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Can anyone put a number to the advantage of doubling up early (MTT)?

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  1. R P L R P L is offline

    Biloxi, MS
    United States

    Posts: 97
    Joined: Feb 06

    Mar 25th, 2006 (3/25/2006 8:14pm)

    Since I know some of you have thousands of MTTs recorded - has anyone ever tried to quantify doubling up early in an MTT?

    I have seen many posts which advocate playing really loose in the first couple of blind levels in an attempt to double up. Can anyone put some numbers to that? Would anyone be able to say "My ROI/ITM is X, but when I double up (or more) within the first three blind levels, my ROI/ITM is y"?

    I'd be awful interested in those numbers.

    I don't beleive I have a statistically relevant sample size, but I'll post what I have tomorrow if anyone's interested...

    Randy
  2. seal seal is offline

    Posts: 2,786
    Joined: Jan 05

    Mar 25th, 2006 (3/25/2006 8:22pm) in reply to R P L

    0

    seriously - I find no advantage at all in having more
    chips at first break.
  3. blinky blinky is offline

    Berkeley, CA
    United States

    Posts: 104
    Joined: Aug 05

    Mar 25th, 2006 (3/25/2006 8:25pm) in reply to seal

    Looking at my 500 tourney database I'd say its about 42 or so.
  4. DexterCain DexterCain is offline

    Posts: 13,456
    Joined: Aug 05

    Mar 25th, 2006 (3/25/2006 9:21pm) in reply to blinky

    RPL,
    check 2+2 under MTT. Tere is a giant thread with PaulPhillips and Raymer, among others, discussiing this very thing, sorry i dont have the link
  5. StephenProsperd StephenProsperd is offline

    Herndon, VA
    United States

    Posts: 149
    Joined: Sep 05

    Mar 25th, 2006 (3/25/2006 10:59pm) in reply to DexterCain

    Matt Matros also has a very substantiated opinion on this in his cardplayer column, he wonders if you should call an all in with AK the very first hand of a tournament if you saw an opponents hole cards QQ. He is talking about a 10k buyin live tourney also. Here is the link to the article. http://cardplayer.com/poker_magazine...amp;m_id=65576
  6. DexterCain DexterCain is offline

    Posts: 13,456
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    Mar 25th, 2006 (3/25/2006 11:12pm) in reply to StephenProsperd

    stephen, yes that is a great article.
  7. R P L R P L is offline

    Biloxi, MS
    United States

    Posts: 97
    Joined: Feb 06

    Mar 26th, 2006 (3/26/2006 11:02am) in reply to R P L

    Yup, that's a damn fine article - especially this part:
    "
    Some say calling with the queens would amount to a good player letting his skill go to waste. Here’s the thing about poker — the skill is about finding edges. And edges are precious. Think about it; on most hands, we fold before the flop. It’s very hard to find a way to get our chips in profitably. And here, we have a known edge. We know that in the long run, we’ll earn $810 by calling with the Q-Q. That’s not a small edge. Folding here would be akin to flushing an hour’s work down the toilet. Calling here doesn’t negate our skill over the field. Calling here is our skill over the field.

    You don’t want to risk your whole tournament on one hand? Then you shouldn’t be in the tournament. The only question you should be asking yourself is, “Will I make more money in the long run by calling here?” And even if it’s “the experience” you’re after, wouldn’t the experience of a final-table run be much more valuable than the experience of playing for a day or so and then busting out near the bubble?"

    And I completely agree - I'd call with the queens 100% of the time and lose no sleep about it. But its not exactly what I'm asking.

    Is it the proper strategy to play a whole lot of hands early in a tournament in an attempt to double up? Elsewhere in the article, he says that if you can find a 48% chance to double up, you should take it even though its a losing bet. That's more like what I 'm asking - double up or die type stuff. It would seem to me that he is advocating this strategy.

    As promised - here's my numbers when I doubled up in the first three blind levels:

    Out of 50 $22 180 man SNGs @PS:

    DID NOT Double Up In First 3 levels: 34 -- ITM 6 (17%)
    DID Double Up in First 3 Levels: 16 -- ITM 7 (43%)

    Double up in 1st Level: 4 - ITM 2 (50%)

    So, from this VERY limited sample size, I was more than twice as likely to finish ITM when doubling up before the 4th blind level, and Three times as likely to finish ITM when doubling up in the first...

    Hmmmmm.....

    This won't really effect my general strategy much, which is to play loose in the first few levels - but what it WILL do is make me bet more aggressivley I think. I've been into value betting on made hands early - I may start going all in instead and hoping for a call. My numbers are there...

    Randy
    Thread Starter
  8. jemenz jemenz is offline

    Elk Grove, CA
    United States

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    Mar 26th, 2006 (3/26/2006 11:20am) in reply to R P L

    It means next to nothing in small buy in on line events, but it seemed to make a much bigger difference in the large money tournaments, just like ring games, bluffing is not even part of the small stakes games.
  9. Bullox Bullox is offline

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    Mar 26th, 2006 (3/26/2006 11:33am) in reply to jemenz

    ive folded KK preflop on that same notion ,,bein 1 of 2 Big stacks left in a tourney with about 13 left and 7 places being paid and the rest of the players not havin half as many chips as me or the other guy
    th
    the other big stack pushed all in while i was on the BB

    now blinds were relativly small compared to the stack i had and we had been playin for over an hour and a half

    i folded my KK and he showed 55

    now i had him dominated yes but for my hour and a half of play time it wasnt worth riskin all my chips especially when he was stealin a pot that was only .01% of my satck
  10. jemenz jemenz is offline

    Elk Grove, CA
    United States

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    Mar 26th, 2006 (3/26/2006 11:42am) in reply to Bullox

    No offense, there are plenty of ways to play, but I play all tournament just for that situation, I figure it 70/30 at best, I give him no chance for AA, and 1st pays so much more then second, heres your chance to gain control in a very favorable situation, IMO.
  11. betbrett betbrett is offline

    United States

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    Mar 26th, 2006 (3/26/2006 11:49am) in reply to jemenz

    Taking that race to double up in mid to later stages of a tourney are going to be wayyy more profitable than the risk/reward of doubling in the early stages.

    a wise man whose video I just watched addresses this 'end game' philosphy. I'd mention the site but some jerk would get offended. LOL
  12. Dissident Dissident is offline

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    Mar 26th, 2006 (3/26/2006 12:00pm) in reply to betbrett

    cough theparamount cough
  13. Bullox Bullox is offline

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    Mar 26th, 2006 (3/26/2006 12:36pm) in reply to betbrett

    btw i did win the tourney
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