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Posts: 2,340
Joined: Nov 05Sep 24th, 2007 (9/24/2007 8:01pm)
i built a pretty simple excel model that calculates how you are running on all-in showdowns before the river in a series of hands in a tournament or over a longer period of time. it basically just compares expected results vs. actual results.
here's a screen shot from a 4 person HU tournament...if anyone wants it, pm me & i'll be happy to send it to you.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=535 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP> <COL width=43> <COL span=2 width=44> <COL width=38> <COL span=2 width=34> <COL width=48> <COL width=42> <COL width=74> <COL width=79> <COL width=55> <TBODY><TR height=31><TD class=xl40 width=43 height=31>Hand #
</TD><TD class=xl41 width=44>% to Win
</TD><TD class=xl41 width=44>% to Lose
</TD><TD class=xl41 width=38>% to Tie
</TD><TD class=xl41 width=34>Big Blind
</TD><TD class=xl41 width=34>Pot Size
</TD><TD class=xl41 width=48># Players
</TD><TD class=xl41 width=42>Result
</TD><TD class=xl42 width=74>Expected Result (BBs)
</TD><TD class=xl42 width=79>Actual Result (BBs)
</TD><TD class=xl43 width=55>Variance (BBs)
</TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl24 height=17 x:num>1
</TD><TD class=xl25 x:num="0.65100000000000002">65.10%
</TD><TD class=xl25 x:num="0.33650000000000002">33.65%
</TD><TD class=xl25 x:num="1.24E-2">1.24%
</TD><TD class=xl26 x:num>30
</TD><TD class=xl26 x:num>630
</TD><TD class=xl26 x:num>2
</TD><TD class=xl27>Win
</TD><TD class=xl28 x:num="13.8012" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR((B2*F2/E2)+(C2*0)+(D2*(F2/E2)/G2)),"",(B2*F2/E2)+(C2*0)+(D2*(F2/E2)/G2))'>13.80
</TD><TD class=xl28 x:num x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(IF(H2="Win",F2/E2,IF(H2="Loss",0,(F2/E2)/G2))),"",IF(H2="Win",F2/E2,IF(H2="Loss",0,(F2/E2)/G2)))'>21.00
</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="7.1988000000000003" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(J2-I2),"",J2-I2)'>7.20
</TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl24 height=17 x:num>2
</TD><TD class=xl25 x:num="0.62360000000000004">62.36%
</TD><TD class=xl25 x:num="0.37169999999999997">37.17%
</TD><TD class=xl25 x:num="4.7000000000000002E-3">0.47%
</TD><TD class=xl26 x:num>40
</TD><TD class=xl26 x:num="2960">2,960
</TD><TD class=xl26 x:num>2
</TD><TD class=xl27>Win
</TD><TD class=xl28 x:num="46.32030000000001" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR((B3*F3/E3)+(C3*0)+(D3*(F3/E3)/G3)),"",(B3*F3/E3)+(C3*0)+(D3*(F3/E3)/G3))'>46.32
</TD><TD class=xl28 x:num x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(IF(H3="Win",F3/E3,IF(H3="Loss",0,(F3/E3)/G3))),"",IF(H3="Win",F3/E3,IF(H3="Loss",0,(F3/E3)/G3)))'>74.00
</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="27.67969999999999" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(J3-I3),"",J3-I3)'>27.68
</TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl24 height=17 x:num>3
</TD><TD class=xl25 x:num="0.60740000000000005">60.74%
</TD><TD class=xl25 x:num="0.38869999999999999">38.87%
</TD><TD class=xl25 x:num="3.8999999999999998E-3">0.39%
</TD><TD class=xl26 x:num>100
</TD><TD class=xl26 x:num="1928">1,928
</TD><TD class=xl26 x:num>2
</TD><TD class=xl27>Loss
</TD><TD class=xl28 x:num="11.748268000000003" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR((B4*F4/E4)+(C4*0)+(D4*(F4/E4)/G4)),"",(B4*F4/E4)+(C4*0)+(D4*(F4/E4)/G4))'>11.75
</TD><TD class=xl28 x:num x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(IF(H4="Win",F4/E4,IF(H4="Loss",0,(F4/E4)/G4))),"",IF(H4="Win",F4/E4,IF(H4="Loss",0,(F4/E4)/G4)))'>0.00
</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="-11.748268000000003" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(J4-I4),"",J4-I4)'>-11.75
</TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl24 height=17 x:num>4
</TD><TD class=xl25 x:num="0.67730000000000001">67.73%
</TD><TD class=xl25 x:num="0.31819999999999998">31.82%
</TD><TD class=xl25 x:num="4.4999999999999997E-3">0.45%
</TD><TD class=xl26 x:num>100
</TD><TD class=xl26 x:num="3256">3,256
</TD><TD class=xl26 x:num>2
</TD><TD class=xl27>Loss
</TD><TD class=xl28 x:num="22.126148000000004" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR((B5*F5/E5)+(C5*0)+(D5*(F5/E5)/G5)),"",(B5*F5/E5)+(C5*0)+(D5*(F5/E5)/G5))'>22.13
</TD><TD class=xl28 x:num x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(IF(H5="Win",F5/E5,IF(H5="Loss",0,(F5/E5)/G5))),"",IF(H5="Win",F5/E5,IF(H5="Loss",0,(F5/E5)/G5)))'>0.00
</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="-22.126148000000004" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(J5-I5),"",J5-I5)'>-22.13
</TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl24 height=17 x:num>5
</TD><TD class=xl25 x:num="0.72140000000000004">72.14%
</TD><TD class=xl25 x:num="0.24079999999999999">24.08%
</TD><TD class=xl25 x:num="3.78E-2">3.78%
</TD><TD class=xl26 x:num>200
</TD><TD class=xl26 x:num="4212">4,212
</TD><TD class=xl26 x:num>2
</TD><TD class=xl27>Win
</TD><TD class=xl28 x:num="15.590718000000003" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR((B6*F6/E6)+(C6*0)+(D6*(F6/E6)/G6)),"",(B6*F6/E6)+(C6*0)+(D6*(F6/E6)/G6))'>15.59
</TD><TD class=xl28 x:num x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(IF(H6="Win",F6/E6,IF(H6="Loss",0,(F6/E6)/G6))),"",IF(H6="Win",F6/E6,IF(H6="Loss",0,(F6/E6)/G6)))'>21.06
</TD><TD class=xl29 x:num="5.4692819999999962" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(J6-I6),"",J6-I6)'>5.47
</TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl24 height=17 x:num>6
</TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl27></TD><TD class=xl28 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR((B7*F7/E7)+(C7*0)+(D7*(F7/E7)/G7)),"",(B7*F7/E7)+(C7*0)+(D7*(F7/E7)/G7))'></TD><TD class=xl28 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(IF(H7="Win",F7/E7,IF(H7="Loss",0,(F7/E7)/G7))),"",IF(H7="Win",F7/E7,IF(H7="Loss",0,(F7/E7)/G7)))'></TD><TD class=xl29 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(J7-I7),"",J7-I7)'></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl24 height=17 x:num>7
</TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl27></TD><TD class=xl28 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR((B8*F8/E8)+(C8*0)+(D8*(F8/E8)/G8)),"",(B8*F8/E8)+(C8*0)+(D8*(F8/E8)/G8))'></TD><TD class=xl28 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(IF(H8="Win",F8/E8,IF(H8="Loss",0,(F8/E8)/G8))),"",IF(H8="Win",F8/E8,IF(H8="Loss",0,(F8/E8)/G8)))'></TD><TD class=xl29 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(J8-I8),"",J8-I8)'></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl24 height=17 x:num>8
</TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl27></TD><TD class=xl28 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR((B9*F9/E9)+(C9*0)+(D9*(F9/E9)/G9)),"",(B9*F9/E9)+(C9*0)+(D9*(F9/E9)/G9))'></TD><TD class=xl28 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(IF(H9="Win",F9/E9,IF(H9="Loss",0,(F9/E9)/G9))),"",IF(H9="Win",F9/E9,IF(H9="Loss",0,(F9/E9)/G9)))'></TD><TD class=xl29 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(J9-I9),"",J9-I9)'></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl24 height=17 x:num>9
</TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl27></TD><TD class=xl28 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR((B10*F10/E10)+(C10*0)+(D10*(F10/E10)/G10)),"",(B10*F10/E10)+(C10*0)+(D10*(F10/E10)/G10))'></TD><TD class=xl28 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(IF(H10="Win",F10/E10,IF(H10="Loss",0,(F10/E10)/G10))),"",IF(H10="Win",F10/E10,IF(H10="Loss",0,(F10/E10)/G10)))'></TD><TD class=xl29 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(J10-I10),"",J10-I10)'></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl24 height=17 x:num>10
</TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl27></TD><TD class=xl28 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR((B11*F11/E11)+(C11*0)+(D11*(F11/E11)/G11)),"",(B11*F11/E11)+(C11*0)+(D11*(F11/E11)/G11))'></TD><TD class=xl28 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(IF(H11="Win",F11/E11,IF(H11="Loss",0,(F11/E11)/G11))),"",IF(H11="Win",F11/E11,IF(H11="Loss",0,(F11/E11)/G11)))'></TD><TD class=xl29 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(J11-I11),"",J11-I11)'></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl24 height=17 x:num>11
</TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl27></TD><TD class=xl28 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR((B12*F12/E12)+(C12*0)+(D12*(F12/E12)/G12)),"",(B12*F12/E12)+(C12*0)+(D12*(F12/E12)/G12))'></TD><TD class=xl28 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(IF(H12="Win",F12/E12,IF(H12="Loss",0,(F12/E12)/G12))),"",IF(H12="Win",F12/E12,IF(H12="Loss",0,(F12/E12)/G12)))'></TD><TD class=xl29 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(J12-I12),"",J12-I12)'></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl24 height=17 x:num>12
</TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl27></TD><TD class=xl28 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR((B13*F13/E13)+(C13*0)+(D13*(F13/E13)/G13)),"",(B13*F13/E13)+(C13*0)+(D13*(F13/E13)/G13))'></TD><TD class=xl28 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(IF(H13="Win",F13/E13,IF(H13="Loss",0,(F13/E13)/G13))),"",IF(H13="Win",F13/E13,IF(H13="Loss",0,(F13/E13)/G13)))'></TD><TD class=xl29 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(J13-I13),"",J13-I13)'></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl24 height=17 x:num>13
</TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl27></TD><TD class=xl28 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR((B14*F14/E14)+(C14*0)+(D14*(F14/E14)/G14)),"",(B14*F14/E14)+(C14*0)+(D14*(F14/E14)/G14))'></TD><TD class=xl28 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(IF(H14="Win",F14/E14,IF(H14="Loss",0,(F14/E14)/G14))),"",IF(H14="Win",F14/E14,IF(H14="Loss",0,(F14/E14)/G14)))'></TD><TD class=xl29 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(J14-I14),"",J14-I14)'></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl24 height=17 x:num>14
</TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl25></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl26></TD><TD class=xl27></TD><TD class=xl28 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR((B15*F15/E15)+(C15*0)+(D15*(F15/E15)/G15)),"",(B15*F15/E15)+(C15*0)+(D15*(F15/E15)/G15))'></TD><TD class=xl28 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(IF(H15="Win",F15/E15,IF(H15="Loss",0,(F15/E15)/G15))),"",IF(H15="Win",F15/E15,IF(H15="Loss",0,(F15/E15)/G15)))'></TD><TD class=xl29 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(J15-I15),"",J15-I15)'></TD></TR><TR height=18><TD class=xl30 height=18 x:num>15
</TD><TD class=xl31></TD><TD class=xl31></TD><TD class=xl31></TD><TD class=xl32></TD><TD class=xl32></TD><TD class=xl32></TD><TD class=xl33></TD><TD class=xl34 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR((B16*F16/E16)+(C16*0)+(D16*(F16/E16)/G16)),"",(B16*F16/E16)+(C16*0)+(D16*(F16/E16)/G16))'></TD><TD class=xl34 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(IF(H16="Win",F16/E16,IF(H16="Loss",0,(F16/E16)/G16))),"",IF(H16="Win",F16/E16,IF(H16="Loss",0,(F16/E16)/G16)))'></TD><TD class=xl35 x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(ISERROR(J16-I16),"",J16-I16)'></TD></TR><TR height=36><TD class=xl36 colSpan=10 height=36>Total Session Variance (BBs)
</TD><TD class=xl39 x:num="6.4733659999999773" x:fmla="=SUM(K2:K16)">6.47
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
i built it to teach someone who was complaining about bad beats so they could load in all their hands and see how they were truly doing. their result was a variance of pretty close to 0 meaning they weren't running as bad as they thought. if your variance is a positive #, you are running "better" than expected, and the reverse is true if your variance is negative.
you can get the win/loss/tie odds from this site... http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_odds/texas_holdem#
(maybe i should post this in bad beat forum)
phx -
Posts: 502
Joined: Mar 07Sep 24th, 2007 (9/24/2007 8:25pm) in reply to PHX_Rises
Awesome post. This could be cool.
Thanks for your work!
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