting : We are playing 6 tables, so there is no way we can check this hand in the ICM calculator before making a decission. This is either an insta fold or call, but we have to have the answer in our minds before clicking the button.

Sooooooooooo, what would you do.............

PS: I erased the tournament #, and villain's names, so nobody can track it down and find out what happened.

Edit : Here are the results

Full Tilt Poker Game #7823255092: $33 + $3 Sit & Go (Turbo) (59484309), Table 1 - 150/300 - No Limit Hold'em - 14:02:58 ET - 2008/08/27
Seat 3: bigsidius (5,040)
Seat 5: happygabita (240)
Seat 6: lolligoll (4,730)
Seat 8: andressoprano (3,490)
andressoprano posts the small blind of 150
bigsidius posts the big blind of 300
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to andressoprano [Qc Qs]
happygabita folds
lolligoll has 15 seconds left to act
lolligoll raises to 4,730, and is all in
andressoprano calls 3,340, and is all in
bigsidius folds
lolligoll shows [Ac Ts]
andressoprano shows [Qc Qs]
Uncalled bet of 1,240 returned to lolligoll
*** FLOP *** [Ks 8c 6c]
*** TURN *** [Ks 8c 6c] [2c]
*** RIVER *** [Ks 8c 6c 2c] [Ah]
lolligoll shows a pair of Aces
andressoprano shows a pair of Queens
lolligoll wins the pot (7,280) with a pair of Aces
andressoprano stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 7,280 | Rake 0
Board: [Ks 8c 6c 2c Ah]
Seat 3: bigsidius (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: happygabita didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: lolligoll (button) showed [Ac Ts] and won (7,280) with a pair of Aces
Seat 8: andressoprano (small blind) showed [Qc Qs] and lost with a pair of Queens

I snap called. The shortie took a few seconds before folding, and during that time I decided what I was gonna do in case "lolligoll" shoved. I would've folded JJ/ AKs with no hesitation.

I agree on QQ been the button of my range.

The outcome of the hand is irrelevant. I think calling was the right play. Winning the hand would've put me in great position to win the tournament, which would happen more than the 53% the math says. Like Jen said, the maths don't account for the good or bad use you do to your chips.

Thanks everybody for the inputs. It was a very interesting discussion.

EDIT2 : Like many said, the fact that villain was a decent player makes this an easier call. AT was actually a stronger hand than what I was expecting. I'd shove close to anything here.

call.......

i make the fold and lock the cash

I'm sure Jennifear & TheMayor will explain why, but from just glancing at it...... it looks like a definite fold.

fold

 

Originally Posted by dpottz

 

Originally Posted by andressoprano

 

Originally Posted by rock3656

pretty sure you can only call KK and AA.

Just for the record, ICM says I can call with QQ. But, the question is: How many of you guys actually call, and why; and how many fold.

the ICM says you can call if he's shoving ATC. if you even restrict his range to like 50%, it's a clear fold

ICM puts him in a 51% range.
<TABLE class=simple cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=3 border=1><TBODY><TR><TH width=40>PU</TH><TH width=40>CA</TH><TH width=40>OC</TH><TH>Range</TH></TR><TR><TD>CO</TD><TD><TD><TD>49.0%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K4o+ Q3s+ Q8o+ J5s+ J9o+ T6s+ T8o+ 96s+ 98o 85s+ 75s+ 64s+ 54s </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>BU</TD><TD><TD>12.1%, 55+ A7s+ A5s ATo+ KJs+ KQo </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD><TD>SB</TD><TD>3.5%, TT+ AKs AKo </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>3.5%, TT+ AKs AKo </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>SB</TD><TD><TD>28.5%, 22+ A2s+ A5o+ A3o K6s+ K9o+ Q9s+ QTo+ JTs JTo T9s </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>10.9%, 55+ A8s+ A9o+ </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD><TD>100.0%, Any two</TD></TR><TR><TD>BU</TD><TD><TD><TD>51.1%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K3o+ Q3s+ Q8o+ J5s+ J9o+ T6s+ T8o+ 95s+ 98o 85s+ 87o 75s+ 64s+ 54s </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>SB</TD><TD><TD>1.4%, QQ+ </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>0.5%, AA </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD><TD>3.9%, 99+ AKs AKo </TD></TR><TR><TD>SB</TD><TD><TD><TD>26.4%, 22+ A2s+ A8o+ A5o K7s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s 87s </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD><TD>8.0%, 88+ ATs+ ATo+ </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

ICM says:

<TABLE class=simple cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=3 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD>BU</TD><TD><TD><TD>51.1%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K3o+ Q3s+ Q8o+ J5s+ J9o+ T6s+ T8o+ 95s+ 98o 85s+ 87o 75s+ 64s+ 54s </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>SB</TD><TD><TD>1.4%, QQ+</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
So you are right at that QQ to call.

If you make this call and win, with your skill you are pretty much a lock to win the SnG.

I'm sure a lot of people will say fold to get into the money cuz shorty will be knocked out once the BB hits him.

Let's take a closer look at the numbers though.

1st place.. 148.50
2nd place... 89.10
3rd place... 59.40
4th-9th.. nada

Now if we subtract the buy-in and rake.. payout is:
1st place... 112.50
2nd place... 53.10
3rd place... 23.40

As you can see, not a huge difference between 2nd place and 3rd place, but a huge difference between 1st and 2nd and 1st and 3rd.. numbers are:

Difference between 1st and 2nd... 59.40
Difference between 2nd and 3rd... 29.70 which isnt even a buy in
Difference between 1st and 3rd... 89.10

Now, if you make the call and lose, you are out $36.00 but if you call and win and go on to win the sng, you profit 112.50

So, what I am about to say might go against what Jennifear says as she is my coach, but if I am in this spot Andress, I stand a chance of making $112.50 if I call and go on to win the SnG, where as if I call and lose, I am out -$36.00...

SHIPPPPPP ITTTTTTTTTTTT IN!!!!!!!!

Im not folding ever.. You cant quote me ICM all you want. Still not folding QQ in this spot ever ever ever ever..

 

Originally Posted by dpottz

 

Originally Posted by mesaplayeraz

ICM says:

<TABLE class=simple cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=3 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD>BU</TD><TD>51.1%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K3o+ Q3s+ Q8o+ J5s+ J9o+ T6s+ T8o+ 95s+ 98o 85s+ 87o 75s+ 64s+ 54s </TD></TR><TR><TD>SB</TD><TD>1.4%, QQ+</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

So you are right at that QQ to call.

If you make this call and win, with your skill you are pretty much a lock to win the SnG.

I'm sure a lot of people will say fold to get into the money cuz shorty will be knocked out once the BB hits him.

Let's take a closer look at the numbers though.

1st place.. 148.50
2nd place... 89.10
3rd place... 59.40
4th-9th.. nada

Now if we subtract the buy-in and rake.. payout is:
1st place... 112.50
2nd place... 53.10
3rd place... 23.40

As you can see, not a huge difference between 2nd place and 3rd place, but a huge difference between 1st and 2nd and 1st and 3rd.. numbers are:

Difference between 1st and 2nd... 59.40
Difference between 2nd and 3rd... 29.70 which isnt even a buy in
Difference between 1st and 3rd... 89.10

Now, if you make the call and lose, you are out $36.00 but if you call and win and go on to win the SnG, you profit $148.50 (took the -$36.00 for 4th place) which is 4 buy in profit.

So, what I am about to say might go against what Jennifear says as she is my coach, but if I am in this spot Andress, I stand a chance of making $148.50 if I call and go on to win the SnG, where as if I call and lose, I am out -$36.00...

SHIPPPPPP ITTTTTTTTTTTT IN!!!!!!!!

you are right to call if your opponent is playing optimally and shoving 51.1% of hands and the BB is also playing optimally and folding anything but AA

Dpottz,

Look at the numbers I provided though. If Andress folds, he isnt guaranteed to get even 2nd place once it becomes 3 handed. However, if he calls and wins, he is a lock to get no worse than 2nd place and a minimum of $53.10, with a great chance to win $112.50.

So, with QQ, Im going to ship it cuz +$53.10 or +$112.50 (providing he wins the hand) is hella better than -$36.00!

i call this all day

lol and nighttime, its a turbo you've got 10 bb's, perfect time to chip up and TID imo

you call. You know he knows what hes doing. its getting close to the bubble. MAYBE he has AK but any other shoving hand u know ure 70% to win at least. I say call only because if you fold u will then be 4th in chips. Im assuming this is an 18 man sng so top 4 pay out. So ure ITM already. You figure you win this race and your chip leader and will probably at worst get 2nd place. So you are basically asking yourself "do i want a sure $30 profit or a 70% for a $200 or $150 profit?"

LOL i just realized it was a 9 man sng. I tried to delete but u replied to it. Im still saying call though. ha. Well if you are in this situation in an 18 man sng in the future, now you know what to do :)

I call, but QQ is definitely the bottom of my range.

Your lack of understanding of fundamentals is what is laughable.

ICM dictates a call if everybody is playing perfectly according to it, but that is generally not the case. In any case the bubble of a 9 handed sng is much different than nowhere near the money in an MTT. But apparently you don't understand that.
Laughable!