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Charged in like a wounded Bull...

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  1. ozibloke ozibloke is offline

    Melbourne
    Australia

    Posts: 133
    Joined: Aug 06

    Nov 4th, 2008 (11/4/2008 4:15am)

    And as usual I am out of the tourney.

    I am not disappointed in the after flop call. At that point I had 4 cards to the nut flush and a backdoor straight draw plus an over card so I had a lot of outs (I calculate 9 spades including the King, 3 Aces and the other King of clubs)

    It was the SB pre-flop raise that in hindsight was stoopid - what did I think I was beating ? On the one hand I wouldnt have got to this point without being aggressive, on the other hand, I think I have to get this recklessness out of my game if I am ever gonna make big scores...

    Your thoughts are invited

    pokerstars Game #21746821098: Tournament #117602238, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (600/1200) - 2008/11/04 2:42:04 ET
    Table '117602238 105' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
    Seat 2: SharkSca (104842 in chips)
    Seat 3: Daniela 9 (86342 in chips)
    Seat 4: XXOziblokeXX (43456 in chips)
    Seat 5: j_coakley30 (20302 in chips)
    Seat 6: Nicklebone (16233 in chips)
    SharkSca: posts the ante 125
    Daniela 9: posts the ante 125
    XXOziblokeXX: posts the ante 125
    j_coakley30: posts the ante 125
    Nicklebone: posts the ante 125
    XXOziblokeXX: posts small blind 600
    j_coakley30: posts big blind 1200
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to XXOziblokeXX [Qc As]
    Nicklebone: folds
    SharkSca: calls 1200
    Daniela 9: raises 12000 to 13200
    XXOziblokeXX: raises 12000 to 25200
    j_coakley30: folds
    SharkSca: folds
    Daniela 9: calls 12000
    *** FLOP *** [Ts 9s 7s]
    XXOziblokeXX: checks
    Daniela 9: bets 27600
    XXOziblokeXX: calls 18131 and is all-in
    Uncalled bet (9469) returned to Daniela 9
    *** TURN *** [Ts 9s 7s] [Jd]
    *** RIVER *** [Ts 9s 7s Jd] [5c]
    *** SHOW DOWN ***
    XXOziblokeXX: shows [Qc As] (high card Ace)
    Daniela 9: shows [Kd Kh] (a pair of Kings)
    Daniela 9 collected 89687 from pot
    YankeeFanPA is connected
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 89687 | Rake 0
    Board [Ts 9s 7s Jd 5c]
    Seat 2: SharkSca folded before Flop
    Seat 3: Daniela 9 (button) showed [Kd Kh] and won (89687) with a pair of Kings
    Seat 4: XXOziblokeXX (small blind) showed [Qc As] and lost with high card Ace
    Seat 5: j_coakley30 (big blind) folded before Flop
    Seat 6: Nicklebone folded before Flop (didn't bet)
  2. MYBLUEDOG MYBLUEDOG is online now

    Greenville, MS
    United States

    Posts: 1,998
    Joined: May 07

    Nov 4th, 2008 (11/4/2008 6:48am) in reply to ozibloke

    'AQ' is the death nell to many a player getting involved pre-flop. You virtually pot commit (it's over 1/2 your stack) with your 3bet mini-raise from the sb.

    His raise cost you 27% of your stack to call and the mini-raise is wasted action if you're going with the hand (it should be all-in). The raise size indicates Daniela is not folding to a short stack (or shouldn't be folding). The pot offers her the price to call off your stack push. You have no fold equity in this situation.

    I think you were at a push -fold point. I favor folding the 'AQ' in this situation.

    The pot to you is {5*125+1200+600+1200+13200} = 16825.

    Your call makes it {16825+11600} = 28425.

    When (or if) you push the pot goes to {16825+42731}= 59,556.

    This offers Daniela 59556:31131 (1.91:1 pot odds). Any reasonable 2bet hand has to call your push here. Daniela only needs a 34.3% hand to make the call profitable and she can't go broke against your stack (she'll still have 30+bb).

    PokerStove indicates a random has has the equity to call your push.

    Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

    33,561,158,400 games 0.009 secs 3,729,017,599,999 games/sec

    equity win tie
    { AQs, AQo }: 64.876% 63.96% 00.92%
    { random }: 35.124% 34.21% 00.92%
  3. ozibloke ozibloke is offline

    Melbourne
    Australia

    Posts: 133
    Joined: Aug 06

    Nov 4th, 2008 (11/4/2008 8:25pm) in reply to MYBLUEDOG

    Thanks for the reply. When this hand ocurred I had just been on a rollercoaster ride with my stack over the previous coupla hands so the adrenalin was flowing - to my decision making ability's detriment I'm afraid

    Your mathematical analysis is appreciated.

    Cheers

    Ozi
    Thread Starter
  4. Ally Ally is offline

    Minneapolis, MN
    United States

    Posts: 418
    Joined: Aug 06

    Nov 5th, 2008 (11/5/2008 1:04am) in reply to ozibloke

    OMG...

    You are facing an 11X raise. Why on earth would you even consider playing AQ in this spot? Even if you think he's got crap on this raise, why gamble for your entire stack with AQ? What are you going to do if one of the players behind ships it in?

    And, why on earth would you min raise? Maybe and only maybe with AA/KK where it will price in your opponent on any flop?

    And, why would you possibly ever check/call the flop? Even if you feel priced in, you've got to shove that flop. Maybe, just maybe, you'll get someone to fold something like JJ or 55 with no spade.

    My advice: 1) never tangle with someone for an 11X raise in mid position with AQ, unless you know for a fact that the guy is capable of this with total trash and that he would never do this with a hand that crushes you, like AA/KK/AK. 2) Why on earth min/raise? I don't think anyone is putting in 11X and then folding for 11 more. At least a shove here would occassionally fold out some hands that you might be racing against or a 60/40 against like KJs. 3) If you're going to raise out of position to an amount that is basically going to commit you to the pot, you absolutely have to jam the flop when you don't have a really strong hand. If you flop huge here, please check/call all in. But, when you don't have a pair, and only flop overs plus a draw, do you really want to call off your stack on a draw? Like I said, at least a shove on the flop will fold out some things that are beating you.

    Anyway, this whole hand really should play itself when the dude raises 11X the big blind.
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