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Bubble Push/Fold

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  1. trouble trouble is offline

    Lansing, MI
    United States

    Posts: 1,667
    Joined: Aug 06

    Mar 7th, 2007 (3/7/2007 12:00pm)

    Just wanted to get some opinions on your thought processes on this type of hand. After losing a huge pot where I had a guy covered, I am left with 5,000 in chips at the 300/600/50 level, meaning I have an M of under 4. Overall, there are 154 players left, and 153 get paid, although it's only slightly more than the buyin of the tournament. There are many microstacks who are just folding to the cash, and it seems like most at my table are just waiting for the initial bubble to burst.

    I pick up AhJd in MP and after 4 folds the action is on me. 3 of the 4 stacks behind me are <2x my stack, so I'm assuming they will all fold at this point. The large stack with 22K is right behind me.

    Should I just be folding to the money here 100% of the time?
  2. murf99 murf99 is offline

    Bay Roberts
    Canada

    Posts: 1,948
    Joined: Jun 06

    Mar 7th, 2007 (3/7/2007 2:36pm) in reply to trouble

    I usually fold here from mid position. I would always push from late position or the sb if the pot is unopened.
  3. moman1965 moman1965 is offline

    Katy, TX
    United States

    Posts: 2,765
    Joined: Oct 06

    Mar 7th, 2007 (3/7/2007 2:45pm) in reply to trouble

    It all depends. Are there some that are about to blind out, then fold. If no one is close then you have to grab some chips.
  4. trouble trouble is offline

    Lansing, MI
    United States

    Posts: 1,667
    Joined: Aug 06

    Mar 7th, 2007 (3/7/2007 2:48pm) in reply to moman1965

    I'm certain if I fold I will make the money, perhaps not on that hand, but with ~18 tables there are many players in much worse shape than me.
    Thread Starter
  5. MysteriAce MysteriAce is offline

    Portland, OR
    United States

    Posts: 76
    Joined: Sep 06

    Mar 7th, 2007 (3/7/2007 3:01pm) in reply to trouble

    I think you should absolutely push here.

    There is 1350 in the pot (9 handed table, 300/600/50 ante), which would constitute a significant increase to your stack. If you win the blinds and antes 4 out of 5 times, you automatically make money on the push (win 1350x4 or or 5400 for every 5000 you risk).

    Now the hands you don't want to run into are AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AK/AQ. You will run into one of these hands only 13% of the time with 4 people behind you waiting to act. And you are not even dead against those hands. If anyone calls with weaker hands, your equity against the range of total hands just goes up. This means that you are in a clearly +chipEV situation.

    87% of the time you win 1350. 13% of the time you are gambling, mostly as an underdog. But I think it should be pretty clear that you clean up on the blinds and antes alone, so ANY equity you have in the pots where you are called is just gravy.

    To illustrate, if you run this 100 times, 87 times you win 1350 (+117,450), so even if the other 13 times you lose your 5000 (which you won't, since you will always have SOME equity in the 10K pot), you only lose back 65,000.
  6. mathclub mathclub is offline

    New Zealand

    Posts: 7,010
    Joined: Jan 07

    Mar 7th, 2007 (3/7/2007 4:18pm) in reply to trouble

    insta push here

    you'll never get a good ROI by trying to limp into money to make twice your buy in back. I would shove here with a lot worse hands than that.
    2
  7. trouble trouble is offline

    Lansing, MI
    United States

    Posts: 1,667
    Joined: Aug 06

    Mar 8th, 2007 (3/8/2007 6:11am) in reply to mathclub

    I did push (and lost to AQ, which is obviously why I posted this)...

    I would shove here with a lot worse hands than that.

    Me too!!!

    Thanks for replies...

    trouble
    Thread Starter
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