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Bubble squeeze play - was this +EV or massive spew?

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  1. jim5432 jim5432 is offline

    Croydon
    United Kingdom

    Posts: 36
    Joined: Oct 07

    May 20th, 2008 (5/20/2008 5:15am)

    OK - 33 left, 27 will cash. I'm comfortable with average stack. utg+2 raises 3x, mp flats and I see an opportunity to squeeze with AQs. I shove, raiser folds, mp tanks for ages and calls with 99. I lose.

    My thinking here is that I stand to increase my stack by a third without a fight, I have big fold equity close to the bubble and even if called I'm only a dog against AA-QQ, AK. No particular reads on other two players.

    Did I do the right thing? I still think I did, because medium pairs must fold there a lot of the time surely, but I hate going out like that when I lose a big pot I didn't need to be in. I'm trying to be more aggressive at this stage in tournaments recently but it seems just to be not working for me at the moment

    (to make matters worse and put my laptop's safety at serious risk of destruction, I bombed out of the FTP $40k the very next hand I played, losing a massive pot when AA got flushed on by AK! Were both top 10 close to bubble at the time)
    FullTiltPoker Game #6483428429: $12,000 Guarantee (Rebuy) (48586032), Table 19 - 600/1200 Ante 150 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:01:44 ET - 2008/05/19
    Seat 1: jim5432 (29,990)
    Seat 2: Jhys1010 (78,371)
    Seat 3: nakkis123 (57,220)
    Seat 4: MOD Poker (29,501)
    Seat 5: bentruman (22,393)
    Seat 6: The New Kid1 (37,250)
    Seat 7: NYwildcard (39,508)
    Seat 8: MotaWuppet (20,996)
    Seat 9: VBILLER (43,476)
    jim5432 antes 150
    Jhys1010 antes 150
    nakkis123 antes 150
    MOD Poker antes 150
    bentruman antes 150
    The New Kid1 antes 150
    NYwildcard antes 150
    MotaWuppet antes 150
    VBILLER antes 150
    VBILLER posts the small blind of 600
    jim5432 posts the big blind of 1,200
    The button is in seat #8
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to jim5432 [Ah Qh]
    Jhys1010 folds
    nakkis123 folds
    MOD Poker raises to 3,600
    bentruman folds
    The New Kid1 calls 3,600
    NYwildcard folds
    MotaWuppet folds
    VBILLER folds
    jim5432 raises to 29,840, and is all in
    MOD Poker folds
    The New Kid1 has 15 seconds left to act
    The New Kid1 has requested TIME
    The New Kid1 calls 26,240
    jim5432 shows [Ah Qh]
    The New Kid1 shows [9h 9d]
    *** FLOP *** [As 5c 9s]
    *** TURN *** [As 5c 9s] [Td]
    *** RIVER *** [As 5c 9s Td] [5s]
    jim5432 shows two pair, Aces and Fives
    The New Kid1 shows a full house, Nines full of Fives
    The New Kid1 wins the pot (65,230) with a full house, Nines full of Fives
    jim5432 stands up
     
  2. SICKTIGHT311 SICKTIGHT311 is offline

    Long Beach, CA
    United States

    Posts: 24,818
    Joined: Jul 06

    May 20th, 2008 (5/20/2008 5:51am) in reply to jim5432

    I think a raise to 12,500 looks stronger. The 9-9 probably pegged you for exactly what you had or A-K and decided it was most likely a +EV coinflip.
  3. sacaniga sacaniga is online now fake machinist

    Posts: 8,121
    Joined: Jul 07

    May 20th, 2008 (5/20/2008 5:53am) in reply to jim5432

    i def like the squeeze there, but your overbet looks suspect, bet like 14999, or something that obv commits you to the hand, but gives you the impression that you wouldnt mind action

    that overship on the bubble screams "i just read harrington on holdem and i'm very excited"
  4. jim5432 jim5432 is offline

    Croydon
    United Kingdom

    Posts: 36
    Joined: Oct 07

    May 20th, 2008 (5/20/2008 7:18am) in reply to sacaniga

     
    Originally Posted by sacaniga View Post

    rofl @

    "i just read harrington on holdem and i'm very excited"

    recently I'm seeing more and more of the raises you describe being outed for being marginal hands looking to rep super strength and a trend towards the "triple bluff" over betting to look strong now as a counter to that. the game seems to be getting more like "if he knows that I know that he knows that I know etc..." !

    but yes, take the point - I suppose I just thought that I don't really want to be called or shoved on and if I'm committed I might as well get them all in and make it look like its a massive call for his life on the bubble. I had to get it past two people as well so I'm thinking one or other might think it worth calling the smaller raise.

    I suppose you really can't tell whether one person or the next might see strength in the lower raise or weakness in the shove or vice versa - but on balance I guess both you guys are right. thanks for input
     
    Thread Starter
  5. Dyzalot Dyzalot is offline

    Candia, NH
    United States

    Posts: 14,473
    Joined: May 05

    May 20th, 2008 (5/20/2008 7:59am) in reply to jim5432

    I disagree with characterizing that as an "overbet". If I have AA there I'm shoving and if I have AQ as in your case I am shoving. Even if you knew that 99 was going to call it is still a +cEV move since you are racing with plenty of dead money in the pot. Your play was fine. I will never call a raise an "overbet" if any smaller raise commits your stack anyways. If you had 50K and shoved, that would be an overbet.
     3
  6. jim5432 jim5432 is offline

    Croydon
    United Kingdom

    Posts: 36
    Joined: Oct 07

    May 20th, 2008 (5/20/2008 9:16am) in reply to Dyzalot

    Thx dyzalot - think we've been at same table a few times - you got any notes on me lol? Think I may have telegraphed what I do with AQ late now anyway!

    I'll throw another question in the pot now - was the call with 99 bad on his part? I don't like it but not sure. I'm probably only calling QQ+ there (and I may have flatted original raise with that there in his position in the hope someone would do exactly what I did)
     
    Thread Starter
  7. EyeKnows EyeKnows is offline

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    May 20th, 2008 (5/20/2008 9:36am) in reply to jim5432

    I like the shove, ul you got called and lost the flip.

    Ty dyz for the confirmation, I didn't think this was an overbet at all w < 25 BBs.
  8. seberek seberek is offline

    Corfu
    Greece

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    May 20th, 2008 (5/20/2008 9:36am) in reply to jim5432

    If we have no more info about the other players, i fully agree with dyzalot regarding ur play.

    Calling with 9-9 seems pretty marginal to me but then again i usually prefer the option that gets my chips in the middle when i 'm not sure what to do.
     
  9. BigGunX BigGunX is offline Mr OT Party

    Williamsburg, VA
    United States

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    May 20th, 2008 (5/20/2008 10:43am) in reply to EyeKnows

    Agree with Dyzalot. I'm shoving there with AQ, AK, JJ-AA. Plenty of dead money...fold equity, etc.

    Good push, bad result.
     
  10. periferel periferel is offline

    Hollywood, CA
    United States

    Posts: 178
    Joined: Apr 08

    May 20th, 2008 (5/20/2008 11:22am) in reply to SICKTIGHT311

    several decent plays you could make i guess. hard to pick one as best i suppose especially after seeing the board hehe. im kind of against allin as a scary "make em lay- it- down" move. it looks amateurish and invites calls more i believe.
     
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