There are a couple ways I would play this. I would std raise and hope he shoves. You are well ahead of his range 99.99% of the time. However, if you std raise and he calls nd the flop comes AKx or something asscoiated to that, you are in a sick sick spot. i hate these kind of situations

how are you going to fold to a shove when u have 16 or so blinds??? b vs b i high five the screen when he shoves

with the button about to be all in next hand with any 2, is it not more profitable to avoid an all in situation against a big stack where your not guaranteed to win. If you raise fold, then surely 99% of the time your guaranteed to make the money?

Because the 3rd player has ONE BIG BLIND and will be blinded in next hand. Without looking at the exact ICM numbers I would think that raising and calling a shove here with less than 90% win vs. his range (which JJ is not) is a mistake.

would help if i knew what icm meant? :-( idk if he is playing to cash or to win? i suck at responses on forums. sigh

I think all in shove is your best play. If you are playing a decent player in the bb if you standard raise he should be shoving ATC. So I think raising w/ the intention of folding is very weak b/c you should have to fold every single time against a good player. I'm not a fan of open folding either - though i think it is better than raise/fold (unless you know the bb doesn't understand poker very well and will fold to most of your raises)....so I think open shoving is best against a good player -which I hate to do anyway... It is really a sick spot.

can anyone justify just flat calling in this situation?

"but i think if you understand the ICM model you have to avoid getting your chips in here when someone only has 1 big blind "

I completely agree. But, if the bb also understands this, then he his shoving you everytime and you are just handing away 2.5-4 bb's depending on your opening style.

Perhaps open shove isn't optimal. It clearly depends on your opponent in the bb, but limp/shove may prove to be your best play. If you limp and bb shoves, just fold. If you limp and he checks play for value and pot control. If you limp and he raises 2.5-4x shove w/ a lot of fold equity.

You aren't guaranteed anything here... just because the short stack has 1 BB doesnt mean you are going to make the money.

From an ICM perspective..

<table class="simple" cellspacing="2" cellpadding="3"><tr><th>Player</th><th>Stack</th><th>Push%</th><th>EQPre</th><th>EQPost</th><th>EQDiff</th></tr><tr><td>BU</td><td>400.0</td><td>68.6%</td><td>0.0305</td><td>0.0371</td><td>0.00657</td></tr><tr><td>SB</td><td>7000.0</td><td>11.0%</td><td>0.4508</td><td>0.4452</td><td>-0.00566</td></tr><tr><td>BB</td><td>10600.0</td><td><td>0.5186</td><td>0.5177</td><td>-9.2E-4</td></tr></table>

<table class="simple" cellspacing="2" cellpadding="3"><tr><th>PU</th><th>CA</th><th>OC</th><th>Range</th></tr><tr><td>BU</td><td><td><td>68.6%, 22+ Qx+ J2s+ J3o+ T2s+ T6o+ 94s+ 96o+ 85s+ 87o 75s+ 65s </td></tr><tr><td><td>SB</td><td><td>19.8%, 44+ A3s+ A8o+ K8s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QJo </td></tr><tr><td><td><td>BB</td><td>9.2%, 66+ A9s+ ATo+ </td></tr><tr><td><td>BB</td><td><td>100.0%, Any two</td></tr><tr><td>SB</td><td><td><td>11.0%, 44+ A9s+ AJo+ KTs+ QTs+ JTs </td></tr><tr><td><td>BB</td><td><td>4.2%, 99+ AQs+ AKo </td></tr></table>

So this is undoubtedly a push. I prefer the open shove here from the SB, because if this guy has any idea what hes doing hes going to shove on your standard raise 99% of the time. And if you can, you would like to avoid a showdown here whether you have the best hand or not.

Bottom line is, easy open-shove, just pray he doesnt wake up with something huge.

The odds of you shoving JJ here and getting called by QQ, KK or AA is roughly 1.47%. The odds of your opponent making a comeback here to make the money is DEFINITELY above 1.47%, probably in the range of 8-10%. Trust me, I play hundreds of these a week, I see it everyday someone come back from 1 BB to win the whole thing... its just the nature of turbos. You need to learn to get over the fear of missing the money and making +EV moves whether they are comfy or not... its the only way you willl become a winning player.

 

Originally Posted by jeremy w

The odds of you shoving JJ here and getting called by QQ, KK or AA is roughly 1.47%. The odds of your opponent making a comeback here to make the money is DEFINITELY above 1.47%, probably in the range of 8-10%. Trust me, I play hundreds of these a week, I see it everyday someone come back from 1 BB to win the whole thing... its just the nature of turbos. You need to learn to get over the fear of missing the money and making +EV moves whether they are comfy or not... its the only way you willl become a winning player.

your not factoring in hands your racing against and when did i ever say this tournament was turbo?!?!?!?!?!?

you're not looking to steal the blind, you're looking to double up. Raising and folding to a shove is the most disgusting option here. I shove your 3x raise allday long then procede to grind you down to nothing trying to wait out mr 400 chips while giving him courtesy double ups to preserve the bubble. I win this thing 75% of the time here with the 10.6k stack against you, such weak play. I'm not concerned about third here, I'm glad to get it in and have a huge shot at the win. Someone mentioned 77% fav over ATC, I gladly take 77% and risk 1 buyin to gain an extra two by winning vs second. advanced search me on full tilt in the 6 mans, can you really argue with my results in them?

Lol u fool I'm not trying to brag, I'm simply reaffirming my case with extremely solid results. Maybe the guy who crushes these games actually knows what he's talking about, moreso then a straightup mathematical approach, just maybe...

Yeah ur probably right, I guess I managed to ride a heater for several thousand games, build a br from nothing, and luckbox my way to thousands of dollars. Weeeeeee I must run GOOD. And i guess you somehow just run REAL bad huh to not have better results? Weird how that works... The ppl who seem to have all the answers dont have the results. Maybe that should be a pretty alarming thought for you...

^^^ all perfect examples of why simple mathematical models cant make you a winning player, nobody here has any results to speak of yet insist they know the answers to everyhting. ICM models assume your opponent plays perfectly according to ICM which we know just isn't the case. There is certain things you can only pick up through experience, and until you get out of this mindset and actually utilize the proven advice infront of you everyday, have fun grinding out that 0-1% ROI