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Difficult decision with QQ

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  1. ferrengi ferrengi is offline

    Brooklyn, NY
    United States

    Posts: 762
    Joined: Jul 05

    Mar 16th, 2006 (3/16/2006 9:09pm)

    This is from a $10 MTT on party
    I am playing as dnrules
    I've been alternating between loose and tight play at this table. I think my opponent may have been suspicious of me because I had raised a couple of hands in the last round.

    Do you call his reraise?
    I would be interested to hear your thought process here.

    ***** Hand History for Game 3758739974 *****
    NL Texas Hold'em Trny:21089662 Level:6 Blinds(200/400) - Thursday, March 16, 22:02:52 ET 2006
    Table $20K Gtd.(632912) Table #3 (Real Money)
    Seat 7 is the button
    Total number of players : 10
    Seat 4: Marmitekite ( $6830 )
    Seat 5: joepoo13 ( $7996 )
    Seat 9: dnrules ( $13370 )
    Seat 10: CaptainRimJob ( $30637 )
    Seat 1: cclausen ( $3942 )
    Seat 8: Need____Luck ( $3134 )
    Seat 2: Trajan345 ( $7277 )
    Seat 6: riccook1 ( $6844 )
    Seat 7: cdj224 ( $9420 )
    Seat 3: badgirl1l ( $7630 )
    Trny:21089662 Level:6
    Blinds(200/400)
    ** Dealing down cards **
    Dealt to dnrules [ Qc Qd ]
    CaptainRimJob folds.
    cclausen folds.
    Trajan345 folds.
    badgirl1l raises [800].
    Marmitekite folds.
    joepoo13 folds.
    riccook1 folds.
    cdj224 folds.
    Need____Luck folds.
    dnrules raises [2000].
    badgirl1l is all-In [6830]
    dnrules: what do you have?
    Your time bank will be activated in 5 secs. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
    dnrules will be using his time bank for this hand.
    dnrules - ?
  2. trsba trsba is offline

    Brisbane
    Australia

    Posts: 672
    Joined: Mar 06

    Mar 16th, 2006 (3/16/2006 9:27pm) in reply to ferrengi

    Pretty hard to lay that down I think 60% chance your hand dominates theres as they are on the short stack coulf be doing it with JJ, AK, AQ or even 10-10.. Hard to lay down QQ heads up
  3. ferrengi ferrengi is offline

    Brooklyn, NY
    United States

    Posts: 762
    Joined: Jul 05

    Mar 16th, 2006 (3/16/2006 9:44pm) in reply to trsba

    If he has AK I am not dominating him. It's about 57-43 and that's unsuited. Suited it's 53-47.
    I can't see him doing this with AQ. JJ and 10-10 maybe. However, doesn't the betting pattern strike you as being a little strange? He started the hand with about 20 BB and min raises. His min raise could mean a lot of different things at this point. Now, I put in a sizable reraise and he sees fit to go all in? What could be going on here?

    I was thinking there are really only 2 possiblities:

    1) He was building a pot with a very strong hand such as KK or AA
    2) He did not have a strong hand to begin with but he is not ready to lay it down either so instead he decides to go all in and get me to lay it down. I do not see him doing this with garbage. I think he has either a mid pocket pair or AK.

    I rate possiblity #1 as more than 50% likely. Something like 60 to 75%.
    I could be wrong.
    I would be interested to see some detailed analysis with a range of hands and probabilities.
    Thread Starter
  4. jvidro03 jvidro03 is offline

    Janesville, WI
    United States

    Posts: 35
    Joined: Jul 05

    Mar 16th, 2006 (3/16/2006 10:25pm) in reply to ferrengi

    i think this is a judgement of instincts for u.. but i would definitely call his all in here. Think about it, he doubles BB early, most likely KQ or AT, i would definitely call him down. i believe that 85% of reraises pflop in NLHE are from High cards, but that doesnt matter here because this isnt in general. I would assess harrington's 10% rule here. it would look like this for me: 70% he has OCs 20% over pair and 10% bluff(KQ or lower).70% x 55%, 20% x 20%, 10% x 75%. so the odds are pretty close to 50-50..so it comes down to ur gut....
    GL in the future
    Jvidro03
  5. trsba trsba is offline

    Brisbane
    Australia

    Posts: 672
    Joined: Mar 06

    Mar 16th, 2006 (3/16/2006 10:40pm) in reply to ferrengi

    Not too difficult a decision really.. Only 2 hands u worry about here.. I'll take on AK anytime with QQ knowing what happens over 100 hands.
  6. Tim Lock Tim Lock is offline

    FL
    United States

    Posts: 7,834
    Joined: Nov 05

    Mar 16th, 2006 (3/16/2006 11:12pm) in reply to ferrengi

    Your read on this player is crucial here. But barring no read, I call all day and ride out the results. Only 2 hands dominate you. I'll take those chances.

    Tim Lock
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