Call or sigh fold?

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  1. jezzman30 jezzman30 is offline

    Australia

    Posts: 404
    Joined: Nov 08

    Nov 4th, 2009 (11/4/2009 7:10am)

    Full Tilt Poker Game #15786689767: $3 + $0.30 KO Sit & Go (115741021), Table 4 - 500/1000 Ante 125 - No Limit Hold'em - 7:07:18 ET - 2009/11/04

    Seat 1: whalezy (15,641)

    Seat 2: Shadow1980 (7,064)

    Seat 3: mazzakane (3,565)

    Seat 5: jrowe420 (18,950)

    Seat 6: Rustynuts2 (13,550)

    Seat 8: sandieko (7,195)

    Seat 9: Jezzman30 (30,180)

    whalezy antes 125

    Shadow1980 antes 125

    mazzakane antes 125

    jrowe420 antes 125

    Rustynuts2 antes 125

    sandieko antes 125

    Jezzman30 antes 125

    jrowe420 posts the small blind of 500

    Rustynuts2 posts the big blind of 1,000

    The button is in seat #4

    *** HOLE CARDS ***

    Dealt to Jezzman30 [Kc As]

    sandieko folds

    Jezzman30 raises to 3,000

    whalezy folds

    Shadow1980 folds

    mazzakane folds

    jrowe420 folds

    Rustynuts2 calls 2,000

    *** FLOP *** [Ts 6h Qc]

    Rustynuts2 bets 10,425, and is all in

    Jezzman30 has 15 seconds left to act......
  2. jesterwords jesterwords is online now

    Posts: 20,070
    Joined: Jan 06

    Nov 4th, 2009 (11/4/2009 7:56am) in reply to jezzman30

    Seat 9: Jezzman30 (30,180)

    Seat 6: Rustynuts2 (13,550)

    Just wondering why you would want to risk 1/3 of your stack with that flop? You are not really getting the right price to draw to 3 A's, 3 K's, and 4J's.
  3. car_t_a car_t_a is offline

    IA
    United States

    Posts: 396
    Joined: Oct 05

    Nov 4th, 2009 (11/4/2009 12:06pm) in reply to jezzman30

    ^^^^ agreed. Unless you have a solid read that the villain shoves flops with nothing you need to fold here.
  4. MetalGod MetalGod is offline

    Thomaston, CT
    United States

    Posts: 1,978
    Joined: Aug 05

    Nov 4th, 2009 (11/4/2009 4:12pm) in reply to jezzman30

    Fold. The only hands I could see you being ahead of here are KJ and maybe J9 unless of course you have a read on this player that tells you otherwise.
  5. KingBustYou KingBustYou is offline

    Antwerp
    Belgium

    Posts: 228
    Joined: Oct 09

    Nov 5th, 2009 (11/5/2009 10:55am) in reply to MetalGod

    forget the sigh, insta fold. please post some tough spots in the future, not a no brainer imo
  6. ABorges ABorges is offline

    Sines
    Portugal

    Posts: 272
    Joined: Jul 08

    Nov 5th, 2009 (11/5/2009 11:46am) in reply to jezzman30

    I don't think this is a clear cut fold like everyone's making it out to be. You have pot odds of roughly 1.7 to 1, thus needing 37% in equity vs his range for a call to be +cEV. So let's say his range is underpairs, a bunch of random tens, low queens, open enders and never two pairs or sets:
    77,55-22,ATs,KJs-KTs,QJs,Q9s,J9s+,T9s,ATo,KJo-KTo,QJo,Q9o,J9o+,T9o

    You have 42% in equity actually, which is significantly better than what you need. That range doesn't even account for random spazzes with no pair no draw, AJ, gutters, etc, so you might actually be closer to 45ish%. It's a pretty counter intuitive spot but math says call.
  7. jesterwords jesterwords is online now

    Posts: 20,070
    Joined: Jan 06

    Nov 5th, 2009 (11/5/2009 11:52am) in reply to ABorges

    Personally, I would not call in this situation, even if the math says that I should.

    Thanks for the math write up though, very cool contribution.
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