I posted this article today partly because Cal and I were just discussing that same hand today from the WSOP this year, where Paul Wasicka folded his open end straight flush draw with a ton of money in the pot. I'm sure there are a lot of varying opinions on that hand, and likewise, I've had numerous arguments with friends of mine over what is, in fact, the proper strategy in the NBC Game Show "Deal or No Deal," which I've been known to watch pretty often...

For the record, I disagree largely with this article, but it does have some merit. To discount the importance of risk/reward scenarios and how much they mean to the individual involved is a pretty big error, I think, and it's generally the topic when I'm arguing with one of my friends about DOND. Reality is that if your cases are $200, $10k, $400k, and $1M, and you knock of the $1M case, your next offer is going to be something around $100k, and probably even lower, because they know that most people won't risk missing out on an 80-90k payday when chances are 33% that they'll get next to nothing. Therefore, you're risking approximately $160k (which you'll lose 25% of the time) to win another $140k or so (which is about what your deal would realistically go up by if you pick the $200 or the $10k, which happens 50% of the time). If you knock off the $400k, your deal will likely go down but not too much.

Now, you can do all the EV calculations in the world, but if you put $160k in front of me and said "you can take that or bet it all with a 25% chance of losing and a 50% chance of doubling it," I don't take the bet. Call me what you want, but I don't gamble with that kind of money.

I believe that if Paul Wasicka had seen that Jamie could only beat him while also losing to Binger with 2 cards in the deck (the two non-spade 3's), he would have gotten his money in on that hand in the WSOP. Afterall, his fear had to be that Binger would survive while he would bust, in a scenario where Binger finished with the best hand and Wasicka finished with the worst. That scenario would cost him $2M, and while obvious relatively simple math shows us that getting his money there is +cEV and undoubtably +$EV as well, maybe Paul Wasicka just didn't want to gamble with $2M and felt comfortable that by sticking around, he would be able to outlast Binger.

Anyway, it's all interesting food for thought....

I doubt he's too unhappy with the $6M he made. I'm sure that he'd have been a lot happier with 12M and winning the championship, but that was not even close to a guarantee if he won this hand (if he won the hand and busted Binger, he'd still be about even with Jamie). It may just not have been worth the risk to him. $2M extra goes a long way in the real world. You can make close to $200k a year just off of relatively low risk investments.

The truth is that there's more to a lot of decisions people make than EV, even if they have a thorough understanding of the math involved. It all really comes down to what your risk tolerance is. I guess in Paul's case, he didn't feel like it was worth getting his money in against Jamie there on what seemed like a likely 60/40 or so scenario for him, given the risk of dropping $2M in pay from what he could get for second. From a straight statistics/EV standpoint, that's a poor decision, but when the amount of money involved is that significant to him, I don't believe the decision is quite so cut and dry.

I dunno, I can lay down anything, I mean pretty much anything. Your talkin to a guy that has folded QQ pre flop more than once in a tourney, more than once, and I couldnt even of laid that down. Not that hand in that situation, no way in hell. You can feed me all the " varying opions" you want to about what to do there based on varying styles or blah,blah,blah, whatever but I will never see that as a justified fold. He lays that down but makes a dumb/ retarded call heads up? why the hell couldnt he lay the tens? Guy thought he was a hell of a lot better than he really was, that was his problem. He was blabbin away at the mouth about how he'd beat Gold heads up if he got there no matter the chip differential but he loses on a dumb ass hand like that and didnt even give himself a chance. Its the wsop main event, 3 handed, staring at a mountain of chips and you fold that???? No, I'm sorry. No way in hell. I lose respect for anybody that says they too would've folded or who argues to the favor of folding there.

I completely agree w/u. Differnce of 0-2, ofcourse, easy fold. Difference of 4-6 and giving yourself the best chance to win the WSOP MAIN EVENT, come on, gotta make that call.

im friends with paul and the major reason he folded was because he thought jamie had a bigger flush draw. he didnt fold because of the payout jump.

All I know is that if your gonna make that fold there to move up 2 million and because your so confident in your heads up game regardless of your chip stack then you better atleast make a good showing once you've gotten there and not blow it all on one donk ass hand where you couldn't lay tens w/ an over on the board.

I agree with you adam that you can't possibly discount what the difference in money means to the individual person. What stood out to me with Wasicka's laydown is when they did private interviews with he and Jamie before HU Wasicka claimed that if he had even 10% of the chips in play that he thought he could beat Jamie Gold Heads up. I think this also could have been going through his head. Binger sat pretty tight the entire FT and it seemed that if Wasicka just stayed outta Jamie's way that eventually Jamie would be the rock that Binger broke himself against, and they could go heads up. But yea, Wasicka's confidence that he could beat Jamie heads up was to me what I thought the determining factor was. I know that sometimes in an MTT I'm sitting there with 3 left in 2nd thinking if I could just get this guy HU, I'd take this down.

If there are 4 unopened envelopes with a prize pay out of 200k 400k 10k and 1 m , then your expectation for drawing one more envelope is :

200k/4+400k/4+10k/4+1000k/4 = 402.5 k

Obviously this player is better off drawing than standing pat .

If he think he have a higher flushdraw this is a AUTOFOLD couldnt be eiaser..
I mean his plan when he see the flop is obv to checkraise all in vs Binger then when Gold go all in he get in a sick spot really becouse if he call here great chance Binger fold and pray Wasicka lose and get another 2 millions and the fact that 2 guys is all in he need a great hand to call 2 all in (btw i dont have a clue what Binger had but that doesnt matter becouse was doesnt know that either)..
And that if he call he is basically just praying he is in a good spot lets say golf have AT and T off spade then he is in with 52.63% chance to win and if only gold have a AT without spade still only 56,26% chance to win and have to consider that Binger can also call and the he must likely have less chance to win.. If Gold have worse AT spade he is down to 31.21% chance to win and vs a set 42% chance..
Your more i think about it i think it is a FOLD..But i havent seen what other 2 guys had and you guys have seen it which i think make a different for some off you what you think about the hand..

Is def not a spot i want to come in but to say it is a autocall i dont get..
To push with the hand is kind off autoplay but he didnt get the chance

Jay, it was $200, not 200k

This is the key point here. The difference isn't between an extra 2 million for second and then 6 million more for first.

Winning the ME brings endorsement deals and opportunities of millions more dollars, which makes the gap between 1st and 2nd MUCH bigger. It's probably like $6million vs. $22million and the opportunity to win much more at other tournaments that you get into free for.

Hachem, Raymer, and Moneymaker all have lucrative PStars deals. What about Danneman, Farha, and all the other runner-ups?

When you've already locked up $4 million, risking the next $2million at a chance for $20million more is just good business.

Adam, I suggested in a PM to the admins about 6 months ago that ALL articles should have a discussion link built in like you did here. Glad to see you finally do it!

It's so much better than 10 different threads about an article that you can't find a day or two later.

Through this whole thread only one person mentioned that with two players in, the chances of somebody (jamie gold since he had chips and was gambling the whole time) having a higher spade draw and eliminating half of his outs has barely been mentioned. Heads up I think this an easier decision, but with two other players involved and the way the hand was played, I don't see how you can count any more than 8 clean outs.

reverse it then you dont have better odds on having the 0,1 picked as first or?

You said this.. "i havent seen what other 2 guys had" Go back to the P5 home page and read the deal or no deal article and you will find out what each player had.