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Is this an obvious checking situation, an obvious betting situation or neither?
Full Tilt Poker Game #1205260015: Table Lake Mead - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 17:31:08 ET - 2006/11/06
Seat 1: Spimfter ($236.80)
<span>Seat 2: Chi-Devil ($367.40)</span>
Seat 3: scooter2003 ($198)
Seat 4: sk1hr345 ($189)
Seat 5: SometimesNJ ($114.20)
<span>Seat 6: gtpoker828 ($181)</span>
Seat 7: Fishy Bait ($185.30)
Seat 8: Brad_TheMan ($203.45)
Seat 9: FingerFox ($340)
Fishy Bait posts the small blind of $1
Brad_TheMan posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
<span>Dealt to gtpoker828 [7s As]</span>
FingerFox calls $2
Spimfter folds
Chi-Devil calls $2
scooter2003 folds
sk1hr345 raises to $8
SometimesNJ folds
gtpoker828 calls $8
Fishy Bait folds
Brad_TheMan folds
FingerFox calls $6
Chi-Devil calls $6
<span>*** FLOP *** [Kd 7d Ah]</span>
FingerFox checks
Chi-Devil checks
sk1hr345 checks
<span>gtpoker828 bets $20</span>
FingerFox folds
FingerFox stands up
<span>Chi-Devil calls $20</span>
sk1hr345 folds
*** TURN *** [Kd 7d Ah] [8h]
Chi-Devil checks
dachamp31 adds $80
<span>gtpoker828 bets $80</span>
<span>Chi-Devil calls $80</span>
<span>*** RIVER *** [Kd 7d Ah 8h] [2s]</span>
Chi-Devil checks
gtpoker828 checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
gtpoker828 shows [7s As] (two pair, Aces and Sevens)
Chi-Devil mucks
gtpoker828 wins the pot ($232) with two pair, Aces and Sevens
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $235 | Rake $3
Board: [Kd 7d Ah 8h 2s]
Seat 1: Spimfter didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: Chi-Devil mucked [Ad Jh] - a pair of Aces
Seat 3: scooter2003 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: sk1hr345 folded on the Flop
Seat 5: SometimesNJ didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: gtpoker828 (button) showed [7s As] and won ($232) with two pair, Aces and Sevens
Seat 7: Fishy Bait (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 8: Brad_TheMan (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 9: FingerFox folded on the Flop
After flat-call flat-call... I almost had to put Chi on a diamond draw. I figured the only way I was getting called was if I was beat. I'm looking for insight on the river round in particular. I feel like I played the rest of the hand well.
~gtpoker -
omfg value bet that pls, not even close
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Obvious folding situation. Oh, you aren't talking about preflop...
In my mind, it's a value bet situation. Here's what beats you, that he might actually have: A8, 77. Both of those would have almost certainly raised you by the river with the double flush draw out there.
AK would have PROBABLY reraised pre, same with AA or KK. I bet about half of the pot and hope that a single ace calls, or someone who was chasing a flush draw and hit a lower two pair or something -
Value bet please! A few things, one is many many people will call you with worse hands here that dont even include an ace, two is most sets are going to try and get their money in on the turn on a very dangerous board like that, in fact many are going to raise you on the flop if they think you have an ace, and three, if this person really does have a-k, they are reraising you sooner than later because of the diamonds. and lastly, i suck so just forget i said all of that :)
-chicoflash -
It's really read dependant. But I'd be with you. After flat-call twice, I'd have to think he had a set here or missed the diamond draw. But some people are bad enough to call you all the way down with A-x.
Ask the harrington questions "Will a hand thats beating me lay down if I bet?" and "Will a hand that I'm beating call my bet?" If there are more hands likely that you're beating vs more hands that are beating you, you should tend to bet. -
hah... I understand the preflop call was loose to say the least... but I'll ignore that for now.
I guess I just wasn't sure how likely it was for a single ace to call me on the river.
Thanks for the advice
~gtpoker -
I'm not sure i agree with you that he might have a set. It's possible, of course, but I don't think it's likely. Flat calling the flop that has a flush draw in a seven-way pot? Or flat calling a turn with a double flush draw in a four-way pot (Both times to end the action and move to the next street....so no chance that he wants someone to raise).
I think the number of times someone will call you with AQ, AJ, TT outweighs the number of times someone has 77 (the other possible pairs that make a set are folding the flop, and AA and KK are certainly reraising pre) -
Since you are in position I think its an obvious value betting situation. Depending on your read on the hand should come into affect at the river since he checked it to you on flop/turn and river. If you put him on a busted flush draw, you'll need to make him come over the top of you to gain anymore value (which is easier said than done). If you've been playing with him awhile and have a solid read, maybe another bet of $80 or even a little less may get him to sense weakness and try to c/r the river, but not very likely at this level. What I would do here is value bet and hope he had a hand like he did (AJ) or maybe even throw out a large pot size bet and make it look like a bluff (like you missed a big draw like Qd Jd) and maybe get a larger calling range from guys holding weaker aces or maybe even a king looking to make a great call. Either way I think you def missed a bet on river.
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Fold preflop, your just going get yourself in trouble more often than not. Thorladen analysis is best I think. Its hard to tell at that level where people are alot of the time cause they flat call so much more often than higher stakes, but I gotta think your ahead the majority of the time here, bet bet bet
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