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Can I fold this?? Late in $16/18pl s&g

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  1. GLMM GLMM is offline

    Whitman, MA
    United States

    Posts: 1,240
    Joined: May 06

    Aug 31st, 2008 (8/31/2008 11:54pm)

    Ended up bubbling.

    Not being results oriented.Does anybody fold here?Why or why not.

    Thanks!

    pokerstars Game #20055190364: Tournament #105522236, $15+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2008/08/31 - 23:48:38 (ET)
    Table '105522236 1' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
    Seat 3: mbendner (2175 in chips)
    Seat 4: Yogi (1800 in chips)
    Seat 5: redjimboh (10555 in chips)
    Seat 6: Corey356 (2935 in chips)
    Seat 8: danius111 (7925 in chips)
    Seat 9: slothwear (1610 in chips)
    mbendner: posts the ante 25
    Yogi: posts the ante 25
    redjimboh: posts the ante 25
    Corey356: posts the ante 25
    danius111: posts the ante 25
    slothwear: posts the ante 25
    Corey356: posts small blind 200
    danius111: posts big blind 400
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to Corey356 [Kd Ac]
    slothwear: raises 1185 to 1585 and is all-in
    mbendner: raises 565 to 2150 and is all-in
    Yogi: folds
    redjimboh: folds
    Corey356: calls 1950
    danius111: folds
    *** FLOP *** [6s 6d 4h]
    *** TURN *** [6s 6d 4h] [2h]
    *** RIVER *** [6s 6d 4h 2h] [Qs]
    *** SHOW DOWN ***
    Corey356: shows [Kd Ac] (a pair of Sixes)
    mbendner: shows [Jd Jc] (two pair, Jacks and Sixes)
    mbendner collected 1130 from side pot
    slothwear: shows [Ts Td] (two pair, Tens and Sixes)
    mbendner collected 5305 from main pot
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 6435 Main pot 5305. Side pot 1130. | Rake 0
    Board [6s 6d 4h 2h Qs]
    Seat 3: mbendner showed [Jd Jc] and won (6435) with two pair, Jacks and Sixes
    Seat 4: Yogi folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 5: redjimboh (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 6: Corey356 (small blind) showed [Kd Ac] and lost with a pair of Sixes
    Seat 8: danius111 (big blind) folded before Flop
    Seat 9: slothwear showed [Ts Td] and lost with two pair, Tens and Six
  2. sct123 sct123 is offline

    Fairfield, CT
    United States

    Posts: 538
    Joined: Dec 07

    Sep 1st, 2008 (9/1/2008 8:43am) in reply to GLMM

    Pretty standard situation. Im always getting it in here especially near the bubble.
  3. MYBLUEDOG MYBLUEDOG is online now

    Greenville, MS
    United States

    Posts: 1,998
    Joined: May 07

    Sep 1st, 2008 (9/1/2008 3:13pm) in reply to GLMM

    I look at it this way:

    (a) Knowing that the first all-in is probably pushing A,x + and any [pp] and maybe any 2 face cards since he's on a desparation stack.

    (b) It's more likely the isolation raiser is much tighter: JJ+, & AK,AQs at worse

    My analysis would be leaning to a fold because:

    (1) I have no fold equity,

    (2) some of my outs may be gone (AJ+) or I may be drawing for a tie (another AK),

    (3) It's more likely I'm at best flipping against a [pp] and another [AX] hand maybe 2nd [pp].

    (4) If I'm against two [pp] there is now a 23.75% chance someone will make a set.
    I fold and look for a better situation. Against a likely range of the two players, you are a 63.5:36.5 dog in this hand vs the remaining field.

    Hold'em Simulation
    <span>600,000 trials (Randomized)</span>
    <table border="1" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><th>Hand</th><th>Pot equity</th><th>Wins</th><th>Ties</th></tr><tr><td>A*,KK-22,KQ-JT</td><td>27.19%</td><td>154,085</td><td>21,880</td></tr><tr><td>AA-JJ,AK-AJ</td><td>36.32%</td><td>185,113</td><td>69,365</td></tr><tr><td>AcKd</td><td>36.49%</td><td>182,876</td><td>75,820
    </td></tr></tbody></table>
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