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Can I fold this?

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  1. rrizgod rrizgod is offline

    Encinitas, CA
    United States

    Posts: 118
    Joined: Oct 06

    Mar 16th, 2007 (3/16/2007 12:52pm)

    Assuming no read, can I fold this?

    pokerstars Game #8929931379: Tournament #44846678, $20+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2007/03/16 - 12:47:33 (ET)
    Table '44846678 3' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
    Seat 1: pommitaja (1125 in chips)
    Seat 2: TH_Webl (3125 in chips)
    Seat 3: rake fools2 (3275 in chips)
    Seat 4: Xilven (1285 in chips)
    Seat 5: Mikey_Blueys (1930 in chips)
    Seat 6: Spieka (1650 in chips)
    Seat 7: gotvoip (2210 in chips)
    Seat 8: Jnelson214 (2125 in chips)
    Seat 9: rrigod (1440 in chips)
    rake fools2: posts small blind 50
    Xilven: posts big blind 100
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to rrigod [Ah Td]
    Mikey_Blueys: folds
    Spieka: folds
    gotvoip: folds
    Jnelson214: folds
    rrigod: raises 200 to 300
    pommitaja: folds
    TH_Webl: folds
    rake fools2: folds
    Xilven: calls 200
    *** FLOP *** [2c 9h 4d]
    Xilven: checks
    rrigod: bets 400
    Xilven: raises 585 to 985 and is all-in
  2. LDM LDM is offline

    Gallatin, TN
    United States

    Posts: 7,818
    Joined: Feb 06

    Mar 16th, 2007 (3/16/2007 1:03pm) in reply to rrizgod

    you're getting over 2-1.

    laying down, you'd be left w/ 7 BB.

    are you winning 33% of the time?
  3. az1969 az1969 is offline

    Phoenix, AZ
    United States

    Posts: 3,569
    Joined: Sep 05

    Mar 16th, 2007 (3/16/2007 1:10pm) in reply to LDM

    Taking the other player out of the equation, you have about a 25% chance of hitting your A or 10. Now, the question is, what is he shoving with? More often than not, you whiff, so odds are in your favor he did no hit the flop. So, maybe he's shoving his two over cards. Maybe he has K Q, in which case you're the favorite, and a call is in order. Maybe he has A Q, in which case you have 3 outs (or about 12%). He may even have A rag, and again, you're ahead.

    So, you kind of pot committed yourself (I assume this is a SnG?), so tough call. Me, I probably call since I'm shoving pretty much any face card anyway.
  4. rrizgod rrizgod is offline

    Encinitas, CA
    United States

    Posts: 118
    Joined: Oct 06

    Mar 16th, 2007 (3/16/2007 1:22pm) in reply to az1969

    no

    $22 10k MTT on stars.
    Thread Starter
  5. lordxixor101 lordxixor101 is offline

    Westland, MI
    United States

    Posts: 6,364
    Joined: Mar 06

    Mar 16th, 2007 (3/16/2007 1:30pm) in reply to rrizgod

    Just wondering here, but A-10 isn't that great a hand, when you raise, you really don't mind the cards being folded to you.

    Your problem is, your c-bet pot commits you, yet calling here almost completely kills you off, and it's hard to imagine that your far ahead here.

    You may have to call here, but I think your issue was not pushing right away here. If your going to play it this agressively anyway, might as well push on the offset and have your fold equity.
  6. az1969 az1969 is offline

    Phoenix, AZ
    United States

    Posts: 3,569
    Joined: Sep 05

    Mar 16th, 2007 (3/16/2007 1:49pm) in reply to rrizgod

    nevermind
  7. rrizgod rrizgod is offline

    Encinitas, CA
    United States

    Posts: 118
    Joined: Oct 06

    Mar 16th, 2007 (3/16/2007 2:06pm) in reply to lordxixor101

    Heres the problem.

    I start the hand with about 15 BBs. Open shoving doesnt seem smart. So I make the standard raise.

    BB calls. He has about 13 BBs. If he had 1010+ or AQ+ wouldn't he just reraise all in preflop?

    So I think he could be on two big cards or a small PP. But if he had a small PP wouldnt he just shove on the flop?

    After the flop it gets checked to me. I'm just going to guess here and assume a continuation bet is going to work 50% of the time. Seems like I have to make that bet.
    Thread Starter
  8. Claw1980 Claw1980 is offline

    Elk Grove, CA
    United States

    Posts: 1,459
    Joined: Jul 05

    Mar 16th, 2007 (3/16/2007 3:03pm) in reply to rrizgod

    if you feel like you have to make a bet, i prefer a shove
     
  9. SICKTIGHT311 SICKTIGHT311 is offline

    Long Beach, CA
    United States

    Posts: 24,818
    Joined: Jul 06

    Mar 16th, 2007 (3/16/2007 3:21pm) in reply to az1969

    You can ALWAYS fold. It is one of the options you are given. Just put your mouse over the fold button and click!
  10. GO LET IT OUT GO LET IT OUT is offline

    Ithaca, NY
    United States

    Posts: 631
    Joined: Sep 06

    Mar 16th, 2007 (3/16/2007 3:33pm) in reply to SICKTIGHT311

    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
  11. dd dd is offline

    Monroe, LA
    United States

    Posts: 1,596
    Joined: Apr 05

    Mar 16th, 2007 (3/16/2007 3:40pm) in reply to SICKTIGHT311

    a FOLD button???

    what site is that?
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