Check out our brand new Local Poker Communities! Get updates and interact with poker players in your area.
Visit the United States Poker Community | Visit the California Poker Community | Read more about the Launch of P5s Local

Bubble Play in 9-man SnG advice needed

Reply to Thread
  1. Rycky4Golf Rycky4Golf is offline

    Houston, TX
    United States

    Posts: 233
    Joined: Feb 07

    Jul 28th, 2007 (7/28/2007 12:40pm)

    <SPAN class=postbody>STAGE #836811121 TOURNEY ID 60545 HOLDEM SINGLE TOURNAMENT NO LIMIT - 2007-07-28 12:26:11 (ET)
    Table: 15257695 (Real Money) Seat #3 is the dealer
    Seat 2 - RYCKY4POKER ($4880 in chips)
    Seat 3 - THEPHENOM01 ($1860 in chips)
    Seat 5 - JSTREV2 ($1950 in chips)
    Seat 8 - AATOMICPUNKK ($4600 in chips)
    Seat 9 - OKNNC ($210 in chips)
    JSTREV2 - Posts small blind $200
    AATOMICPUNKK - Posts big blind $400
    *** POCKET CARDS ***
    Dealt to RYCKY4POKER [As Qs]
    OKNNC - All-In $210
    RYCKY4POKER - ???

    Just curious what the best play here would be. The UTG all-in is almost a non-factor due to his stack, however given my hand, the blinds, and the other big stack in the BB what would be best?

    A. Raise a standard $1200 or so, or
    B. Shove as my M is about 8 and in essence isolate the small all-in?

    Would appreciate any discussion on this, thanks!</SPAN>
  2. another_rack another_rack is offline

    San Francisco, CA
    United States

    Posts: 76
    Joined: Dec 05

    Jul 28th, 2007 (7/28/2007 1:06pm) in reply to Rycky4Golf

    I'd make it 1200. I'm willing to make the two mid-stacks think I'm isolating so they're more likely to tangle with me. Depending on the stakes the mid stacks will often overplay weaker hands than mine..

    The only real problem is if the Big Blind reraises. Then I'd usually dump it with no read.

    I think shoving is really big stack to act.
  3. The Sour Diesel The Sour Diesel is offline

    Santa Cruz, CA
    United States

    Posts: 523
    Joined: Oct 06

    Jul 28th, 2007 (7/28/2007 5:05pm) in reply to Rycky4Golf

    shove. 8 BBs is getting down to the wire and AQs is prolly the best hand ull get. but thats just me.
  4. Juanda 87 Juanda 87 is offline

    Calgary
    Canada

    Posts: 1,555
    Joined: Aug 06

    Jul 28th, 2007 (7/28/2007 7:32pm) in reply to The Sour Diesel

    Yeah, I would move all in also. If he has a pair, I am going to miss the flop far more than him, and there is very little play left so you can't outplay him enough times for it to be effective. And if he does have a pair but it is smaller, say 22-55 depending on his range, and how commited he feels, he may very well lay down a small pair that would have possibly beat you in a showdown.
  5. another_rack another_rack is offline

    San Francisco, CA
    United States

    Posts: 76
    Joined: Dec 05

    Jul 28th, 2007 (7/28/2007 7:59pm) in reply to Juanda 87

    I think shoving 5 handed here is silly. make a standard raise and if the Big Blind reraises you can laydown and still have good chips. 3x raise is the way to go. Sure, you're short, but so is everyone else.

    When I'm the Big Blind here I actually respect that raise just as much as a shove.

    Very few players can resteal from bb with worse than AQ when they have to turn their hand over (because of micro stacked all-in).
  6. 11p0wner 11p0wner is offline

    Kidlington
    United Kingdom

    Posts: 18
    Joined: Jul 07

    Jul 28th, 2007 (7/28/2007 9:01pm) in reply to Rycky4Golf

    shoving here is pretty spewy IMO. Mainly because it achieves nothing more than a standard raise of 2.5-3 X BB but with more risk when the 2nd biggest stack is in the BB.
    Also when raising a standard amount, room is left to dump the hand if the BB shoves back over the top.
  7. NetFan44 NetFan44 is offline

    New York City, NY
    United States

    Posts: 4,344
    Joined: Jun 06

    Jul 28th, 2007 (7/28/2007 9:29pm) in reply to Rycky4Golf

    this is a shove 100% of the time and it's not even close, only raise to 1200 if you intend on calling a bb shove.

    raising to 1200 and folding is atrociou, and it's just inviting the bb to shove on you, and you pretty much can't call if he does that.
  8. another_rack another_rack is offline

    San Francisco, CA
    United States

    Posts: 76
    Joined: Dec 05

    Jul 28th, 2007 (7/28/2007 11:06pm) in reply to NetFan44

    Inviting the BB to shove? I think the 1200 raise is more likely to get a fold than a shove. I'd rather fold here than shove, given the stacks/blinds/positions/pot size. I think its that bad of a play. risking 4600 to win 800 is, like 11p0wner said, spewie.

    As for folding to a reraise, you're still a comfortable second in chips and probably one off the money.
  9. The Sour Diesel The Sour Diesel is offline

    Santa Cruz, CA
    United States

    Posts: 523
    Joined: Oct 06

    Jul 29th, 2007 (7/29/2007 2:43am) in reply to another_rack

    Any standard raise is giving him great odds to reshove when you only have 5 BBs behind... almost 2:1. AQ takes down this pot quite often w/o a showdown and is in the top 70-80% of his reshoving range depending upon villain.
  10. another_rack another_rack is offline

    San Francisco, CA
    United States

    Posts: 76
    Joined: Dec 05

    Jul 29th, 2007 (7/29/2007 3:21am) in reply to The Sour Diesel

    Why is this guy gonna reshove with air if he knows you're calling? Is he pushing JT into the only guy that can bust him because he's getting a good price on a call (not a reraise I might add)? How can a specific had take down a pot w/o showdown in comparison with other holding with no showdown?

    Also this hand is going to be shown down since you already have an all-in.
  11. Rycky4Golf Rycky4Golf is offline

    Houston, TX
    United States

    Posts: 233
    Joined: Feb 07

    Jul 29th, 2007 (7/29/2007 2:57pm) in reply to another_rack

    Seems like there are two schools of thought on this one. What had happened was I decided to shove, and was insta-called by the BB since he had AA (so as it turns out he was gonna get it in anyway). When this happened I naturally had to second-guess my decision to shove in that situation with AQs.

    I'm starting to think that it may have been best to go 1200 and if the BB decided to go over the top I can still fold and work on the other two smaller stacks the rest of the way. I can see if I had about half the stack I had in this hand, I might as well just shove, here though I still would have 3/4 of my stack left to work with.

    Still, is this thinking way too passive at this point? I know so players are very aggressive on the bubble while others are more methodical. Then again, I might be destined to get busted on this one.
    Thread Starter
  12. amlove amlove is offline

    Seattle, WA
    United States

    Posts: 488
    Joined: Jun 05

    Jul 29th, 2007 (7/29/2007 4:24pm) in reply to Rycky4Golf

    SHOVE and its not even close. raising gives big stack a chance to shove over you in which case you might have to lay down AQ. if you shove he can only call with a very very small % of hands here unless he is a dumbass. shoving also will extend your chip lead and let you dominate 4 handed when you knock out the guy with 200ish chips.
  13. another_rack another_rack is offline

    San Francisco, CA
    United States

    Posts: 76
    Joined: Dec 05

    Jul 29th, 2007 (7/29/2007 6:43pm) in reply to amlove

    Shoving is a zero play. You're only getting called when you're beat and you're going after the one guy that can stack you. Raising to 1200 risks less chips to win the same pot. As for the guy with 200ish chips your not likely to be more than a 60/40 favorite against him since he's on any 2.

    Who are these wingnuts that reshove against the one guy that can send them to the rail when they're in the big blind? What stakes can I find them at?
  14. NetFan44 NetFan44 is offline

    New York City, NY
    United States

    Posts: 4,344
    Joined: Jun 06

    Jul 29th, 2007 (7/29/2007 9:01pm) in reply to another_rack

    since hero has the chip lead, it would be disadvantagous for 2nd place to call any sort of shove without QQ+ (QQ might even be borderline here). i'm too tired to do the EV calculations (PM pariah he's good with some of this stuff)

    raising to 1200 invites the bb to widen that range and reshove with more hands than QQ+ (let's say 88+, AQ+) and then there are tons of EV and ICM calculations to show that calling with AQ would be a mistake.

    now true, most of the time raising to 1200 won't get you a caller, some % of the time, you will get reshoved on, where as just open shoving, you completely narrow the calling range of the big blind.

    in regards to shoving being a 0 play, it's not, because yeah you're only getting called when you're beat but that % is too low that it makes shoving a +EV play. some hands that you beat are folding here (Ex. 22-TT).

    you are also winning chips if it folds around, so being a 60/40 favorite and being guaranteed to have more chips after the hand regardless of winning the hand is a spot i want to be in
  15. another_rack another_rack is offline

    San Francisco, CA
    United States

    Posts: 76
    Joined: Dec 05

    Jul 30th, 2007 (7/30/2007 4:18am) in reply to NetFan44

    Thanks for the opinions. I'm still not convinced but seems like its closer than I thought if anything.
  16. amlove amlove is offline

    Seattle, WA
    United States

    Posts: 488
    Joined: Jun 05

    Jul 30th, 2007 (7/30/2007 7:13am) in reply to another_rack

    netfan is on the money here. that is why shoving is the best play and its still not even close.
  17. pariah pariah is offline

    United States

    Posts: 1,730
    Joined: Apr 06

    Jul 30th, 2007 (7/30/2007 2:55pm) in reply to NetFan44

    Someone asked me to look at this thread but NetFan has summed it up nicely. The UTG all-in is a red herring, so the question is really "Should I shove AQs UTG on the bubble into the 2nd biggest stack?" And the answer - by a very wide margin - is YES.

    Though I doubt it'll ever happen, you can make a case for the BB folding KK here. He can only call QQ if you're shoving 30%+ of hands -- which you shouldn't be. The equilibrium point is probably something like you shoving 15% and him calling 1%.

    Note too that if called we're not dead per se: if he's smart and has a super-tight range we're still 27-29% to win -- can't discount the power of the suckout. ;)

    Sorry he woke up with AA though -- that's a form of luck that's rarely mentioned. AQs losing to AA isn't unlucky, but AQs running into AA here is extremely unlucky.
  18. Rycky4Golf Rycky4Golf is offline

    Houston, TX
    United States

    Posts: 233
    Joined: Feb 07

    Jul 30th, 2007 (7/30/2007 3:47pm) in reply to pariah

    Amazing, the power of the first impression works again. I feel much better about my decision to shove here, that AA just gave me enough doubt about that move to make me post the hand. Thanks to everyone on both sides of the argument for all your opinions!
    Thread Starter
  19. bcforrest bcforrest is offline

    Afghanistan

    Posts: 110
    Joined: Oct 06

    Jul 30th, 2007 (7/30/2007 4:49pm) in reply to Rycky4Golf

    Shove all day, AQ 5 handed is VERY solid, isolate and chip up... how often is AQ running into AA 5 handed... good move, ul
    If you raise to 1200 you might have the other stack shove on you with hands like 77 88 99 TT where he will more likely fold those hands to a shove by you (depending on how tight of a player he is) definitely +EV shoving
     
  20. timzc1 timzc1 is offline

    Vancouver
    Canada

    Posts: 2,262
    Joined: Jan 06

    Jul 30th, 2007 (7/30/2007 5:56pm) in reply to bcforrest

    my gut instinct was to shove here knowing that the BB would VERY rarely call, and some of those calls would be with pp where you still have 5 draws to the ace for a suck out (barring his set).

    the fact that the bb had AA here might make people think the shove is poor, but focussing on that fact is to far too result oriented. Standard raise invites him to shove with, potentially, a large range and then you have a tough decision (am I in a coin flip, so I need to call? does he have QQ+ and so i should fold? a yucky spot to be, i think).

    --tc
  21. The Sour Diesel The Sour Diesel is offline

    Santa Cruz, CA
    United States

    Posts: 523
    Joined: Oct 06

    Aug 1st, 2007 (8/1/2007 4:08pm) in reply to another_rack

    Just got internet on vacation and i see that i was initially right (weeeeee). however im no ICM master so the 70-80% ahead of a reshove from a 1200 bet (thats what i was referring to before) was a bit of an exaggeration/ miscalculation. my main point is that he reshove with a much wider range when u spew that much into the spot as pointed out by netfan and pariah.
Reply to Thread

Similar Threads