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Do i need help with my 180 game?

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  1. Laois Hammer Laois Hammer is offline

    Port Laoise
    Ireland

    Posts: 536
    Joined: May 08

    Feb 10th, 2011 (2/10/2011 9:52am)

    Surely theres more to a 7k breakeven stretch than variance??

    Could i have been doing something wrong all along?

    Is there anyone to help with this?

     
  2. Im a fn sta Im a fn sta is offline

    Saint Petersburg, FL
    United States

    Posts: 397
    Joined: Oct 06

    Feb 10th, 2011 (2/10/2011 2:55pm) in reply to Laois Hammer

    run better. You play fine
  3. jsagan77 jsagan77 is offline

    Honolulu, HI
    United States

    Posts: 759
    Joined: Aug 08

    Feb 10th, 2011 (2/10/2011 3:01pm) in reply to Im a fn sta

    Ouch. Maybe some dynamic has changed that you haven't adjusted to? Or the games have gotten tougher?
  4. winkie23 winkie23 is offline

    CT
    United States

    Posts: 318
    Joined: Dec 08

    Feb 10th, 2011 (2/10/2011 3:02pm) in reply to jsagan77

    What are these, $12's? This stretch doesn't seem much different from the first 7,500 games or so that you played. It looks like you had about $2,000 profit in your first 7,500 games. Assuming these are $12's, that's $90,000 of buy-ins. $2,000/$90,000 = 2.2% ROI. Hard to tell if it's variance or the games getting harder or your play getting worse. How long ago did you start playing? For sure the 180s are a lot tougher today than a few years ago.

    Again, not sure if these are $12's mostly, but with 23,000 games @ $12, you have $276,000 of buy-ins and ~$19,000 of profit, or an ROI of 6.9%. I would think a 6.9% ROI player can easily go breakeven for this long, especially in turbos with high variance.
  5. Laois Hammer Laois Hammer is offline

    Port Laoise
    Ireland

    Posts: 536
    Joined: May 08

    Feb 10th, 2011 (2/10/2011 3:28pm) in reply to winkie23

    Winkie cheers for the reply, the 1st graph is just all sngs 9s/18s/45s/180s,
    this one is all $12s 180s, is there anything to read into this?



    it works out aroun 14% roi, so i guess its just a case of suck it up and ride out the varience??
    Edited By: Laois Hammer Feb 10th, 2011 at 03:28 PM
     
    Thread Starter
  6. winkie23 winkie23 is offline

    CT
    United States

    Posts: 318
    Joined: Dec 08

    Feb 10th, 2011 (2/10/2011 3:35pm) in reply to Laois Hammer

    Ahhh, this changes things a bit then. That's still a real solid looking chart. You're only breakeven-ish over your last 2,500 180's, which is a lot different than 7,000 games. I wouldn't sweat this at all man. 14% ROI in these is solid and this seems well within the realm of a normal downswing. I guess the only thing I'd look into is the timing of the games. If your first 10,000 were played back when everyone sucked, then you took a long break from the game for whatever reason and your last 2,500 were played in the past year then that might lead you to a different conclusion and you might not be +EV in these games anymore because they have gotten tougher.

    Nice chart though. I can't beat $12 180s to save my life, i hate them and they hate me.
  7. poisoneye1986 poisoneye1986 is offline

    Cincinnati, OH
    United States

    Posts: 4,852
    Joined: Oct 07

    Feb 10th, 2011 (2/10/2011 4:02pm) in reply to winkie23

    looks like ur pretty good at these, just dont take that for granted. always try to stop a leak.
  8. Skitz0Frenik Skitz0Frenik is offline

    Zürich
    Switzerland

    Posts: 521
    Joined: Feb 08

    Feb 10th, 2011 (2/10/2011 4:58pm) in reply to poisoneye1986

    They are tougher but definitely room for a 30+% ROI, so I think you have some room for improvement. Probably need to shove wider.
  9. BenJamin327 BenJamin327 is online now

    Rapid City, SD
    United States

    Posts: 246
    Joined: Aug 10

    Feb 10th, 2011 (2/10/2011 4:59pm) in reply to Skitz0Frenik

    i saw ihaterivers had a 13k games break even stretch, good luck op online 3k more games to match him
  10. Drewace34 Drewace34 is offline

    New Westminster
    Canada

    Posts: 1,961
    Joined: Jan 08

    Feb 10th, 2011 (2/10/2011 6:53pm) in reply to jsagan77

     
    Originally Posted by jsagan77 View Post

    Ouch. Maybe some dynamic has changed that you haven't adjusted to? Or the games have gotten tougher?

    This was always true even in the early days of the 180...Always found a lot of regs were a few months behind the "real" adjusted curve in optimal play style, with that being said I still think most of you guys played +Ev just a lot of spots you didn't maximize utility. My suggestion to you hammer would be see how most people are addressing these games and try and exploit what you think there approach is by doing something different. You'll be suprised how much value you gain in doing so and what most "regs" will deem "spew" is actually optimal imo.
     
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