Not while the Cake bosses are listening to a word that I say.

Best regards,
Lee Jones

Cake Poker Cardroom Manager

.

down for me...thought it was my computer

It's down for me....hopefully will be back up soon.

It' back up

accept my friend request already lee, stop slow-rolling me

The #3 slot is open right now for the US. People are fed up that UB (Cereus) and Bodog have digressed since UIGEA. And Cake has caught up to UB and Bodog as a viable 3rd option for US players.

Problem is that people want Cake/UB/Bodog or some combination thereof to take "the lead" as it were - to become the obvious third choice. And merging two of these three would vault that combined network into the #3 spot.

Right now - each of these sites have problems. Bodog has not improved their software in years (the recent changes were like putting a dress on a pig) and their guarantees are non-existent/laughable. UB has a reputation issue and problems with random stuff like the $1k heads-up event a few weeks ago. And Cake is losing their largest skin/partner and will be lowering guarantees.

All of them have something to be concerned about - because if/when UIGEA is repealed, there are several other companies that would be looking to move in (and move in swiftly). So positioning themselves as a strong #3 right now would be a smart move - and if that means merger - so be it.

IMO - the best/most likely combination would be Cereus and Cake, with Cake being the name brand. You get rid of the history (and personnel/ties to the poor UB history) but Cake would be smart to take several things that people like from UB (mainly - their MTT structures).

Bodog is simply not a poker site anymore - they are a sportsbook, racebook and casino with an affiliate poker "skin".

Lee, please turn off the doom switch on me

need more plo players on cake, action is dead :(

Maybe theres just not room for a 3rd major site?

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i used to play 5 sites back in the heyday of online and it was awesome, ppl definately need more options that ftp and stars

 

Originally Posted by scarface_79

no, they just need more exposure and advertisement and perhaps take a page from ftp and stars and sign some players playa

+1. THere is definitely room for a third site (for americans) which is basically what i think we are talking about here....

Thing of it is it's all about having the right amount of investment capital behind you, the right people running the place, and the right business plan.

For anyone to have a half a shot at becoming anywhere close to #3 behind stars and tilt, I can't even fathom the size of investment it would require.

Just look what you have running against you to overcome:

1) size - FTP and stars are mammoth already. And players will go to wherever the most other players are.

2) Brand recognition/Advertising. Think for a minute who actually advertises on TV here in the states or runs programming essentially under their brand names. Stars and Tilt. OK there's that little Joe Seebok show on Versus, but between PAD, NAPT's that are going to be shown on ESPN, that weird Negreanu show etc... and the fact that any poker show is littered with ads for Stars and tilt and noone else means that noobs only see those brands.

Bill Gates would have trouble coming up with an ad budget to compete with these guys. I don't see anyone else having any shot in the near future. And without that you'll never get the brand recognition to get that size player liquidity.

2A) OK, Cereus is the only one that MIGHT be able to try. Their software is at least functional and they do have a brand that is known. But they would need to "come clean" enough for existing players to feel comfortable there for one thing. They'd need to sign a TON more pros that people see on TV all the time... and their ad budget would be in the hundreds of millions. Given today's uncertainty around laws and stuff, would anyone give them that much money for expansion?

Actually, I'll edit here. WSOP or some offshoot of the Vegas casinos might be able to do it. They have the brand names, knowledge of the business, and ability to get and spend the capital required. I think many have read that they are prepping themselves to do this stuff, but I think they would be insane to try and get a toehold in the states beyond a token presence until the gaming laws make it legal. I don't see why they couldn't get huge elsewhere in the world though if say MGM/Harrahs/Bellagio/ whomever wanted to use their brand clout to do it. THe only reason they must not be doing it today is out of fear of somehow cannibalizing their own existing physical properties. That of course is a huge mistake. The ability to play online isn't really going ot keep people from going to vegas/tahoe/AC or wherever they would go. THe threat to those businesses is the proliferation of casinos and poker rooms across the country. My bet here is that the first major casino player that gets a decent platform up and running and at least gets a non US player base of some kind will be in the driver's seat for a good shot at the US market when the time finally comes.

3) software. SW development isn't cheap. If it were, there wouldn't be so much cheap shitty cake/bodog like software out there. And again, only way to get software to even come close to what is clearly the best of the bunch (tilt.stars) would require Massive capital outlays. I'm sure Lee JOnes would agree that with a big enough staff and a few hunderd million they might actually be able to come out with something reliable and that both regs and fish alike would like - but it would still take years. But even with that said, everyone is behind stars and tilt who are years ahead to begin with and still pouring money into the sw.

4) Pure poker model vs sportsbook/poker model. It's no coincidence that stars and tilt are just plain old poker, while just about everyone else is poker/casino/sportsbook in some combination. US legalities aside, there's got to be a ton more money in the casino/sportsbook business then the poker business. No wonder those mixed busines models want to put their money into the other sides of the business.

5) TO get bigger any site is going to have to steal share from the others. THere really isn't that much organic growth out there. And for all the reasons above, I'd wager most people starting out on teh net playing are going to end up

Add all of that above and the clear conclusion to me is that not a single of the other US friendly rooms really wants to try and claw a big chunk of business away from the top 2. If they thought it was a smart investment, they'd fight that fight.

Cake can come here and say they want that spot, as can Cereus... i don't think anyone else would make that claim. BUt regardless, I don't believe anyone really wants that spot-- at least they don't want to be a *close* third. Maybe a really distant third at best. Actions have spoken on that front.

And finally, what WILL finally let it happen where there is a legit #3? Only clarification or changes of US laws in a a way that allows everyone out there to compete for US players. When party, everest, betfair, or whoever else has a major non-us operation is allowed to come back in.... and has some brand recogntion and the willingness to SPEND what it takes - only then will there be a consensus #3 that will show up.

THat's my 27 cents.......