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Calling off with AKo

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  1. MYBLUEDOG MYBLUEDOG is online now

    Greenville, MS
    United States

    Posts: 1,998
    Joined: May 07

    Mar 13th, 2010 (3/13/2010 1:01am)

    Case set up Poker stars Micro-buy-in $1.10 to $4.40 MT-SNG: I'm not the player called HERO. I do see this quite often in MT-SNGs. I think the limp FTA is questionable to begin. I don't think AKo is strong enough to trap-limp with.

    Seat 1: (2750 in chips)
    Seat 2: (1210 in chips)
    Seat 3: (2000 in chips)
    Seat 4: HERO (2150 in chips)
    Seat 5: (1600 in chips)
    Seat 6: (1700 in chips)
    Seat 7: (1200 in chips)
    Seat 9: (2100 in chips)
    Seat 2: posts small blind 25
    Seat 3: posts big blind 50
    Dealt to HERO AsKd
    Seat 4: HERO calls 50
    Seat 5: folds
    Seat 6: folds
    Seat 7: folds
    Seat 9: calls 50
    Seat 1: raises 2700 to 2750 and is all-in
    xxxxx: folds
    xxxxx: folds
    Seat 4: HERO calls 2100 and is all-in
    Seat 9: folds
    Uncalled bet (580) returned to Seat 1:

    I asked this question, because I'm curious. We are slightly ahead or slightly behind and with a very playable stack 42bb after we limp FTA. Is there a training site or forum/blog that says "Never fold AKo" early in a tournament (level-4).

    We are usually not in the lead when we call versus a ppl with a pair and you will only connect with the board 25% to 40% of the time.

    I think that it's rather insane to call-off 42bb at level-4 with under 25 minutes into the MT-SNG. How deep do you have to be to consider folding in this situation, if you think this is an auto-call (snap) here?

    Poker stove hand range scenarios as follows:

    Best case scenarioVery loose villan

    HERO: 54.317% { AKo }
    villan..: 45.683% { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }

    Average case scenario average villan

    HERO: 52.448% { AKo }
    villan.: 47.552% { 99+, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, AQo+ }

    Worst case scenario Tight villan

    HERO: 43.135% { AKo }
    villan.: 56.865% { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
  2. mateo$55 mateo$55 is offline

    AZ
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    Mar 13th, 2010 (3/13/2010 1:55am) in reply to MYBLUEDOG

    AK is legit
     
  3. felipebball felipebball is offline

    New Zealand

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    Mar 13th, 2010 (3/13/2010 2:51am) in reply to mateo$55

    it's possible to fold AK preflop? my screen doesn't even come up with a fold button when i get it...
  4. Schukie Schukie is offline

    Bergenfield, NJ
    United States

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    Mar 13th, 2010 (3/13/2010 11:42am) in reply to felipebball

    Brag about actually getting dealt AK
     
  5. BlueRenegade BlueRenegade is offline

    Vancouver, WA
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    Mar 13th, 2010 (3/13/2010 1:33pm) in reply to Schukie

    In a $1-$4 MTT, how many ppl shoving there do you think fit your "very tight" villain category?

    In all other instances, you're like 52%+ against villain's range...so unless you have a "very tight" read on villain, you have a +EV call. Every now and again he'll have Aces or Kings and you'll be unhappy, sometimes you'll have a flip, sometimes he'll have AQ, AJ, or A2 and you're happy, sometimes he's got J4o and he's shoving because he's realized he's gotta go take a dump.

    Unless you have a read...call. I'm not Phil Ivey, but that's my opinion anyways.

    Blue
  6. mypokergrind mypokergrind is offline Banned

    Nashville, TN
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    Mar 13th, 2010 (3/13/2010 2:05pm) in reply to MYBLUEDOG

    AK has too call there IMO. As said before it is only bad if he has AA or KK.....and shoving AA or KK would be terrible so I doubt he has that. If he has AA or KK 95% they are just standard raising for value so call against what is most like a bad Ax or mid pair.
  7. leftygrove leftygrove is offline

    Storrs Mansfield, CT
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    Mar 13th, 2010 (3/13/2010 3:02pm) in reply to MYBLUEDOG

    I don't think limping then folding to a shove is optimal here. I think the "average case scenario" is somewhat reasonable, with a few tilt shoves thrown into his range.
  8. ntanygd760 ntanygd760 is offline

    Fort Drum, NY
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    Mar 13th, 2010 (3/13/2010 3:38pm) in reply to leftygrove

    im calling here unless another player calls b4 it gets back to me. Not even putting any thought into the call, super standard call at these low levels. fwiw im folding AQ
     
  9. Stacked121 Stacked121 is offline

    Des Plaines, IL
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    Mar 13th, 2010 (3/13/2010 3:59pm) in reply to ntanygd760

    What is their reason for limping with AK? If they are going to fold to some maniac who shoves 2700 to pick up 175 in the middle, why limp on the first place? I am never playing this hand this way, but if did, it would be to get my chips in the middle preflop in this type of a situation. You need to build a stack in these micro mtt's so the is a good opportunity to do so. Most times you are flipping or ahead of his range.
  10. MYBLUEDOG MYBLUEDOG is online now

    Greenville, MS
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    Mar 13th, 2010 (3/13/2010 8:19pm) in reply to MYBLUEDOG

    The devil has been listening:

    Here is an article that explains the math of getting it all-in with AKo earliy in a tournament. The chance to double up and expected win rates.

    To Flip or Not to Flip

    If that's the case, shouldn't we push all-in everytime we get AK and we have action in front of our decision?

    Exploiting small edges
    Thread Starter
  11. okse54 okse54 is offline

    New York, NY
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    Mar 13th, 2010 (3/13/2010 9:00pm) in reply to MYBLUEDOG

    " You need to estimate, then, the expected value (EV) of your brand-new $20,000 stack size at a later point in the tournament - the hypothetical point at which you'd eventually double up after declining the "coin flip." Let's reasonably (conservatively, actually) say that when you double up right away, your stack will be worth $22,000 at that hypothetical future point at which you would've found your better spot.

    It's time to do the math. If taking the "coin flip" gives you a 53.8 percent chance to have a stack of $22,000 later in the tournament, how likely do you have to be to double up later in order to fold your pocket queens? Well, you can answer that by solving this equation: x(20,000) = (.538)(22,000).

    Do the algebra and you get x = .5918, or 59.18 percent. So, do you think you're good enough to have a 59.18 percent chance of doubling up later on? If you said yes, you're wrong. Go back to our thought experiment. If you could consistently have a 59.18 percent chance of doubling up, you'd win a 1,024-player tournament more than five times as often as an average player. Trust me, you're not that good. I don't think it's possible to be that good. I'm certainly not that good."

    this is so dumb
     
  12. toddm902 toddm902 is offline

    Madison, WI
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    Mar 13th, 2010 (3/13/2010 9:07pm) in reply to MYBLUEDOG

    Personally I think your "Best case" and "Average" are incorrect from my experience. I feel that you could go down to A2o when talking about the 1.10 - 4.40. I think in a turbo sng or turbo mtt I would call every time....actually if I were to limp with AKo I would call every time in any blind structure.
  13. Gettin Daize Gettin Daize is offline

    Costa Rica

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    Mar 13th, 2010 (3/13/2010 9:31pm) in reply to MYBLUEDOG

    its 4 dollars call and move on lol
    2 211 
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