I never play cash games, sat down with $40 won a few hug pots, Sitting with $137 and get dealt AA , Someone please tell me this is an obvious fold , I'm drawing way to thin,could be dead in the water by QQ JJ So draw heavy even if I'm ahead ,and Villian is shoving Straight and flush draws,Being pokerstars and how much I've been sodomized over the years, He's probably gonna get there, My gut really tells me he hit a set and shoves to push me of those draws.

Input please, Reg cash player would be nice

Thanks

PokerStars Hand #73668858990: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50 USD) - 2012/01/11 11:48:22 ET
Table 'Tithonus VII' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: jesus_hp ($52.50 in chips)
Seat 2: tatiana_an ($20.75 in chips)
Seat 4: Fan-buddist ($27.70 in chips)
Seat 5: wymanlai ($44.25 in chips)
Seat 6: notlostyet ($21.50 in chips)
Seat 7: Zafod_Pospi ($51.05 in chips)
Seat 8: TimmyReichel ($50 in chips)
Seat 9: nicelybaked ($137.30 in chips)
jesus_hp: posts small blind $0.25
tatiana_an: posts big blind $0.50
taffy_jones: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to nicelybaked [As Ad]
Fan-buddist: raises $1 to $1.50
wymanlai: folds
notlostyet: folds
Zafod_Pospi: calls $1.50
TimmyReichel: folds
nicelybaked: raises $4.75 to $6.25
jesus_hp: folds
tatiana_an: folds
Fan-buddist: folds
Zafod_Pospi: calls $4.75
*** FLOP *** [Qs 8c Jc]
Zafod_Pospi: checks
nicelybaked: bets $12.75
Zafod_Pospi: raises $32.05 to $44.80 and is all-in
nicelybaked said, "SO GROSS"
nicelybaked has timed out
nicelybaked: folds
Uncalled bet ($32.05) returned to Zafod_Pospi
Zafod_Pospi collected $38.30 from pot
Zafod_Pospi: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $40.25 | Rake $1.95
Board [Qs 8c Jc]
Seat 1: jesus_hp (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: tatiana_an (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: Fan-buddist folded before Flop
Seat 5: wymanlai folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: notlostyet folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Zafod_Pospi collected ($38.30)
Seat 8: TimmyReichel folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: nicelybaked (button) folded on the Flop

ok well I'm no nit but please call here... maybe if he had $100 more and was super nitty you could consider folding... maybe

Agree that you're def not deep enough to fold here. This could be aq or any type of flush/combo draws. KK probably plays the same way. Real hard time finding the fold button in this spot.

 

Originally Posted by Demitrius100

this is never ever a fold with his or your stack. ever. every time someone raises you he could have a set. you just can't think like that.

Agree with this. Also, the fact that you don't hold the Ac also opens up his range a little more to hands you want to see.

snap call imo he could have any draw even kq muck like that ak perhaps lots of hands u beat

yup, call, sometimes you have stop putting players on monster hands and instead think what does he think i have and therefore why did he bet like that.....in this case he could be putting you on ak and just trying to protect his top pair, i know AA and KK get cracked heaps but this type of board is where you want to shove or call a shove isn't it?

maybe im just a gambler but i'd be getting it allin 10 outa 10 times here

 

Originally Posted by nicelybaked

Think I would have rathered called and lost ,then not knowing what would have happened,

Cheers

That is not profitable thinking!

i dont fold here to much AQ,KQ typ of hands he might play this way, and obv tons of Sd and FD out there so if u cbet its a clear call for me

Just thought I'd add my 2cents in as why most people would properly insta-call here. First lets establish what your calling price is. With $72.30 in the pot, and your calling price is $32.05, your getting +225 on your money, therefore, you only need to win over 30.8% of the time for this call to be correct. We've already established that KK AQ and draws are all possible hands he could have in addition to the sets you are concerned about. You could even add QJ and 9-10 if he's a looser caller to possibilities. Regardless, he is not ahead 100% of the time, so lets say you're 75% sure he has a set. If that's the case, it's still math proper to make the call. Why? Because if your putting him at 75% to have a set, he still has 2 cards to dodge. Let's say you put him on a set of Jacks, that means there are 990 2 card combinations in the deck. How many of those will propel you to win? You have both aces along with every card except the jacks, which is 89. Then there are 16 K-10 combinations that you also win with, as well as 3 QQ. There are also 16 9-10 combinations that will make the hand a push ( for simplicity, let's just take those away from the hand pool even though there is some other money in there that you both pick up with 9-10).

So he has 866 of 974 ( 89%) combinations that win if he has a set of jacks. So lets figure the true odds.

.75 that he has a set X .89 of the set holding = .667 So if you are 75% sure he has a set, you're still 33.25% to win, which is +EV since your getting +225 on the call.

Simplified version : Call the $32 you cheapo, making this call in this spot at this price/odds 1,000 times will never be a losing play. You have to have a little gamble in you to play winning poker, that's just a fact of the game. The winning players just make sure the price is reasonable.