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Calling Range BvB vs. CL on the bubble of a Stars $16/18

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  1. MDG0RD0N MDG0RD0N is offline

    Posts: 401
    Joined: Dec 08

    Mar 22nd, 2009 (3/22/2009 8:29pm)

    pokerstars $15+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level X (400/800) 9-max
    Seat #8 is the button
    <span>Seat 4: MDG0RD0N (3664 in chips)</span>
    Seat 6: SPICY GUMBO (3845 in chips)
    Seat 7: $indabank111 (1061 in chips)
    Seat 8: junior866 (6332 in chips)
    <span>Seat 9: reasons14 (12098 in chips) </span>
    MDG0RD0N: posts the ante 50
    SPICY GUMBO: posts the ante 50
    $indabank111: posts the ante 50
    junior866: posts the ante 50
    reasons14: posts the ante 50
    reasons14: posts small blind 400
    MDG0RD0N: posts big blind 800
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    <span>Dealt to MDG0RD0N [Xx Xx]</span>
    SPICY GUMBO: folds
    $indabank111: folds
    junior866: folds
    <span>reasons14: raises 11248 to 12048 and is all-in</span>
    MDG0RD0N: ??

    Okay P5'ers, here's a hand BvB on the bubble of a $16/18 (pays 108, 81, 54, 27).
    What's your calling range here, with shortie going to be forced into action in two hands. I know Reasons is a very good grinder who knows what he is doing, and is likely shipping ATC here...he's been abusing the bubble last few hands etc.

    If I double up here, my stack goes to 7500, and I bring him down to 8400. I'll have position on him, contending for the CL on the bubble. Once the short stack goes out, I'll take every opportunity to abuse the low stacks etc.

    Here's the Nash Equilibrium for this spot:
    ICM Nash Calculator Results

    However, we know that ICM does not account for the fact that shortie will be in soon, and that it assumes this is the final hand and that we will be picking jellybeans to determine the winner after this.

    It also doesn't take into account the +EV I'll gain when I can abuse the low guys after I double up.

    Does it change your calling range at all if you are <span>absolutely certain </span>Reasons is shipping ATC?

    Thanks all.
  2. POKER_PANDA POKER_PANDA is offline

    Tahoe City, CA
    United States

    Posts: 4,520
    Joined: May 06

    Mar 22nd, 2009 (3/22/2009 8:35pm) in reply to MDG0RD0N

    prolly jj, aq+ maybe tens and aj sooted. its not a given u cash by any means, but its so important to cash that i think u should b calling tight here, even though villian is pushing any 2. i could be way off though =/
  3. MYBLUEDOG MYBLUEDOG is online now

    Greenville, MS
    United States

    Posts: 1,998
    Joined: May 07

    Mar 23rd, 2009 (3/23/2009 1:45am) in reply to MDG0RD0N

    Even if he's shipping ATC you will bust out with $0.00 from 30% to 40% if you elect to <span>CALL ALL-IN</span> lite.

    Roughly, 35% of the time you will go broke on this hand. The other 65% you are still not guaranteed to make the money, even though your position will be stronger. Your position was that you could abuse the short stacks (I agree). Short stacks are going to pick up hands and out last you 5% to 15% of the time after you double through.

    35% go broke on this hand $0.00
    5% go broke after double-up $0.00

    60% you make the money. You equity is about $68.33. I ran Nash to calculate your equity if you double up.

    Going broke is catistrophic lost, so I still only call pretty tight. I'm more on the tight side so I'm probably leaning to calling in the 5% (5.9%, 88+ AJs+ AQo+) range than the 12%, (66+ A7s+ A9o+ KTs+ KQo).

    Holdemresource Calculate Equity, Call & Win

    If you fold, your equity remains at $41.31

    Holdemresource Calculate Equity, Fold
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