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Call or fold?

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  1. andersd andersd is offline

    Linköping
    Sweden

    Posts: 242
    Joined: Jul 07

    Apr 19th, 2010 (4/19/2010 1:46pm)

    This saturday I got to the FT on a tournament on Full Tilt when this hand came up.

    I read another thread here about someone that were 3 handed and had 1 person sitting out who basicly folded his way to second place.

    If I fold this hand I'm guaranteed a 3:rd place for sure. And if I call and win I have a second place locked up pretty much and a chance on first price.

    I should also say that hes raising pretty much every hand. But this is the first time he bets large enough to take any caller all in.

    What does ICM say about it?

    Payouts were

    1. 9878$

    2. 6396$

    3. 4746$

    4. 3584$

    Full Tilt Poker Game #20155219386: $42,000 Guarantee (154459812), Table 87 - 15000/30000 Ante 4000 - No Limit Hold'em - 20:36:40 ET - 2010/04/17
    Seat 3: pokerwille (646,596)
    Seat 4: WhySoCereus (4,428,948)
    Seat 5: andersd79 (851,194)
    Seat 6: RatzFatz82 (127,262)
    pokerwille antes 4,000
    WhySoCereus antes 4,000
    andersd79 antes 4,000
    RatzFatz82 antes 4,000
    andersd79 posts the small blind of 15,000
    RatzFatz82 posts the big blind of 30,000
    The button is in seat #4
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to andersd79 [Qc As]
    pokerwille folds
    WhySoCereus has 15 seconds left to act
    WhySoCereus raises to 1,030,000
    andersd79 ????????????????
  2. JoeDeertay JoeDeertay is offline

    Posts: 213
    Joined: Jun 07

    Apr 19th, 2010 (4/19/2010 2:21pm) in reply to andersd

    WhySoCereus is pretty good iirc so he probably knows that he can be raising pretty much ATC here every hand with the stacks as they are. He also knows that you bigger stacks should be folding here often without the "nuts" because the BB should be calling extremely wide here. I'm not an ICM expert or anything, but I think this may be a close fold, and only close because your hand is so strong against his value range against the BB, yet calling blocks the BB from getting his stack in. I'd definitely like to see more thoughts on this.
     
  3. andersd andersd is offline

    Linköping
    Sweden

    Posts: 242
    Joined: Jul 07

    Apr 19th, 2010 (4/19/2010 5:53pm) in reply to JoeDeertay

    Hate doing this. Bump!
    Thread Starter
  4. TheSuperJoba TheSuperJoba is offline

    Dayton, OH
    United States

    Posts: 155
    Joined: Aug 09

    Apr 19th, 2010 (4/19/2010 6:07pm) in reply to andersd

    winning a flip here gives you a great chance at second, and gives you a better chance of winning the tournament. that's 3 to 6k more dollars. folding will almost ensure you $1200. So are you good enough against his range to make the call + EV? I'd say probably. his stacks is huge and he knows he can get hands like AQ to fold. that's why it's a good play. The question is are you willing to gamble for the 9k or take the sure $1200
  5. ZenEnso ZenEnso is offline

    AL
    United States

    Posts: 552
    Joined: Mar 10

    Apr 19th, 2010 (4/19/2010 6:26pm) in reply to andersd

    I think it is definitely +EV to call here if you say that he is opening really light. I would imagine he is making this move with hands like A10, KQ, or low PP.

    I don't necessarily have the "credentials" to tell you what you should do cause i've never had a score that large so i can't say with confidence I would make the call but I don't think it would be a bad call at all. I would more than likely NIT my way to more money LOL.
  6. varone3737 varone3737 is offline

    Cranston, RI
    United States

    Posts: 19
    Joined: Apr 10

    Apr 20th, 2010 (4/20/2010 10:52pm) in reply to ZenEnso

    agree w zen, but i think im more likely to gamble in a flip in this spot. like you said hes been opening a lot of preflop pots. if you win this hand, not only will you close to guarantee 2nd place money and possibly make hu play easier, you also slow him down from rolling over the rest of the table.w
  7. BarryGS BarryGS is offline

    Posts: 295
    Joined: Dec 05

    Apr 20th, 2010 (4/20/2010 11:16pm) in reply to varone3737

    Snap call IMO.
  8. Pooplips Pooplips is offline I collect boogers

    Fremont, OH
    United States

    Posts: 718
    Joined: Nov 07

    Apr 20th, 2010 (4/20/2010 11:47pm) in reply to BarryGS

    I personally would just play for the win here knowing he has such a wide range
  9. rivverkiller rivverkiller is online now

    White Rock
    Canada

    Posts: 6,350
    Joined: Feb 06

    Apr 21st, 2010 (4/21/2010 12:42am) in reply to Pooplips

    I don't think anyone doubts this isn't a +ev call. Whether or not it's a +$ev call is the question though.
     
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