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Can anyone tell me the odds?

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  1. Happyrobot Happyrobot is offline

    United States

    Posts: 80
    Joined: Jun 07

    Mar 26th, 2009 (3/26/2009 8:51pm)

    of the same guy flopping quad Jacks 2 out of the first 3 hands of this donkament?

    Full Tilt Poker Game #11066083527: $10 + $1 Sit & Go (83260096), Table 4 - 15/30 - No Limit Hold'em - 13:16:11 ET - 2009/03/10
    Seat 1: brontophob (1,500)
    Seat 2: HappyRobot (1,500)
    Seat 3: collects chips (1,500)
    Seat 4: wsmiii (1,500)
    Seat 5: Legitwise (1,500)
    Seat 6: 12bubba12 (1,500)
    Seat 7: columbus61 (1,500)
    Seat 8: mingomat (1,500)
    Seat 9: Saigon71 (1,500)
    brontophob posts the small blind of 15
    HappyRobot posts the big blind of 30
    The button is in seat #9
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to HappyRobot [Ah 6d]
    collects chips calls 30
    wsmiii folds
    Legitwise folds
    12bubba12 folds
    columbus61 raises to 120
    mingomat has 15 seconds left to act
    mingomat folds
    Saigon71 folds
    brontophob folds
    HappyRobot folds
    collects chips calls 90
    *** FLOP *** [Jd Jc Jh]
    collects chips checks
    columbus61 bets 300
    collects chips calls 300
    *** TURN *** [Jd Jc Jh] [2s]
    collects chips checks
    columbus61 bets 1,080, and is all in
    collects chips calls 1,080, and is all in
    columbus61 shows [7h 7c]
    collects chips shows [Js Qs]
    *** RIVER *** [Jd Jc Jh 2s] [9h]
    columbus61 shows a full house, Jacks full of Sevens
    collects chips shows four of a kind, Jacks
    collects chips wins the pot (3,045) with four of a kind, Jacks
    columbus61 stands up
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 3,045 | Rake 0
    Board: [Jd Jc Jh 2s 9h]
    Seat 1: brontophob (small blind) folded before the Flop
    Seat 2: HappyRobot (big blind) folded before the Flop
    Seat 3: collects chips showed [Js Qs] and won (3,045) with four of a kind, Jacks
    Seat 4: wsmiii didn't bet (folded)
    Seat 5: Legitwise didn't bet (folded)
    Seat 6: 12bubba12 didn't bet (folded)
    Seat 7: columbus61 showed [7h 7c] and lost with a full house, Jacks full of Sevens
    Seat 8: mingomat didn't bet (folded)
    Seat 9: Saigon71 (button) didn't bet (folded)

    Full Tilt Poker Game #11066097059: $10 + $1 Sit & Go (83260096), Table 4 - 15/30 - No Limit Hold'em - 13:17:16 ET - 2009/03/10
    Seat 1: brontophob (1,485)
    Seat 2: HappyRobot (1,470)
    Seat 3: collects chips (3,045)
    Seat 4: wsmiii (1,500)
    Seat 5: Legitwise (1,500)
    Seat 6: 12bubba12 (1,500)
    Seat 8: mingomat (1,500)
    Seat 9: Saigon71 (1,500)
    HappyRobot posts the small blind of 15
    collects chips posts the big blind of 30
    The button is in seat #1
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to HappyRobot [7s 7d]
    wsmiii folds
    Legitwise folds
    12bubba12 folds
    Saigon71: good start
    mingomat calls 30
    Saigon71 folds
    collects chips: good 1st hand lol
    brontophob folds
    HappyRobot calls 15
    collects chips checks
    *** FLOP *** [3c 8s Qc]
    HappyRobot checks
    collects chips checks
    mingomat checks
    *** TURN *** [3c 8s Qc] [Kh]
    HappyRobot has 15 seconds left to act
    HappyRobot checks
    collects chips checks
    mingomat bets 80
    HappyRobot has 15 seconds left to act
    HappyRobot folds
    collects chips folds
    Uncalled bet of 80 returned to mingomat
    mingomat mucks
    mingomat wins the pot (90)
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 90 | Rake 0
    Board: [3c 8s Qc Kh]
    Seat 1: brontophob (button) didn't bet (folded)
    Seat 2: HappyRobot (small blind) folded on the Turn
    Seat 3: collects chips (big blind) folded on the Turn
    Seat 4: wsmiii didn't bet (folded)
    Seat 5: Legitwise didn't bet (folded)
    Seat 6: 12bubba12 didn't bet (folded)
    Seat 8: mingomat collected (90), mucked
    Seat 9: Saigon71 didn't bet (folded)

    Full Tilt Poker Game #11066113720: $10 + $1 Sit & Go (83260096), Table 4 - 15/30 - No Limit Hold'em - 13:18:37 ET - 2009/03/10
    Seat 1: brontophob (1,485)
    Seat 2: HappyRobot (1,440)
    Seat 3: collects chips (3,015)
    Seat 4: wsmiii (1,500)
    Seat 5: Legitwise (1,500)
    Seat 6: 12bubba12 (1,500)
    Seat 8: mingomat (1,560)
    Seat 9: Saigon71 (1,500)
    collects chips posts the small blind of 15
    wsmiii posts the big blind of 30
    The button is in seat #2
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to HappyRobot [6s As]
    Legitwise calls 30
    12bubba12 calls 30
    mingomat calls 30
    Saigon71 folds
    brontophob folds
    HappyRobot calls 30
    collects chips raises to 150
    wsmiii folds
    Legitwise has 15 seconds left to act
    Legitwise folds
    12bubba12 folds
    mingomat folds
    HappyRobot has 15 seconds left to act
    HappyRobot calls 120
    *** FLOP *** [Js 8s Jd]
    collects chips checks
    HappyRobot checks
    *** TURN *** [Js 8s Jd] [2s]
    collects chips checks
    HappyRobot has 15 seconds left to act
    HappyRobot bets 260
    collects chips has 15 seconds left to act
    collects chips calls 260
    *** RIVER *** [Js 8s Jd 2s] [5d]
    collects chips has 15 seconds left to act
    collects chips bets 420
    HappyRobot has 15 seconds left to act
    HappyRobot raises to 1,030, and is all in
    collects chips calls 610
    *** SHOW DOWN ***
    HappyRobot shows [6s As] a flush, Ace high
    collects chips shows [Jh Jc] four of a kind, Jacks
    collects chips wins the pot (3,000) with four of a kind, Jacks
    HappyRobot stands up
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 3,000 | Rake 0
    Board: [Js 8s Jd 2s 5d]
    Seat 1: brontophob didn't bet (folded)
    Seat 2: HappyRobot (button) showed [6s As] and lost with a flush, Ace high
    Seat 3: collects chips (small blind) showed [Jh Jc] and won (3,000) with four of a kind, Jacks
    Seat 4: wsmiii (big blind) folded before the Flop
    Seat 5: Legitwise folded before the Flop
    Seat 6: 12bubba12 folded before the Flop
    Seat 8: mingomat folded before the Flop
    Seat 9: Saigon71 didn't bet (folded)
  2. mateo$55 mateo$55 is offline

    AZ
    United States

    Posts: 421
    Joined: Dec 06

    Mar 26th, 2009 (3/26/2009 8:53pm) in reply to Happyrobot

    50/50
     
  3. SypsG SypsG is offline

    Fredericksburg, VA
    United States

    Posts: 205
    Joined: Jul 08

    Mar 26th, 2009 (3/26/2009 8:58pm) in reply to mateo$55

     
    Originally Posted by mateo$55 View Post

    50/50

    I disagree, probably closer to 60/40.
  4. mateo$55 mateo$55 is offline

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    United States

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    Mar 26th, 2009 (3/26/2009 9:20pm) in reply to Happyrobot

    <H4 class=P5_PostHeader> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=center><TD vAlign=top align=left rowSpan=2> </TD><TD align=left colSpan=2><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>Re:Can anyone tell me the odds? </TD><TD vAlign=center align=right>In reply to </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD align=left>By SypsG on 03-26-2009 7:58 PM </TD><TD align=right>Reply Quote </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></H4> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=P5_PostContent><TABLE height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=ForumPostContentText><BLOCKQUOTE> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=P5_Quote_Author> mateo$55:</TD><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
    50/50

    </BLOCKQUOTE>

    I disagree, probably closer to 60/40.
    </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

    there is nothing to disagree about... It is clearly 50/50, he either flops quad J's on 2 of the first 3 hands or he does not.
     
  5. Happyrobot Happyrobot is offline

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    Posts: 80
    Joined: Jun 07

    Mar 26th, 2009 (3/26/2009 11:02pm) in reply to SypsG

    As expected. 0/3 on the humor attempts.

    Could anyone tell me how i could go about figuring this out?
    I have a bet w/ a buddy on the odds here.
    Thread Starter
  6. Dirty donkey Dirty donkey is offline

    Jacksonville, FL
    United States

    Posts: 680
    Joined: Sep 08

    Mar 26th, 2009 (3/26/2009 11:12pm) in reply to Happyrobot

    I'll take the under for $50
  7. Happyrobot Happyrobot is offline

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    Posts: 80
    Joined: Jun 07

    Mar 27th, 2009 (3/27/2009 9:52am) in reply to Dirty donkey

    Ok, how bout someone giving me the odds on a serious response?
    Back to lurker mode i go.
    Thread Starter
  8. degen666 degen666 is offline

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    Joined: Mar 09

    Mar 27th, 2009 (3/27/2009 9:56am) in reply to Happyrobot

    814 to 1 chance
  9. kportune kportune is offline

    Savannah, GA
    United States

    Posts: 1,349
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    Mar 27th, 2009 (3/27/2009 10:00am) in reply to Happyrobot

    ~9,800 to 1 on the unpaired hole cards
    ~407 to 1 on the pocket pair

    there's a start...
  10. Happyrobot Happyrobot is offline

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    Mar 27th, 2009 (3/27/2009 10:14am) in reply to kportune

     
    Originally Posted by kportune View Post

    ~9,800 to 1 on the unpaired hole cards
    ~407 to 1 on the pocket pair

    there's a start...

    That is a start. Thanks

    Now i just need to figure out...... the fact that they were the very same quads to the very same player and both quads were flopped and then the chances that it was dealt in 2 out of 3 hands. FUCK ME!!!!
    Thread Starter
  11. Pghfan987 Pghfan987 is offline

    Costa Rica

    Posts: 9,668
    Joined: May 08

    Mar 27th, 2009 (3/27/2009 10:50am) in reply to mateo$55

     
    Originally Posted by mateo$55 View Post

    50/50

    This is not enough close. It is at least ... three times less likely for this to happen.

    660 1
  12. calibre908 calibre908 is offline

    Marlboro, NJ
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    Mar 27th, 2009 (3/27/2009 10:57am) in reply to Happyrobot

    also add in the fact that both times it happened when ur holdings were a6 and i'd say the chances near like 1 in a billion
  13. Happyrobot Happyrobot is offline

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    Mar 27th, 2009 (3/27/2009 11:19am) in reply to calibre908

     
    Originally Posted by calibre908 View Post

    also add in the fact that both times it happened when ur holdings were a6 and i'd say the chances near like 1 in a billion

    Damn, missed that one too. So gross. I didnt take enough probability classes to even start to figure out the exact odds of this. But the numbers are starting to look like i will win the bet.

    Math whiz's plz help me out.
    Thread Starter
  14. kgil33 kgil33 is offline

    Tulsa, OK
    United States

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    Mar 27th, 2009 (3/27/2009 12:20pm) in reply to Happyrobot

    rough numbers:

    flopping quads with pocket pair, 2 out of 3: 1 in 8 billion
    flopping quads with single J in hand: 2 of 3: 1 in 16.2 billion.
    flopping quads doing it 1 of each ways 2 of 3: 1 in 11.5 billion

    again..roughly
  15. Happyrobot Happyrobot is offline

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    Mar 27th, 2009 (3/27/2009 12:46pm) in reply to kgil33

     
    Originally Posted by kgil33 View Post

    rough numbers:

    flopping quads with pocket pair, 2 out of 3: 1 in 8 billion
    flopping quads with single J in hand: 2 of 3: 1 in 16.2 billion.
    flopping quads doing it 1 of each ways 2 of 3: 1 in 11.5 billion

    again..roughly

    Very nice sir. Thank you.
    May i ask how i could put this on paper to win my bet? I took the over on 1 billion to 1
    Thread Starter
  16. kgil33 kgil33 is offline

    Tulsa, OK
    United States

    Posts: 220
    Joined: Jun 06

    Mar 27th, 2009 (3/27/2009 1:50pm) in reply to Happyrobot

    These numbers (and explanation) are very simplistic, but gives you a rough idea.

    Simplistic in that there are surely other factors that might make the numbers even bigger (meaning, even LESS of a chance). But simple odds/probabilities still apply.

    Chance of flipping a coin and landing heads: 1/2
    Chance of doing it 2x in a row = 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4

    applying that to this situation you get:

    Chance of being dealt JJ = 1/221
    chance of flopping quads with them = 1/407
    chance of that happening on a specific hand = 1/221 x 1/407 (= 1/89937)
    chance it happens back to back (or 2 of 3 hands)

    1/221 x 1/407 x 1/221 x 1/407 = 1/~8billion

    etc etc

    to get the other numbers, just sub 407 with 9800, and I took some liberties here, but sub 1/221 (chance of pocket jacks) with 1/13 (chance of simply getting a single jack, per card). that latter number is actually 1/13 x 3/51 (2 cards, chance of J each time etc) but those only make it MORE of a long shot..blah blah

    1 in 8B is the smallest you'll get, any other combo is more of a long shot...
  17. Happyrobot Happyrobot is offline

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    Mar 27th, 2009 (3/27/2009 3:19pm) in reply to kgil33

    Incredible, thanks alot man.
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