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call frequency

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  1. Dr.Guillotine Dr.Guillotine is offline

    Detroit, MI
    United States

    Posts: 212
    Joined: Jul 09

    Feb 28th, 2011 (2/28/2011 12:34am)

    I was wondering if its possible to be a losing tournament player even if you're shipping/calling when your ahead. Is there a frequency where you can call too much as a 60/40 favorite.

    for example, we call 3 times as a 60/40 favorite and win. Then we are covered by some random with another chance to call as a 60/40 favorite. If we call and lose we're out--obviously. How often should we be calling in x situation "before" the money.

    Somehow I don't think it's 100%. If we don't weight his range and consider all hands likely. Does our call frequency change?

    If we can weight his hand distribution does this number change?

    For example, we know villain's capable of jamming the button with a ten bb stack with 63% of his range (22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q4s+,J5s+,T7s+,93s+,85s+,73s+,63s+, 53s+,43s,A2o+,K5o+,Q5o+,J8o+,T7o+,96o+,87o,74o+,64 o+,53o+); However, we know villian selects from this range and has an affinity to jam the top and bottom.

    So, His range looks more like a polarized ~20% (99+,AQs+,A4s-A2s,KQs,K4s,Q4s-Q3s,J4s-J3s,52s+,42s+,32s,AQo+,A5o-A2o,KQo,52o+,42o+,32o).

    We can estimate that he weights his range like this 70% of the time.

    This feels like an ICM question, but I really think its different.

    This feel more like a question about how to improve our "Tournament Life Expectancy"/TLE or lulz call it our "Ship It Factor" versus regulars and players we have notes on.

    We assume the game condition is one where the villian has jammed 3 or more orbits from different late positions multiple times.
    Edited By: Dr.Guillotine Feb 28th, 2011 at 12:38 AM
    Reason: something that seemed relevant.
  2. gbmantis gbmantis is offline

    Waukesha, WI
    United States

    Posts: 7,413
    Joined: May 05

    Feb 28th, 2011 (2/28/2011 12:43am) in reply to Dr.Guillotine

    i dont think you can ever know anyones button range that precisely.
    1
  3. doubledave22 doubledave22 is offline

    NJ
    United States

    Posts: 4,719
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    Feb 28th, 2011 (2/28/2011 1:01am) in reply to gbmantis

    ur overthinknig it... if u beat someones range in a specific spot and you have the ability to range them somewhat accurately (ur first estimation idk wtf ur second one is) then u take the spot. to be a profitable player that means to identify the +ev spots, not wait because ur odds of being out of the tournament increases
    Edited By: doubledave22 Feb 28th, 2011 at 01:02 AM
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  4. BlindPyro BlindPyro is offline microlifer

    Posts: 297
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    Feb 28th, 2011 (2/28/2011 1:09am) in reply to doubledave22

    If villain is button jamming 10 bigs and has us covered we're pleased as punch to be 60/40. Passing on those types of edges should prob only happen in low/micro games where it's much easier to get paid, but imo even in those games when you're looking at 30+ effective, not 10.
  5. Dr.Guillotine Dr.Guillotine is offline

    Detroit, MI
    United States

    Posts: 212
    Joined: Jul 09

    Feb 28th, 2011 (2/28/2011 1:33am) in reply to BlindPyro

    Jeah Dave I totally agree with what you're saying. I just had 3 ideas come to mind. We are shortstacked. There is a wide shipper.

    We have a certain tournament life expectancy that is dwindled every time we get our chips in even ahead when we're covered.

    Isn't it interesting to think about it though when we're not covered and how our tournament life expectancy is essentially infinite. I understand our stack is finite according to blinds and antes, but the tournament life chances are infinite everytime we aren't covered.

    Maybe my c- grades in calc. III are talking to me.
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