Originally Posted by gjallen1975

I'm going put him on: '

-45% Set
-35% AJ, KK, AA, Jx
-10% J3
-10% J7

So, you're behind 55% of the time, ahead 35% of the time, and split 10%. If you're behind, it's probably bad. So at this point is there enough money in to justify the call? You're playing MTTs to win, but the final table is a bit different because the pay scale goes up so much each spot. Much more simple call during short-handed play wouldn't you agree? Having all the time in the world to analyze it, and zero of my own chips in the pot, I guess I can say that laying down two pair on the flop is probably the rigth move there. But....I don't know if I actually make that laydown if I were playing.

Couple questions? How long had you been at the final table? Did you just get there and was there a feeding frenzy as smallies shoved? Or, has it been a tight FT so far. I think that's everything. Average stack is a lot of big blinds here, so I think you have to base on what your average pots have been since you get there, unless are fortunate enough to have a read on some other things like whether or not your opponent would call AJ there or RR. If this guy's been putting stacks in with top pair since you got to the FT, that' one thing, but if he's been "feeling it out," then went bezerk, that's another.

Then there's another consideration. Your opponnent knows it's 16:1 against you having two hearts, and you would still need to hit another, so why shove over a with a set here instead of calling, hoping you hit something? Would your opponoent have slow rolled a set there? Nice example.

We have been at the final table for awhile, not sure exactly how long but enough to know both players are solid and neither of them have really gotten too outta line. Also I think flattin and jammin a set in nollid's spot are pretty much the same since hes never folding if i rejam, if anything a jam prolly looks a bit weaker. But I do agree with u that I am behind here more often than not.

 

Originally Posted by gjallen1975

I'm going put him on: '

-45% Set
-35% AJ, KK, AA, Jx
-10% J3
-10% J7

did you just make up these %'s out of thin air?

 

Originally Posted by gjallen1975

In general, that's what "I'm going to put him on...." means.

lol please take J3 and J7 out

 

Originally Posted by MastaP89

missclicks obv

Lol...exactly, you have to account for everything. Don't know what I was thinking J3. J7s....really...unless this player loves to price on with suited (3) gappers, really gotta take that out too....

imo there are two way to decide these percentages.

1. pure feeling/guessing
2. counting combo's..

1 = quicker
2 = probably more accurate.

Sick hand btw..

In game I probably snap happy shove but after thinking about it for a minute I think we can find a fold assuming villain knows he ISO's most likely over a AJ+ type of hand and sometimes a 89hh 9Th. Although if villain is solid he'll probably fold those PF with his stack size vs hero's UTG openings range.
I think we can exclude nollid shoving over villains shove w/AJ KJ hands.. combo draws he might re iso but that would definitely be at the bottom of his reshove range here.

QQ+ we can exclude as well a decent % of the time. Games are agressive and this spot would be such a good spot for Nolan to sqeeuze that he will do this with his top range as well more often then not.
A7hh is not likely to be in his range. He would 3bet them or fold them rather then calling.

So that basically only leaves sets: and most likely 77 in his range here with two combo draws (89hh 9Thh) that he could (and probably should) re-iso here given his stack size and the dead money in there + the amount of hands you should fold....

 

Originally Posted by Gags30

you said you 'put him on 45% set'....where did you come up with that he has a set 45% of the time? you just guessing at these numbers? what makes you say a set 45% of the time instead of 65% of the time or 25% of the time?

Just bcause I'm bored.

I think villains range will have JJ 33 77 89hh 9Thh and nothing else.

In the deck there is:
1x JJ
1x 33
2x 77
1x 89hh
1x 9Thh

Total combo's = 6
Sets = 4
combo draws = 2

33.3% combo draws
66.7% sets

prettty obv he has a set here like 42.395% of the time

 

Originally Posted by iPlayTourneys

So that basically only leaves sets: and most likely 77 in his range here with two combo draws (89hh 9Thh) that he could (and probably should) re-iso here given his stack size and the dead money in there + the amount of hands you should fold....



Just bcause I'm bored.

I think villains range will have JJ 33 77 89hh 9Thh and nothing else.

In the deck there is:
1x JJ
1x 33
2x 77
1x 89hh
1x 9Thh

Total combo's = 6
Sets = 4
combo draws = 2

33.3% combo draws
66.7% sets

i'm aware how to count combos of hands...i was wondering where gjallen got his numbers from

 

Originally Posted by gjallen1975

Two basic reasons:

#1: Stack sizes relative to BB: There is a lot of poker left to be played in this one and,
#2: If Opponent Had AJ he would RR preflop: If I'm chip leader 6 handed and my #2 is coming at me when I have AJ and we have that many BB left each, then I'm going to RR to get a better read on him. If I RR and he flats but doesn't shove, maybe I shove the flop with top pair, but if he shoves over my RR preflop, I just dump the AJ then. So, that's why I don't put him on AJ.
#3: That being said, me personally, if I'm chip leader in this spot, I don't CALL with anything there. If my cards are good enough to call my #2 with, they are good enough to RR him with. If I'm not comfortable pressuring my #2 there with a PP, I'll just dump it and let them kill eachother, or shove over the raise, but the blinds/antes are too big to show weakness in an obv steal spot for my #2. This is also why I have KK, AA grouped in with AJ. The weak call may not have been weak.

This still doesn't clarify the percentages you gave before..

Imo, you can only say this if you have been playing a lot and know villains game very well.. Even then its more of a guessing game.

 

Originally Posted by okse54

fyp

Ups... You are 100% right.. My bad..

so then it would be:
7 sets
2 combo-draws

=77% sets and 23% combodraws

Real question is how was your timebank management leading up to this pot?
If you had a decent amount of timebank left I probably fold ...
If you had no timebank left I call ...
If you had tons of timebank left I probably level myself into finding 2 hands I can beat and call

 

Originally Posted by gjallen1975

Thought about it more on the way home. OP calls and wins- no thread. OP folds and opponents flips set- no thread. OP folds and his opponent has AJ, he begins to wonder if his oppononent overplayed top-pair, or he underplayed two pair against that board, and post thread to get feedback. Considering this, I now do a complete reversal and say AJ. But stand by my remarks about AJ or anything being a bad call there. If I solved it, will OP finally repost the ending? Good fold, even though you could have had it.

call and lose tho..

i think another thing to take into account is just obviously how bad a spot is, and that your deep enough to say ok this is a real tough spot, its up in the air im not sure, but my gut tells me im beat, i can still fold losing basically the minimum, and wait for a better spot.

wow this is a really sick hand pocket. That being said I would tend to think nollid has bottom set or a huge draw, im leaning toward the mega draw, but its contingent on the history between you and nollid. Has he been very aggressive w/ his chip lead? Any pots earlier where he RR w/ draws against smaller all ins? How fast has he been betting thru out the FT? Also how fast did he re shove all in after the small stack stankee? I guess all things consider I lean towards a fold because your so deep stacked. Tell me you fold and he flips 77?

 

Originally Posted by kice32

I highly doubt his range is as tight as he makes it seem in this thread FWIW.

True that. Opponent must be thinking OP has a better chance of out-drawing him than having out-flopped him, so with that amount in already, snap shove to protect hand. So, I agree his calling range on the flop with AJ wold be shove-iso to protect, but I'm the guy saying he reraises AJ to begin with so you can take him off that hand (after careful analysis, but tough to do there at the table).

 

Originally Posted by p0cket00

lol sad but true, 3rd option is what happened, i had a lot of time bank left

Anyways guys I cant find the rest of the hand history, but I called and stankee had AJ and nollid 77. Thanks for everyone's replies and after thinking through the hand again and the replies in this thread I almost wanna say this is a fairly easy fold.

Yeah...three days to think about it and opinions for half the p5ers offers more clarity than having to make that decision then and there. Nice work hawks on the solve lol!!! GL all.