SHNL $100 Max Cash game hand: http://www.pokerhand.org/?6429040
I have 3.1K hands with Villain. Villain raises first in with 45% of hands from the button. His fold to 3bet IP is only 50%, but his fold to Cbet in 3bet pots is 57%. Villain's fold to Cbet on Turn is a surprising 13% out of 23 samples. Villain's Bet River is 35% (note, this is not river Cbet, this is just river bet. An average Bet River for this site is probably around 28 or 29%. So Villain clearly Bets Rivers more than average.
The difficult part about this hand is the river, where I don't hit my Overcard or my flush, but I do hit the a.s.s. end of the 4 card straight. A Ten is deffinietly in my oppoent's hand range since he opens with such a wide range from the button and calls a lot of 3bets IP. But my opponent's Bet River is about 6 or 7% higher than average and I'm getting 2:1 pot odds with the best bluff catcher possible (bottom straight). Also, the line I took, 3bet, Cbet flop, Cbet turn, Check river, really looks weak and his all in could be a missed draw or a pair turned into a bluff.
Opinions please! Is the River call good or bad here? Thanks ahead of time!
Meh. Awkward spot. There's no missed straight draws since everything hit, so he either missed with hearts or has it. I think a lot of 1pr/2pr hands check back since they think they're good. I guess the occasional 1 pr hand could turn his hand into a bluff. He needs to have missed and bluffed the the draw about 1/3 of the time for you call here. I don't hate the call, but I think I prefer shoving the river.
You can rep missed draws and still get value from 2pr type hands. And if you're calling off anyway, I think shoving is probably better since you get value from worse hands as opposed to just bluff catching, unless you think your opponent will be bluffing a very high % of the time.
That said, cash isn't my specialty and playing 100bb pots on the river isn't my strength.12
I think I prefer shoving the river. You can rep missed draws and still get value from 2pr type hands. And if you're calling off anyway, I think shoving is probably better since you get value from worse hands as opposed to just bluff catching, unless you think your opponent will be bluffing a very high % of the time.
Really good point, I didn't think about that. Rather than checking and hoping to check it down or get a worse hand to bet, just shove and hope to get value from two pair or a set that can't fold.... Not a bad option. I guess by checking the river in that spot I'm letting a Ten value bet me and two pair or a set get off easy...
Also, what do you think about his Fold to Turn Cbet being soooo ridiculously low, does that merit a check/call on the turn rather than a bet since I know he's going to call?? I thought about this in the heat of the moment, but I kept thinking "I have a draw I must bet to get any possible fold equity... even if it's like 13%..."