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Donkey if I call? Donkey if I fold? Whats the right move?

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  1. czechraiser czechraiser is offline

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    May 25th, 2006 (5/25/2006 8:57am)

    Heads-up match on Fulltilt. Aggressive to very aggressive opponent. To cut to the chase, I have slightly less than a 2-1 chip lead and make an agressive play with Q-5. I raise pre-flop and my opponent calls me. ( He called just about every pre-flop raise )

    Flop comes A-9-5

    I bet 3/4 of the pot. My opponent takes a moment, and then pushes his remaining chips in. I know the opponent, and I know he has an Ace. If he had two pair or trips, he'd slowplay this. So I knew with absolute certainty he had one pair. Knowing I'm about a 4.5 to 1 underdog here, I'm forced with what seems to be an easy decision, FOLD. But I'm getting 4-1 on my money to make the call with my measley pair of fives. If I fold, I'm staring at an 1900-1100 chip defeceit. If I call and lose, I have about 700 chips left. I believe I was a better player than my opponent. But I'd say the edge was 5% or less. The blinds were 25-50. Based on all the information, what is your play here and why?
  2. SodaPopinski SodaPopinski is offline

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    May 25th, 2006 (5/25/2006 9:00am) in reply to czechraiser

    I would fold here and wait for a better opportunity, he at least has the 9 in this situation and probably has the A, so you are left with 5 outs possibly to outdraw him. If you know you are beat then the pot odds are really irrelevant. FOLD and outplay him on better hands.
  3. ThePhenom919 ThePhenom919 is offline

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    May 25th, 2006 (5/25/2006 7:55pm) in reply to czechraiser

    Fold...You can't beat anything you believe he would have. If you think you're better than your opponent, you should fold and wait for a better spot.
  4. czechraiser czechraiser is offline

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    May 26th, 2006 (5/26/2006 11:08am) in reply to ThePhenom919

    Interesting responses so far. If I fold, I have 1100 of the 3000 chips in play. That is 36.7% of the chips in play, meaning I have a 36.7% chance to win. Now I did say I felt I was slightly better than the opponent, but that the ege was less than 5%. So we'll add 2% to the number of chips I have, and say I had a 38.7% chance to win.

    Now lets say I call. I'll win the hand 18.5% of the time and when I do, I win the match. The remaining 81.5% of the time, I'll lose the hand. When I lose, I'll be left with 700 of the 3000 chips in play. That is 23.3% of the chips in play, making my chances to win 23.3%. Again, since I'm slightly better than the opponent, I'll bump my % chance up by 2% to 25.3%.

    Now for the actual results. Option 1 is fold: When I do so, I have 38.7% to win.

    Option 2 is to call: When I do so, I have 18.5% to suck out, and an additional 25.3% chance to comeback and win later, should I not suckout in this hand. That brings the total for calling to 43.8 % to win

    Now, if I call and lose the hand, I'll be outchipped 2300-700. Because of that predicament, no matter how much better I am than my opponent, most of the plays I could use to outplay him wouldn't be available to me because of my chip count. I'd be very close to critical condition so I wouldn't be able to make any fancy plays. Because of this, maybe its fair to take the 2% edge I give myself away if I call and lose. Even still, I'm 41.8% to win by calling vs. 38.7% to win by folding. Anyone who has other ideas PLEASE shoot them my way.
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  5. SodaPopinski SodaPopinski is offline

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    May 26th, 2006 (5/26/2006 12:51pm) in reply to czechraiser

    You are calculating those odds with him just having an Ace or a 9, factor in if he has A 9 or A 5 or a set, and you will see why folding here is the right move.
  6. Johnny Ringo Johnny Ringo is offline

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    May 26th, 2006 (5/26/2006 1:43pm) in reply to SodaPopinski

    Touche, sodapop, wise beyond your years.
  7. czechraiser czechraiser is offline

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    May 26th, 2006 (5/26/2006 1:58pm) in reply to Johnny Ringo

    With all due respect, please either read the post fully or do not respond. I clearly say in my post I KNEW HE HAD AN Ace. I also said I KNEW HE WOULD HAVE SLOWPLAYED TWO PAIR OR BETTER. That was his pattern throughout the match. I thought he had A-10. And he turned over A-Js. My read was dead on accurate. If it weren't, I wouldn't have even considered calling.
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  8. jay_shark jay_shark is offline

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    May 26th, 2006 (5/26/2006 2:09pm) in reply to czechraiser

    If he has an ace , you only have 5 outs which makes you about an 8-1 underdog . To be precise , there are 47 unseen cards left in the deck and any 5 can help you . (47-5) / 5= 8.4 :1

    You also have a backdoor flush which means you should add about 1.5 to your total number of outs . Lets say you have 6.5 outs .

    47-6.5/ 6.5 = 6.2 :1 which is not enough to make the call .

    Fold this hand .
  9. czechraiser czechraiser is offline

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    May 26th, 2006 (5/26/2006 2:59pm) in reply to jay_shark

    Jay, I hope your math isn't that erratic when you play, for your sake. 5 outs with two cards to come is not an 8-1 dog. Sorry to say. Do you even know what % I'd need to be to be an 8-1 dog?

    Actually my math was wrong too.....the other way! I listed that I was a 4.5-1 dog. I wasn't nearly that bad. I jsut put it in on the pocketfives card calculator and I was 21% to win. That isn't even as bad as 4-1. Just on pot odds ALONE I was correct to call.
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  10. jay_shark jay_shark is offline

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    May 26th, 2006 (5/26/2006 3:07pm) in reply to czechraiser

    ahhhh yes with two cards to come its not 8-1 my bad . I was thinking of something else .
  11. jay_shark jay_shark is offline

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    May 26th, 2006 (5/26/2006 3:11pm) in reply to czechraiser

    On pot odds alone you are correct to call however there are a few reasons why you shouldn't call .

    When you have twice as many chips as your opponent , all neutral calls benefits the player with the smaller stack . If you also think you're better than this opponent , then you could add a 5 % edge like you said . I personally would lay this hand down .

    Try working this out on ICM and you'll see what I mean .
  12. jay_shark jay_shark is offline

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    May 26th, 2006 (5/26/2006 3:15pm) in reply to jay_shark

    As for your other question 8-1 is equivalent to 1/9 = 0.11111 .
  13. czechraiser czechraiser is offline

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    May 26th, 2006 (5/26/2006 4:14pm) in reply to jay_shark

    Yeah, I was thinking maybe you only figured in one card to come. This is a very odd situation and one that I normally instafold...........but as I'm growing as a player I realize more potential for profit and I guess here is an example. In reveiwing the hand history, I still believe this is a correct call. It is close, and the edge by calling seems very, very minute, but there is an edge nontheless.
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  14. jay_shark jay_shark is offline

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    May 26th, 2006 (5/26/2006 5:10pm) in reply to jay_shark

    It all depends on your pot odds . If it's slightly in your favour , then there are times when it's correct to fold because of ICM .

    ICM just tells you that every additional chip you earn decreases in value . When you have a big stack compared to your opponent , all neutral calls benefits the player with the smaller stack . If you're given 5: 1 pot odds and you think you'll win 20 % of the time , then it's definitely correct to call even if you have a skill edge or a larger chip stack .
  15. Cyclone15 Cyclone15 is offline

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    May 26th, 2006 (5/26/2006 8:16pm) in reply to jay_shark

    IT'S HEADS UP

    ICM lol
  16. jay_shark jay_shark is offline

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    May 26th, 2006 (5/26/2006 8:34pm) in reply to jay_shark

    In this case it doesn't apply but i'm talking in general .
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