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Calling Range: Blind vs Blind in Million facing Big Shove

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  1. WiCane WiCane is offline

    San Diego, CA
    United States

    Posts: 2,606
    Joined: Jan 06

    Feb 14th, 2010 (2/14/2010 7:58pm)

    Player had been on my left for about one orbit. Seemed to make his decisions before the action was on him (check auto fold with a bad hand). He wasn't being aggressive at all. He sattied into the mill and has a low average buy in.

    He instashoved my raise (surpised me) and we are nearing the bubble. Don't care about cashing. 43BB effective stacks.

    Seat 1: vaIuDe (57894 in chips)
    Seat 2: The 12 Avoid (40787 in chips)
    Seat 3: WiCane (107712 in chips)
    Seat 4: lammersd (156095 in chips)
    Seat 5: L501 (20224 in chips)
    Seat 6: bullyon (30290 in chips)
    Seat 7: ifyasmell19 (71838 in chips)
    Seat 8: PokerKid223 (9450 in chips)
    Seat 9: pharaohus (17425 in chips)
    vaIuDe: posts the ante 250
    The 12 Avoid: posts the ante 250
    WiCane: posts the ante 250
    lammersd: posts the ante 250
    L501: posts the ante 250
    bullyon: posts the ante 250
    ifyasmell19: posts the ante 250
    PokerKid223: posts the ante 250
    pharaohus: posts the ante 250
    WiCane: posts small blind 1250
    lammersd: posts big blind 2500
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to WiCane [X, X]
    L501: folds
    bullyon: folds
    ifyasmell19: folds
    PokerKid223: folds
    pharaohus has timed out
    pharaohus: folds
    pharaohus is sitting out
    vaIuDe: folds
    pharaohus has returned
    The 12 Avoid: folds
    WiCane: raises 4275 to 6775
    lammersd: raises 149070 to 155845 and is all-in
    WiCane:
     
  2. anticure anticure is offline

    Oshkosh, WI
    United States

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    Feb 14th, 2010 (2/14/2010 8:02pm) in reply to WiCane

    AJ+ and 77+
     
  3. P33J P33J is offline

    Bloomington, IN
    United States

    Posts: 1,144
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    Feb 14th, 2010 (2/14/2010 8:18pm) in reply to anticure

    AK QQ+ No way would I ever dream calling with AJ or 77 here.
     
  4. anticure anticure is offline

    Oshkosh, WI
    United States

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    Feb 14th, 2010 (2/14/2010 8:25pm) in reply to P33J

     
    Originally Posted by P33J View Post

    AK QQ+ No way would I ever dream calling with AJ or 77 here.

    ()
     
  5. MakeMeMaster MakeMeMaster is offline

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    Feb 14th, 2010 (2/14/2010 8:50pm) in reply to anticure

    AK, TT+
    3 
  6. Nathan Zamora Nathan Zamora is offline

    Houston, TX
    United States

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    Feb 14th, 2010 (2/14/2010 8:53pm) in reply to P33J

     
    Originally Posted by P33J View Post

    AK QQ+ No way would I ever dream calling with AJ or 77 here.

    Almost every player I face at the low avg b/is I play does not shove much worse than this on that kind of stack.
  7. shanetrain22 shanetrain22 is offline

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    Feb 14th, 2010 (2/14/2010 8:53pm) in reply to WiCane

    That's a big shove yo.

    99+/AQ+ I guess. Calling with something like 77 is pretty bad imo.
     1
  8. tyson219 tyson219 is offline Moderator

    New York, NY
    United States

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    Feb 14th, 2010 (2/14/2010 8:54pm) in reply to MakeMeMaster

     
    Originally Posted by MakeMeMaster View Post

    AK, TT+

    Nice stealth edit. I agree with this.
     969 
  9. P33J P33J is offline

    Bloomington, IN
    United States

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    Feb 14th, 2010 (2/14/2010 9:03pm) in reply to anticure

     
    Originally Posted by anticure View Post

     
    Originally Posted by P33J View Post

    AK QQ+ No way would I ever dream calling with AJ or 77 here.

    ()

    idk what that means but i wasn't attacking you or anything, you are clearly better than me at the pokers. I just don't think a random on the bubble of the mill who sattied in is reshoving 40bbs with 66 or AT.
     
  10. shanetrain22 shanetrain22 is offline

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    Feb 14th, 2010 (2/14/2010 9:09pm) in reply to P33J

     
    Originally Posted by P33J View Post

    AK QQ+ No way would I ever dream calling with AJ or 77 here.

    Calling with AKo and folding JJ makes no sense fwiw. Folding either of them would be a crime tho.
     1
  11. P33J P33J is offline

    Bloomington, IN
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    Feb 14th, 2010 (2/14/2010 9:22pm) in reply to shanetrain22

     
    Originally Posted by shanetrain22 View Post

    Calling with AKo and folding JJ makes no sense fwiw. Folding either of them would be a crime tho.

    What kind of range would you give the villian in this hand? In retrospect i am fine with calling jacks as well I suppose, but doesn't AK play better vs any kind of really strong range than JJ?
     
  12. qjuice14 qjuice14 is offline

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    Feb 14th, 2010 (2/14/2010 9:35pm) in reply to shanetrain22

     
    Originally Posted by shanetrain22 View Post

    99+/AQ+ I guess.

    I think this is still too wide. even if that is just ahead of his range, i think the value of having a 100k stack in the million as soon as the money breaks is far more valuable than taking a slightly +EV situation spot on the bubble.

    lets say that 99+/AQ+ is 55% vs. his range, which im not convinced that it is. Even though it is +cEV to call, I don't think it is long term optimally +$EV to call.

    For simplicities sake, b/c i don't have the hh in front of me and i don't want to do math, lets go w/ my approximations.

    if you are 55% vs. his range, if you play this 100x then 55x you have 200k and 45x you are busted w/ $0. when you fold, you have 100k 100x plus the base $300 payout.

    b/c the field size itm is so large, and the payouts are so flat to start, i can't imagine that former would yield a great longterm $EV. if the field was considerably shorter than i think you can call wider.

    given this type of field size, the stacks, and the flat payouts, when considering calling in this situation it is very close to calling in a satelite. the chips you lose are much more valuable than the chips you gain when calling off covered.
     
  13. shanetrain22 shanetrain22 is offline

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    Feb 14th, 2010 (2/14/2010 9:55pm) in reply to WiCane

    Let's say his jamming range is 99-QQ/AQ+ and give him 1/2 the combos of KK. I have a pretty hard time giving him a tighter range than that (note that it doesn't consist of any random spazz hands whatsoever), and vs that range, TT is 48%, AKo is 52%, AKs is 54%, and JJ is 55%. While I agree with some of what you said, are you saying we should really be folding any/all of those hands?

    I can't fathom calling with QQ+ only here.
     1
  14. trashersSs trashersSs is offline

    Bécancour
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    Feb 14th, 2010 (2/14/2010 10:20pm) in reply to shanetrain22

    AQ+ TT+
  15. qjuice14 qjuice14 is offline

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    Feb 14th, 2010 (2/14/2010 10:48pm) in reply to shanetrain22

    your calculations seem to only reflect chip equity here. There is huge difference, in this type of situation, between cEV and $EV decisions.
     
  16. nuttedup nuttedup is offline

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    Feb 14th, 2010 (2/14/2010 10:55pm) in reply to WiCane

    Villain in this hand is -58% on tpdb over a small sample of 314 tourneys with an abi of ~30. I'm certainly calling 99+, AQ+ here. I may even widen it slightly since his range is unlikely to include KK, AA.
  17. NarcoCop NarcoCop is offline

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    Feb 14th, 2010 (2/14/2010 11:03pm) in reply to nuttedup

    AK, TT+ IMO, Over 40bb shove just seems way too spewy to be shoving with anything under AK , 99+.
     
  18. shanetrain22 shanetrain22 is offline

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    Feb 14th, 2010 (2/14/2010 11:13pm) in reply to qjuice14

     
    Originally Posted by qjuice14 View Post

    your calculations seem to only reflect chip equity here. There is huge difference, in this type of situation, between cEV and $EV decisions.

    Yik, those are obv just #s from stove.

    There is clearly SOME difference between cEV and $EV here. I just don't think it's big enough to be folding JJ, and I don't think it's particularly close either. A decent case could probably be made for mucking 99/TT/AQ tho.

    Hero has ~40bb. If he had 60, 80, 100+ then I'd start to agree with you more. But not with 40 and JJ.
     1
  19. shanetrain22 shanetrain22 is offline

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    Feb 14th, 2010 (2/14/2010 11:15pm) in reply to NarcoCop

     
    Originally Posted by NarcoCop View Post

    AK, TT+ IMO, Over 40bb shove just seems way too spewy to be shoving with anything under AK , 99+.

    It's the Sunday Mill. Villain is a random. It's BvB. Doubt you should be giving this guy credit for not being bad/spewy.
     1
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