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On buying accounts and why you should care

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  1. sirio11 sirio11 is offline

    El Paso, TX
    United States

    Posts: 138
    Joined: Mar 05

    Aug 31st, 2007 (8/31/2007 11:42am)

    I posted this thread in the 2+2 forums, hopefully it generates some good discussion here:

    __________________________

    I made a post on the High Stakes forum about this topic but didn't have any luck (no replies, too theoretical?, non-important topic?). So I decided to post it on the Poker Theory forum and have better luck, I got one reply by Dr. Zebra.

    My question was:

    Lets suppose you have an average stack on the Sunday Million with 18 people left, and you're a winner player, lets say 50% ROI.
    A break even player (0% ROI) is the chip leader, with about 1/4 of the chips in play.

    Now a good player, lets say one with a 100% ROI buys the account of the mediocre break even player and starts playing the last 2 tables.

    Using numbers from the last Sunday million

    1st $185,760
    2nd $96,755
    3rd $69,628
    9th $8,009
    10-18th $5,942

    How this transaction affects your equity? How much money do you lose because of the transaction?

    Here is his answer :

    ok. let's start off with a few unrealistic assumptions:

    1. let's simplify some of the numbers: payouts are
    200k, 100k, 70k, 50k, 40k, 30k, 20k, 12k, 8k, and 9 spots at 6k each.
    2. the 18 players have equal chips
    3. 17 people average 50% ROI and one person averaged 0% ROI and now is someone who averages 100% ROI
    4. There are exactly 2000 entrants for 500+30 and 200 pay

    the results should be nearly obvious because of the oversimplification, but i think the scratch work below is correct in case you want to loosen the assumptions (ie make the field more diverse...)

    this is the pre-deal equity for a random 50% ROI player with these assumptions:

    584k*[(1.5)(530)-E(416k/182))/(584k/18+530)]/
    [17*((1.5)(530)-E(416k/182))/(584k/18+530))+(1)(530)-F(416k/182))/(584k/18+530)]

    where E and F are the expressions = (1+ROI)(Buyin)/(TotalPrizePool/entrants + Buyin)

    your new equity is:

    584k*[(1.5)(530)-E(416k/182))/(584k/18+530)]/
    [17*((1.5)(530)-E(416k/182))/(584k/18+530))+(2)(530)-F(416k/182))/(584k/18+530)]

    which simplifies to:
    pre-deal: 33,056.70
    postdeal: 31,854.30

    Hopefully this generates some good discussion between the community

    David
    ___________________
  2. TheDude12424 TheDude12424 is offline

    Gibbsboro, NJ
    United States

    Posts: 1,274
    Joined: Apr 07

    Aug 31st, 2007 (8/31/2007 11:46am) in reply to sirio11

    whaaaa???
  3. Paul Ordeeb Paul Ordeeb is offline

    Cincinnati, OH
    United States

    Posts: 907
    Joined: Dec 05

    Aug 31st, 2007 (8/31/2007 11:59am) in reply to sirio11

    I think Your equity gap would be even Larger now that you have someone that will not chop, (I would think HU would be your only chopping point with a sold account).
  4. SmellyFingas SmellyFingas is offline

    Queensbury, NY
    United States

    Posts: 365
    Joined: May 06

    Aug 31st, 2007 (8/31/2007 12:13pm) in reply to sirio11

    i wonder what the worst account purchase was...
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