Check out our brand new Local Poker Communities! Get updates and interact with poker players in your area.
Visit the United States Poker Community | Visit the California Poker Community | Read more about the Launch of P5s Local

Clarify a small maths question thats bugged me for awhile

Reply to Thread
  1. l3astard l3astard is offline

    New Zealand

    Posts: 36
    Joined: Apr 09

    May 27th, 2010 (5/27/2010 8:29pm)

    Ok so awhile ago i was think about maths in poker and the 4 and 2 method and was thinking why if you have a flush draw on the flop so 9 outs so roughly 36% why is it 36% and not 18% and 18%. So when someone bets 100 at a 200 dollar pot on the flop and your calling your flush draw ur calling 100 for 400 which is 25 percent does this not make the call incorrect unless your guranteed a check on the turn? It seems odd that you can call the 36% on the flop then the 18% on the river.
  2. lind0 lind0 is offline

    Vancouver
    Canada

    Posts: 672
    Joined: Jan 06

    May 27th, 2010 (5/27/2010 8:34pm) in reply to l3astard

    [ ] In before fail
  3. gamble153 gamble153 is offline

    Jupiter, FL
    United States

    Posts: 1,179
    Joined: Oct 09

    May 27th, 2010 (5/27/2010 8:36pm) in reply to l3astard

    its roughly 36% cuz there are 2 cards coming. 100 to win 300...not 400 which means your getting 3.1 to call and as long as your "get there" % is higher than the price its laying than its a profitable play.

    200 pot
    100 bet
    300 total 3.1 = 25%

    9 outs, using 4x key is 36%

    36% > 25% = profit

    dont forget implied odds.... he might not pay you off if flush comes, so make him get it all in early.....gl with that
  4. l3astard l3astard is offline

    New Zealand

    Posts: 36
    Joined: Apr 09

    May 27th, 2010 (5/27/2010 8:55pm) in reply to gamble153

    yeah so ur calling 100 to win 400 like that will be the total after you called i ment ha we dont work in fractions here, im not talking about working it out im talking about your get there percentage IS NOT 36% unless you see two cards so how can you base your turn call on that 36%? when in reality its your first go at a 18% chance?????

    And whats with the last coment thats like anti implied odds get it in early on the draw? lol
    Thread Starter
  5. gamble153 gamble153 is offline

    Jupiter, FL
    United States

    Posts: 1,179
    Joined: Oct 09

    May 27th, 2010 (5/27/2010 9:03pm) in reply to l3astard

    dont include your call when figuring the pot odds, it just messes things up.

    you are right about it is only 18% on the next card.
  6. l3astard l3astard is offline

    New Zealand

    Posts: 36
    Joined: Apr 09

    May 27th, 2010 (5/27/2010 9:22pm) in reply to gamble153

    yeah so i need the real reason it is 36% on the flop I cant be right if everyone in the world uses 36% even I do. I just wanna know why lol the mathmatical reasoning for it or watever bugs me so much.
    Thread Starter
  7. phyzer23 phyzer23 is offline

    Posts: 861
    Joined: Apr 07

    May 27th, 2010 (5/27/2010 9:24pm) in reply to l3astard

    its 36% if ur getting both cards ie. getting it all in on flop. other wise its 18%
     
  8. l3astard l3astard is offline

    New Zealand

    Posts: 36
    Joined: Apr 09

    May 27th, 2010 (5/27/2010 9:38pm) in reply to phyzer23

    so you shouldnt base you flop calling for pot odds based on the "get there percentage"?
    Thread Starter
  9. JonesZ JonesZ is offline

    United States

    Posts: 456
    Joined: Jul 07

    May 27th, 2010 (5/27/2010 9:44pm) in reply to l3astard

    I have often wondered why the math is not 36% for each card. After all it is one card at a time....
  10. l3astard l3astard is offline

    New Zealand

    Posts: 36
    Joined: Apr 09

    May 27th, 2010 (5/27/2010 9:51pm) in reply to JonesZ

    before the 4 and 2 method I used to work it out like this

    52 cards in deck 13 of any suit

    you have say 2 hearts in your hand and the flop has two hearts

    so you know 5 cards so there are 47 left 9 hearts left

    now i used to just times the 9 by 2 which is 18 because if you times the 47 by 2 you get 94

    so its close enough to a percentage for me and just times it by 2 on the flop to give your two card percent
    Thread Starter
  11. bonflizubi bonflizubi is offline

    Cambridge, MA
    United States

    Posts: 4,519
    Joined: Sep 07

    May 27th, 2010 (5/27/2010 11:17pm) in reply to l3astard

     
    Originally Posted by l3astard View Post

    before the 4 and 2 method I used to work it out like this

    52 cards in deck 13 of any suit

    you have say 2 hearts in your hand and the flop has two hearts

    so you know 5 cards so there are 47 left 9 hearts left

    now i used to just times the 9 by 2 which is 18 because if you times the 47 by 2 you get 94

    so its close enough to a percentage for me and just times it by 2 on the flop to give your two card percent

    man that is too much thinking.

    4 and 2 method works street by street as well.

    9outs for the flush on the flop right?

    so you are 9x2 = 18% to hit on the turn and 9x2= 18% to hit the river.

    For any street you double the number of outs. For 2 streets you re-double that number, or multiply your outs by 4.

    Same thing!
     
  12. thereraise thereraise is offline

    San Diego, CA
    United States

    Posts: 5,063
    Joined: Nov 06

    May 27th, 2010 (5/27/2010 11:23pm) in reply to l3astard

    you're 36% to make your flush by the river with 2 cards to come

    you're 18% to make your flush by the river with 1 card to come

    probly being leveled tho
  13. GambleAB GambleAB is offline 1. I'm awesome

    Las Vegas, NV
    United States

    Posts: 5,493
    Joined: Apr 05

    May 28th, 2010 (5/28/2010 1:39am) in reply to l3astard

     
    Originally Posted by l3astard View Post

    Ok so awhile ago i was think about maths in poker and the 4 and 2 method and was thinking why if you have a flush draw on the flop so 9 outs so roughly 36% why is it 36% and not 18% and 18%. So when someone bets 100 at a 200 dollar pot on the flop and your calling your flush draw ur calling 100 for 400 which is 25 percent does this not make the call incorrect unless your guranteed a check on the turn? It seems odd that you can call the 36% on the flop then the 18% on the river.

    You are 18.75% to hit on the turn and 34% to hit by the river. The shorthand method that you are using is basically only relevant if you want to see if you have the correct pot odds to call an allin on the flop, since that is the only time that you'll be able to see both the turn and the river for that single bet on the flop.
     
Reply to Thread

Similar Threads