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Do you fold here?

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  1. kmarx kmarx is offline

    Binghamton, NY
    United States

    Posts: 57
    Joined: Apr 08

    Aug 13th, 2008 (8/13/2008 11:46pm)

    pokerstars Game #19602159574: Tournament #102018423, $3.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2008/08/13 - 23:43:39 (ET)
    Table '102018423 1' 10-max Seat #8 is the button
    Seat 4: dwlaw (2605 in chips)
    Seat 7: Limednut (6945 in chips)
    Seat 8: swingstyles (610 in chips)
    Seat 9: kmarc06 (4840 in chips)
    dwlaw: posts the ante 25
    Limednut: posts the ante 25
    swingstyles: posts the ante 25
    kmarc06: posts the ante 25
    kmarc06: posts small blind 200
    dwlaw: posts big blind 400
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to kmarc06 [Qc Qh]
    Limednut: raises 3600 to 4000
    swingstyles: folds
  2. Mr_Hand Mr_Hand is offline

    Doylestown, OH
    United States

    Posts: 24
    Joined: Aug 08

    Aug 13th, 2008 (8/13/2008 11:55pm) in reply to kmarx

    No way!! I am pushing here 100% of the time. Even though you are 2nd in chips, your M is around 6, and the chances of them betting 10bbs with a hand that beats QQ are very slim. Being 4 handed, if you are playing for the win, this is a monster. You have to go with it.
  3. kmarx kmarx is offline

    Binghamton, NY
    United States

    Posts: 57
    Joined: Apr 08

    Aug 14th, 2008 (8/14/2008 6:36am) in reply to kmarx

    I think I'd still have to disagree. Unless I'm doing the math wrong I don't need to be just "ahead", I need to be >75% in this particular spot to justify calling equity-wise right? Please someone who knows correct me if I'm wrong but I think I'm risking about $9 to gain about $3 if I call? I think I'm definitely supposed to fold if he showed me Ax or Kx before he raised. If I need 75% then calling (I'm considering his raise a shove) against smaller pocket pairs and connectors are only slightly +$EV to be calling against right? Based on his play I don't think he shoves like that with any kind of connector (He's folded 3 straight rounds). Based on that I think folding is slightly > calling but of course calling wouldn't be terrible.

    not that it matters but I did time out and fold, he showed KK (weird). I ended up 2nd in the tournament.
    Thread Starter
  4. Rycky4Golf Rycky4Golf is offline

    Houston, TX
    United States

    Posts: 233
    Joined: Feb 07

    Aug 14th, 2008 (8/14/2008 10:39am) in reply to kmarx

    I'm sure someone like Jennifear can give us the long answer but I'm thinking ICM would dictate that this is a fold. I know that QQ is huge but I bet the calling range is KK or AA only. You just can't risk calling and losing with the amount of equity you have compared to the other stacks.

    Maybe somebody could give us the math breakdown on it and tell me if I'm right or wrong.
  5. Jennifear Jennifear is offline

    Niagara Falls, NY
    United States

    Posts: 10,222
    Joined: Nov 05

    Aug 14th, 2008 (8/14/2008 2:39pm) in reply to kmarx

    <TABLE class=simple cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=3 border=1><TBODY><TR><TH width=40>PU</TH><TH width=40>CA</TH><TH width=40>OC</TH><TH>Range</TH></TR><TR><TD>CO</TD><TD><TD><TD>82.8%, 22+ Qx+ J2s+ J4o+ T2s+ T5o+ 92s+ 95o+ 82s+ 85o+ 72s+ 74o+ 62s+ 64o+ 52s+ 53o+ 42s+ 32s <<<what he should be shoving with</TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>BU</TD><TD><TD>41.8%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K5o+ Q4s+ Q8o+ J7s+ J9o+ T8s+ T9o 98s </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD><TD>SB</TD><TD>7.5%, 77+ ATs+ AJo+ </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>33.5%, 33+ Ax+ K3s+ K6o+ Q8s+ Q9o+ JTs </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>SB</TD><TD><TD>1.4%, QQ+ <<your calling range, if he is indeed shoving this wide</TD></TR><TR><TD><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>0.5%, AA </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD><TD>2.3%, TT+ </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
    It comes down to what you think he is raising. If he's raising 40% of all hands, you need KK. If he's raising all of the time, then QQ is good enough.

    The worst scenario is that he is raising only the top 15% of hands (a very typical range at this stage):

    <TABLE class=pptSimTable cellSpacing=0 border=1><TBODY><TR class=pptSimLabels><TH>Hand</TH><TH>Pot equity</TH><TH>Wins</TH><TH>Ties</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=pptSpec>QQ</TD><TD class=pptEV>67.44%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>1,161,540,744</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>18,682,140</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD class=pptSpec>15%</TD><TD class=pptEV>32.56%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>556,053,372</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>18,682,140</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
    His raise size indicates that he does not want action, so it's less likely to be AA or KK. So this is close, without reads.

    This key piece of information (shover's range) is missing from the OP.
  6. kmarx kmarx is offline

    Binghamton, NY
    United States

    Posts: 57
    Joined: Apr 08

    Aug 14th, 2008 (8/14/2008 5:57pm) in reply to Jennifear

    I looked back through the hand history and from the first hand that the antes were introduced up until this hand the pot came unopened to the CL 11 times. Of those 11 he folded 7 times, called twice, raised 3x once, and minraised once. So he's definitely not shoving the range that he should be shoving. Given this I think as tight as 10% 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo is reasonable. Which only makes me wish that I had folded quicker. Thanks to all for responding/helping my thought process.
    Thread Starter
  7. PANTERA PANTERA is offline

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    Joined: May 06

    Aug 15th, 2008 (8/15/2008 4:55pm) in reply to kmarx

    you sit/go pros correct me if im wrong please but in a $3 sit are the players using standard s/g logic?

    what if he calls and has to fold to a AK flop,he still has a 1055 and the button. the shortstack will be allin before his blind anyway and he still gets 3rd.

    if he wins hes got 10k and plays for 1st...seems to me that folding is playing for 3rd..

    in a bigger buyin i might agree...am i wrong?
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