[x]

Can I Fold??

Reply to Thread
Page 1 of 11
  1. AKJMoscow AKJMoscow is offline

    United Kingdom

    Posts: 4
    Joined: Dec 10

    Feb 21st, 2011 (2/21/2011 6:17pm)

    Down to last 19 in the $100r on Ongame, been playing pretty solid not done anything out of line tbh.

    http://www.holdemmanager.net
    NL Holdem $6,000(BB) Replayer Game#5120036368376

    mvmbf ($370,995)
    Kalace6 ($71,246)
    SkipperDawn ($107,888)
    Farley008 ($106,901)
    clarkwho ($129,912)
    SkEwElEd ($129,196)
    cardsablazin ($104,656)
    DoinGodsWork ($133,832)
    trinko90 ($300,261)
    Rickydodiroo ($186,032)

    mvmbf antes $600
    Kalace6 antes $600
    SkipperDawn antes $600
    Farley008 antes $600
    clarkwho antes $600
    SkEwElEd antes $600
    cardsablazin antes $600
    DoinGodsWork antes $600
    trinko90 antes $600
    Rickydodiroo antes $600
    mvmbf posts (SB) $3,000
    Kalace6 posts (BB) $6,000

    Dealt to SkEwElEd Qs Qh
    fold, fold,
    clarkwho raises to $15,000
    SkEwElEd raises to $36,400
    fold,
    DoinGodsWork raises to $133,232

    SkEwElEd: VPIP - 16%
    DoinGodsWork: VPIP - 11%

    Also would like to add that blinds are 15 min levels, so what would you do in this spot?
    712 
  2. happyking happyking is offline

    Minehead
    United Kingdom

    Posts: 69
    Joined: Sep 06

    Feb 21st, 2011 (2/21/2011 9:14pm) in reply to AKJMoscow

    has clarkwho folded? what sort of opening range can u give his 1st raise?
    i guess most of the time id call, in a last 19 dynamic ur looking to build build build and u can easily find em turning up with ak (and smaller pairs on a good day.)
    i would say this spot u will run into aces or kings a lot of the time though but if im honest it would take some very specific circumstances for me to give someone that much credit.
  3. tyson219 tyson219 is offline Moderator

    United States

    Posts: 2,684
    Joined: Feb 06

    Feb 21st, 2011 (2/21/2011 10:02pm) in reply to happyking

    I don't think VPIP is enough here. What about 3bet preflop? PFR? Fold to 3bet? What is your image at the table? How often have you been raising the past 2-3 orbits? How has the villain been playing last couple orbits?

    I assume clark folded. Based solely on a VPIP of 11%, I find it unlikely his cold 4bet range is worse than JJ+, AK. I would actually be surprised if it's not QQ+, AK. Although I can barely ever imagine folding QQ with 23bbs, I would fold here. It's a nasty fold though.
      1
  4. AKJMoscow AKJMoscow is offline

    United Kingdom

    Posts: 4
    Joined: Dec 10

    Feb 21st, 2011 (2/21/2011 11:02pm) in reply to tyson219

    Yeah sorry guys, Clark did fold.

    Like i said... id been solid not done anything out of line so my stats wernt sky high, super aggro or anything. When they guy 4bet shoves, and i check his HEM stats I am really hating life!! Most of his stats were very low around 10%.

    So taking all that in to account do you reckon i can find a fold there with around 16 bb's left at 15 min blind levels?

    I mean i suppoose it can swing either way, like maybe a bad fold in the long run but folding there vs a super tight player isnt that bad is it?
    712 
    Thread Starter
  5. tyson219 tyson219 is offline Moderator

    United States

    Posts: 2,684
    Joined: Feb 06

    Feb 22nd, 2011 (2/22/2011 3:03am) in reply to AKJMoscow

    100r's are out my bankroll, so I may not be the best person to comment. Given his stats, I can't imagine the villain showing up with less than QQ+, AK. I can't run the numbers now, but poker stove it and figure out the equity QQ has here. I would think either JJ+, AK or QQ+, AK are the villain's ranges.

    I'm also on the fence about 3betting with 22bbs. I'd probably rather jam in that situation.
      1
  6. DoinGodsWork DoinGodsWork is offline

    United Kingdom

    Posts: 1
    Joined: Feb 11

    Feb 22nd, 2011 (2/22/2011 4:43am) in reply to tyson219

    Well I was your opponent in the hand!
    To be honest I dont like your small re-raise there, you should just ship it all in.

    Honest truth, my range there was Kings and Aces. When there is a raise and re-raise from early position it is virtually never ever ever a bluff, you make a small re-raise from early position that screams aces with those stack sizes. When I obviously pushed allin in, i had a very horrible feeling that you had aces so was very pleasantly surprised to see queens call.

    I honestly dont understand your line here, you makes a re-raise that will only ever get action from a good player with aces or kings get re-raised allin and still call with queens. Just shove allin, if some one wakes it behind you with Kings or Aces thats just poker. You are giving away too much information by making that mini re-raise there. If you shove allin; AK will always calls, Jacks probably, tens maybe and thats just from the good players. It would be better making that re-raise with complete air, but that would still be a bit spewy as there too many people still to act and obviously there are better spots to steal.
  7. AKJMoscow AKJMoscow is offline

    United Kingdom

    Posts: 4
    Joined: Dec 10

    Feb 22nd, 2011 (2/22/2011 8:37am) in reply to DoinGodsWork

    Yeah prob shoulda shipped pre, I 3 bet there because I want clark to reshove over me ofc or any aggro player to make a move... it is not always AA,KK in that spot at all. I felt like I had an edge on most players reamining in the field so i guess i should fold especially when your only playing 11% of your hands and most your stats are around 10%.

    I suppose either way its a cooler/standard

    GL dude.
    712 
    Thread Starter
  8. tyson219 tyson219 is offline Moderator

    United States

    Posts: 2,684
    Joined: Feb 06

    Feb 22nd, 2011 (2/22/2011 8:26pm) in reply to AKJMoscow

     
    Originally Posted by AKJMoscow View Post

    I 3 bet there because I want clark to reshove over me ofc or any aggro player to make a move... it is not always AA,KK in that spot at all.

    Personally, I think you increase the calling range if you ship pre. The way you played it reads QQ+, AK looking for more action. Ship pre and it could look like a weak-hand isolating or a strong hand jamming it in. If I'm the villain, I think 88+, AQ+ if you ship pre vs. QQ+, AK with the small 3bet that effectively commits you to the pot.

    At the end of the day though, this was just a cooler. Unlucky man.

    Edit: if you want action from an aggro player behind you (and you think you'll get it), flat pre and hope for a squeeze.
    Edited By: tyson219 Feb 22nd, 2011 at 08:28 PM
      1
  9. NarcoCop NarcoCop is offline

    Chicago, IL
    United States

    Posts: 652
    Joined: Apr 09

    Feb 22nd, 2011 (2/22/2011 11:11pm) in reply to tyson219

    Sir its a cooler. Ship instead ok 3bet pre. There is no way in hell u fold here
     
  10. mdschluter mdschluter is offline

    United States

    Posts: 121
    Joined: Dec 10

    Feb 25th, 2011 (2/25/2011 3:55pm) in reply to NarcoCop

    im calling forsure. you have the 3rd best hand preflop in NLH. he can easily have jj 1010 ak here. i think you have to play it. JJ- i would def consider folding but QQ no
  11. grapsfan grapsfan is offline Head Curmudgeon

    Rosemount, MN
    United States

    Posts: 7,979
    Joined: Jun 05

    Feb 26th, 2011 (2/26/2011 3:30am) in reply to mdschluter

     
    Originally Posted by mdschluter View Post

    im calling forsure. you have the 3rd best hand preflop in NLH. he can easily have jj 1010 ak here. i think you have to play it. JJ- i would def consider folding but QQ no

    TT and JJ are in his cold 4-bet range in a 100r, when it's not clear that there's any fold equity in the shove (OP is getting about 2:1 on his call)?

    Not so sure I agree with that.
  12. rayfox111 rayfox111 is offline

    United Kingdom

    Posts: 834
    Joined: Mar 09

    Feb 26th, 2011 (2/26/2011 12:11pm) in reply to grapsfan

    Hes not under pressure to shove his stack, and with his stats you have to be thinking JJ+AK.
    Your a 40% dog to this range but stand to win slightly more than that, so your getting the right odds to call.
    My first immpression reading the hand was he has a monster, its one of those, that the math is saying call, but your head/gut is telling you its a bad call.
    Extreamly difficult spot at that stage of the tourney and its 50/50, think its better to go with the gut in spots like these & quietly fold it.
    First impressions are usually correct.
  13. mdschluter mdschluter is offline

    United States

    Posts: 121
    Joined: Dec 10

    Feb 26th, 2011 (2/26/2011 3:24pm) in reply to grapsfan

     
    Originally Posted by grapsfan View Post

    TT and JJ are in his cold 4-bet range in a 100r, when it's not clear that there's any fold equity in the shove (OP is getting about 2:1 on his call)?

    Not so sure I agree with that.

    This is a 100 rebuy and we all know how much more 3 betting and 4 betting there is than a lower buyin tourney. Especially, if these guys know each other which often times they do. If we say they dont know each other and they have been playing fairly tight, then yes, u might want to lay it down.

    But, i dont think pushin QQ here is bad either way. Doingodsswork is making a large raise which usually means 1010, JJ, QQ, or AK-my guess in this hand is AK and i would push it with QQ. IF he is making this play with KK or AA, then it is a cooler.

    i think most people would gamble their QQ here. If ur "good enough" to fold this, then cheers!
  14. grapsfan grapsfan is offline Head Curmudgeon

    Rosemount, MN
    United States

    Posts: 7,979
    Joined: Jun 05

    Feb 26th, 2011 (2/26/2011 4:09pm) in reply to mdschluter

    [QUOTE=mdschluter;6124749]This is a 100 rebuy and we all know how much more 3 betting and 4 betting there is than a lower buyin tourney. Especially, if these guys know each other which often times they do. If we say they dont know each other and they have been playing fairly tight, then yes, u might want to lay it down. QUOTE]

    True...there is also a lot more 3- and 4-betting in higher stakes tournaments. It's also far more likely to be within the context of people understanding stack sizes and pot odds.

    In general, bluffing into someone getting 2:1 on their money or better is super-spewy because of how attractive the price to call is. In a 100r, everyone at the table is more likely to know this, and therefore avoid those spots to bet light.
  15. mdschluter mdschluter is offline

    United States

    Posts: 121
    Joined: Dec 10

    Feb 26th, 2011 (2/26/2011 4:30pm) in reply to grapsfan

    he's not bluffing- 1010+ and AK aren't bluffs. IMO, KK+ is not his range
  16. tyson219 tyson219 is offline Moderator

    United States

    Posts: 2,684
    Joined: Feb 06

    Feb 26th, 2011 (2/26/2011 9:36pm) in reply to mdschluter

     
    Originally Posted by mdschluter View Post

    he's not bluffing- 1010+ and AK aren't bluffs. IMO, KK+ is not his range

    Well, the villain posted his range was KK+, so I'm going to take his word for it.

    Even without that information, this is a cold 4-bet from a playing that has played only 11% of hands. I can't see a player like that making this play with TT or even JJ. It's a rare situation where you almost have to make the sick fold and muck QQ pre.
      1
Reply to Thread
Page 1 of 11