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call all in with AKs here??

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  1. lemongello lemongello is offline

    Atlanta, GA
    United States

    Posts: 69
    Joined: Apr 07

    Dec 30th, 2010 (12/30/2010 3:39am)

    Full Tilt Poker Game #26761287155: $35,000 Guarantee (207539991), Table 68 - 400/800 Ante 100 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:03:17 ET - 2010/12/27
    Seat 1: camaropower (8,624)
    Seat 2: hoyazo (31,314)
    Seat 3: jajman86 (1,720)
    Seat 4: DrPoita (18,869)
    Seat 5: bedias (16,680)
    Seat 6: Goldeneye7 (17,940)
    Seat 7: jk2424 (21,563)
    Seat 8: TheNutDraw (17,266)
    Seat 9: TimesATicking (51,645)
    camaropower antes 100
    hoyazo antes 100
    jajman86 antes 100
    DrPoita antes 100
    bedias antes 100
    Goldeneye7 antes 100
    jk2424 antes 100
    TheNutDraw antes 100
    TimesATicking antes 100
    jajman86 posts the small blind of 400
    DrPoita posts the big blind of 800
    The button is in seat #2
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to TheNutDraw [Kc Ac]
    bedias folds
    Goldeneye7 folds
    jk2424 folds
    TheNutDraw raises to 2,400
    TimesATicking has 15 seconds left to act
    TimesATicking folds
    camaropower raises to 8,524, and is all in
    hoyazo calls 8,524
    jajman86 folds
    DrPoita folds
    TheNutDraw raises to 17,166, and is all in
    hoyazo calls 8,642
    TheNutDraw shows [Kc Ac]
    camaropower shows [9s Js]
    hoyazo shows [Qd Qs]
    *** FLOP *** [4s 7h 7d]
    *** TURN *** [4s 7h 7d] [Ts]
    *** RIVER *** [4s 7h 7d Ts] [3h]
    TheNutDraw shows a pair of Sevens
    hoyazo shows two pair, Queens and Sevens
    hoyazo wins the side pot (17,284) with two pair, Queens and Sevens
    camaropower shows a pair of Sevens
    hoyazo wins the main pot (27,672) with two pair, Queens and Sevens
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 44,956 Main pot 27,672. Side pot 17,284. | Rake 0
    Board: [4s 7h 7d Ts 3h]
    Seat 1: camaropower showed [9s Js] and lost with a pair of Sevens
    Seat 2: hoyazo (button) showed [Qd Qs] and won (44,956) with two pair, Queens and Sevens
    Seat 3: jajman86 (small blind) folded before the Flop
    Seat 4: DrPoita (big blind) folded before the Flop
    Seat 5: bedias folded before the Flop
    Seat 6: Goldeneye7 folded before the Flop
    Seat 7: jk2424 folded before the Flop
    Seat 8: TheNutDraw showed [Kc Ac] and lost with a pair of Sevens
    Seat 9: TimesATicking folded before the Flop

    Thinking on this hand....
    Obvious raise here.. when the short stack shoves im never gonna fold... when the next guy flat calls the options are:
    1) fold - NEVER
    2) call - can call here for 45% of my stack which commits me to the hand anyways so my fav. option is...
    3) raise - go ahead and shove... the first all in can be making this move with a lot of hands here so i give him the following range: 55+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,A9o+,KJo+,QJo ... the second guy i feel can flat with 77+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo..

    against both of these ranges AKs has about 40% equity and is the favorite.. i doubt the flatter is folding much if any of these hands to the fold so i dont add in odds of him folding and me going head up vs the shover where i feel i am ahead most of the time..

    My questions are..
    1) Does anyone just call pre here and then fold when you miss the flop and get aggression from the flatter?? I feel this is just too weak a play but I dunno..
    2) Is my thinking correct here in the analysis?
    3) Any advice im not thinking of here??

    Thanks and GL
  2. grapsfan grapsfan is offline Head Curmudgeon

    Rosemount, MN
    United States

    Posts: 7,980
    Joined: Jun 05

    Dec 30th, 2010 (12/30/2010 3:51am) in reply to lemongello

    If anything, you're overthinking it. Here's the correct thought process.

    1) I have 20 BB, so I need to win a big pot to get back into this thing.
    2) I have one of the best hands in Hold'em.
    3) Whoo hooo!

    Seriously, unless someone wakes up with AA, you're getting the right price. Get it in all day. I'm glad to see you did an equity analysis against a couple of ranges, but with 20 BB, you're too short to worry about exact pot equity.

    Do you post this if you win the flip?
    Edited By: grapsfan Dec 30th, 2010 at 03:52 AM
     
  3. lemongello lemongello is offline

    Atlanta, GA
    United States

    Posts: 69
    Joined: Apr 07

    Dec 30th, 2010 (12/30/2010 4:21am) in reply to grapsfan

    probably not.. huh
    Thread Starter
  4. pvigar pvigar is offline

    Curitiba
    Brazil

    Posts: 38
    Joined: Dec 10

    Dec 30th, 2010 (12/30/2010 5:57am) in reply to lemongello

    +1 to grapsfan. Said it all.

    Actually you simply answered your own question. If you're never folding this hand, you can only put it all in. That's the only thing you can do.
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