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Coin Flips and Stack Sizes

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  1. calhoun137 calhoun137 is offline

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    May 10th, 2010 (5/10/2010 9:25am)

    Consider the following hypothetical situation:

    I raise preflop UTG w XX, and it is folded around to the BB who shoves with YY. For the sake of argument, lets say that I know for sure that we are in a 50/50 situation.

    Now I am (basically) in a chip neutral EV position, but the variance associated with making this call depends on the stack sizes. So heres my question:

    What stack sizes (in terms of M) for myself and the BB would make a fold the preferred play, or do you never fold in this spot? In other words, how does the variance associated with a play affect your decisions in chip neutral spots like this?

    Also, how does your own perceived edge over the field affect this decision, i.e. If I believe I have an X% edge over the field, how does this affect the stack sizes needed to make folding here preferred.
  2. beorn22 beorn22 is offline

    West Warwick, RI
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    May 10th, 2010 (5/10/2010 10:13am) in reply to calhoun137

    Before I try this one out, Id like some feedback on my thoughts. Im trying to get a better understanding for the game and would like some honest feedback on my thoughts. I think one of my leaks is calling ranges deep in a tourney after raising. I might be too tight. Thanks.

    Usually, I make this decision based on how I feel I match up against the others at the table. For a very weak table, I am most likely laying down for two reason: one is that you can dominate the table and two is that most weak players only play back with premiums deep in a tourney (IMO). For a strong table, if I feel I need to chip up in order to run the table, I would probably call. In terms of M, I would say that less than 8 is more likely to be going in. Lastly, in terms of a pure mathematically scenario, if it is a flip and you already put in a raise and blinds and antes are in the pot, math dictates you call because you are getting better odds than he is laying you. So overtime, its +EV.
  3. rochustler rochustler is offline

    Rochester, NY
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    May 10th, 2010 (5/10/2010 10:17am) in reply to calhoun137

    First, you never know with 100% certainty that it is a coinflip.

    Second, you are not in a "chip neutral EV position" due to the blinds, antes, and your raise.
     
  4. calhoun137 calhoun137 is offline

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    May 10th, 2010 (5/10/2010 10:24am) in reply to rochustler

     
    Originally Posted by rochustler View Post

    First, you never know with 100% certainty that it is a coinflip.

    This is just an idealized situation to present a theoretical question.

     
    Originally Posted by rochustler View Post

    Second, you are not in a "chip neutral EV position" due to the blinds, antes, and your raise.

    I wrote basically in parenthesis since I realize this. Folding only makes sense when both players have large stacks, so in this case it is (basically, or approximately) chip neutral.

    Since this is an idealized hypothetical, I could easily restate the problem so that it is exactly chip neutral, but that's unnecessary since the point of the question should be clear, namely:

    how does the variance associated with a play affect your decisions in chip neutral spots like this?

    EDIT: you can think about the problem like this, we know for sure we are in a chip neutral situation against the opponents range.
    Thread Starter
  5. TomPrefontaine TomPrefontaine is offline

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    May 10th, 2010 (5/10/2010 10:25am) in reply to calhoun137

    I think it depends on the table and how good you think you are... Do you need to risk everything on 50/50 or do you think you can get all in with 60/40...

    that said flipping vs another bigstack can take you pretty far in a tourney especially if you are good at playing with a bigstack.
  6. okse54 okse54 is offline

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    May 10th, 2010 (5/10/2010 11:40am) in reply to calhoun137

    assuming we r 100% sure we r flipping

    and assuming that there arent rly any ICM implications

    i call everytime
     
  7. calhoun137 calhoun137 is offline

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    May 10th, 2010 (5/10/2010 11:46am) in reply to okse54

     
    Originally Posted by okse54 View Post

    ...and assuming that there arent rly any ICM implications...

    right, but the whole point of this question is what are those ICM implications that make you fold? In other words, what stack sizes (and what other factors) determine the boundary between folding and calling, according to ICM, in this idealized situation?
    Thread Starter
  8. winkie23 winkie23 is offline

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    May 10th, 2010 (5/10/2010 11:57am) in reply to calhoun137

     
    Originally Posted by calhoun137 View Post


    right, but the whole point of this question is what are those ICM implications that make you fold? In other words, what stack sizes (and what other factors) determine the boundary between folding and calling, according to ICM, in this idealized situation?

    I would argue that if, for example, we are literally 1 player away from the money bubble busting a known flip is most definitely a fold. While we all "play to win" the simple fact is it would +EV to fold in this spot to at least guarantee yourself your buyin + a little extra back. The chips you stand to lose are worth more than the double if you win the flip. This answer changes dramatically depending on the payout structure as well. If there is a shorty left, for example, in a Final Table only paid tournament - with 10 players left you have to fold pretty much everything. You're asking a very complex question, whose answer depends on a lot of different variables...in general though, I really hate being <=15 blinds and am more than happy to flip then if not earlier. gl
  9. rungoodmuch rungoodmuch is offline

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    May 10th, 2010 (5/10/2010 12:02pm) in reply to calhoun137

    This is totally player dependent and situational.
  10. okse54 okse54 is offline

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    May 10th, 2010 (5/10/2010 12:11pm) in reply to calhoun137

     
    Originally Posted by calhoun137 View Post

    right, but the whole point of this question is what are those ICM implications that make you fold? In other words, what stack sizes (and what other factors) determine the boundary between folding and calling, according to ICM, in this idealized situation?

    didnt realize u meant with ICM implications, seemed like u wanted to know if ur faced with a nuetral play, is there a chip stack size that u would fold.

    with ICM implications obviously many nuetral cEV situations are -$EV situations, it just becomes a calculation of what u think ur stack will be worth if u win or lose and this calc could be different for different ppl

    but with ICM it depends on alot of factors like how many ppl r left, payout structure, the chip distribution between other players. so ur question about how big ur stack would need to be is not rly a good question imo
     
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