So I've been doing some of my own calculations to analyze many of the decisions I make at the table, obv all in an effort to improve my game. Below is a common scenario in MTT poker, and I have a few questions about it:

Blinds:
400/800 w a 100 ante. There is 2100 in the pot to start.

Setup (9-handed and you are at least 10 or so orbits away from the bubble):
You are in the bb with 20,800 (26bbs) after posting your ante and bb. Everyone folds to the cut-off who holds a 27k stack; he then opens for 2000. You see on your tracker that he has been open raising over 30% of his hands, and you have noticed his laggy play at the table. The action folds to you in the bb and you hold T9s. You decide to give him the pile on a re-steal.

You estimate his opening range to be 44+,A2s+,K5s+,Q7s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A5o+,K9o+,Q9o+,J9 o+,T9o (31.5% of all hands). You think that if you re-steal, you will get him to fold out everything in his range except for 77+,A8s+,KJs+,ATo+,KQo (10.6% of all hands, and 34.77% of his original opening range).

Running it through pokerstove, you see that T9s has 35.48% equity vs. his estimated calling range. Now we want to find out the cEV of this play.

Calculation:
cEV = .6523(4,100) + .3477[(.3548(22,900)) + (.6452(-20,800))]
cEV = (2,674.43) + (-1,841.15)
cEV = 833.28

This means that this play, over the long run, will show an average profit of 833 chips. Also, it means that I will be eliminated from the tournament 22.43% of the time (.2243 = .3477(.6452)) that I make this play in this exact spot with these exact ranges.

Questions:
1. Are my calculations correct?
2. If so, this represents a little over 1bb in cEV....is this a high enough edge to make this play?
3. In terms of bbs, how much cEV would you typically want/need in order to happily make a certain play?

p.s. I understand there are different lines to take in the above situation that may show a higher cEV, depending on your and your opponent's post-flop skills. For now, I'm just interested in this specific play.

 

Originally Posted by Justin Tobin;6042080
Questions:[/U

1. Are my calculations correct?
2. If so, this represents a little over 1bb in cEV....is this a high enough edge to make this play?
3. In terms of bbs, how much cEV would you typically want/need in order to happily make a certain play?

p.s. I understand there are different lines to take in the above situation that may show a higher cEV, depending on your and your opponent's post-flop skills. For now, I'm just interested in this specific play.

1) Looks like you got the math right.

2) All depends on how accurate you are being in your ranging. If you built in a margin of error already into your ranges that he is calling/folding with then anything over 1 chip +EV makes it enough edge. If you were 100% precise about his ranges then it's an interesting question to debate as to whether it's to close for one's individual tastes or not. Personally, I'd take it. Not just for the cEV but to let someone know they are getting played back at and aren't going to run me over.


3) Never thought o fit in BB before. I tend to work it out differently... and that is to ask how often he has to fold before it's +EV. Much easier to fin d your comfort level IMO. Just re-arrange the math and solve for % of folds needed, and then addin your safety factor (say you need 30% folds, but like 5% extra so you look for the 35% spot.

Look up Jennifear's 10,000th post on here. She does an explanation of how to use an online tool to exactly do this for you in the way I just described. (SHould be called Fold equity calculator or something like that)

Ask yourself... what would 150bucks do?

And don't think so much...

1) save urself some trouble and use sheet's reshove spreadsheet on PXF (become a member if ur not) it does all this work for u
2) that calling range is a bit wide for calling a 26bb reshove
3) yes 1bb in profit is a good enough amount... technically if u can prove it with absolute certainty .1bb would be enough to make a spot a shove. The problem is theres so many variables so you gotta play it safe but ya 1bb is way plenty longrun

 

Originally Posted by FuglyNutz

Ask yourself... what would 150bucks do?

And don't think so much...

Agree.

 

Originally Posted by Justin Tobin

Thank you for the reassurance phatcat. For the incorrect number, I think you may have just read through it real fast bc I'm pretty sure it's right.

If 23,700 is correct tho, could you please explain?

if you have 20,800 affter posting, you stand to win 20,800+800 from opener + 800(bb) + 400(sb) + 900(antes) = 23,700.

 

Originally Posted by phatcat

if you have 20,800 affter posting, you stand to win 20,800+800 from opener + 800(bb) + 400(sb) + 900(antes) = 23,700.

Still not sure where that extra 800 is coming from. The opener raises to 2,000 bringing the pot to 4,100 total. I then shove in 20,800, which is another 18,800 for opener to call. When he calls, I stand to gain 18,800 + 4,100 = 22,900. There were no limpers, and the villain started in the cut-off.

What am I missing, where is that extra 800 chips coming from?

EDIT: OK, the light just went on. The villain also has to call the 800 bb I have out there bc it was a part of my stack b4 the hand started. So it is actually 19,600 for villain to call when it gets back to him, got it. Thanks again!