Check out our brand new Local Poker Communities! Get updates and interact with poker players in your area.
Visit the United States Poker Community | Visit the California Poker Community | Read more about the Launch of P5s Local

Downswing expectations

Reply to Thread
  1. OlDirtyDawson OlDirtyDawson is offline

    Alto, MI
    United States

    Posts: 1,204
    Joined: Jan 06

    Jan 7th, 2010 (1/7/2010 6:41pm)

    Currently playing $3.30 rebuy 180's on stars. I've only put in about 120 in this year (not many), but haven't been doing very well. I'm trying to figure out if I'm just on a downswing/experiencing variance or if I suck. I have a bankroll big enough to play these, but have lost about 30% of it in the last 5 days.

    Before I risk the rest of it....just curious as to what kind of downswings I can expect, how many tournaments downswings could potentially last, etc. What is your experience?

    There also seems to be a couple of guys who grinds these that wins at least 1 of these every single day, to which I am jealous as all hell.

    Thanks. : )
  2. Goldenad Goldenad is offline

    NJ
    United States

    Posts: 2,669
    Joined: Jun 06

    Jan 7th, 2010 (1/7/2010 6:55pm) in reply to OlDirtyDawson

    whats your average buyin in this tourney? i would imagine $12-18 depending on how youre running. anywho, since these are turbos i could see a 200 buyin downswing so you should probably have 3-4k to feel comfortable
     
  3. XNASTYNATEX XNASTYNATEX is offline

    Bend, OR
    United States

    Posts: 940
    Joined: Jan 07

    Jan 7th, 2010 (1/7/2010 7:03pm) in reply to Goldenad

    I play 4.40 180s and am on a 75 buyin downswing since the new year. Currently it is tied for the second worst downswing i have had in 5000 or so games. (worst 125bi) my roi is about 90%. These things happen.
  4. OlDirtyDawson OlDirtyDawson is offline

    Alto, MI
    United States

    Posts: 1,204
    Joined: Jan 06

    Jan 7th, 2010 (1/7/2010 7:09pm) in reply to Goldenad

     
    Originally Posted by Goldenad View Post

    whats your average buyin in this tourney? i would imagine $12-18 depending on how youre running. anywho, since these are turbos i could see a 200 buyin downswing so you should probably have 3-4k to feel comfortable

    Average buy-in is just a little over $12. At the beginning of the year, had a roll of $2.5K (just over 200 buy-ins).

    200 buy-in downswing? Seriously?
    Thread Starter
  5. OlDirtyDawson OlDirtyDawson is offline

    Alto, MI
    United States

    Posts: 1,204
    Joined: Jan 06

    Jan 7th, 2010 (1/7/2010 7:12pm) in reply to XNASTYNATEX

     
    Originally Posted by XNASTYNATEX View Post

    I play 4.40 180s and am on a 75 buyin downswing since the new year. Currently it is tied for the second worst downswing i have had in 5000 or so games. (worst 125bi) my roi is about 90%. These things happen.

    Thanks for posting, guys. I'm on a 54 BI downswing since the year, but I was kind of expecting it because I had been winning the previous few months. My expectation was to be prepared for a 100 BI downswing at worst from time to time, but wanted to make sure my expectations were tempered correctly.
    Thread Starter
  6. Goldenad Goldenad is offline

    NJ
    United States

    Posts: 2,669
    Joined: Jun 06

    Jan 7th, 2010 (1/7/2010 7:15pm) in reply to OlDirtyDawson

    i think 200 is possible in the $12 180 mans so i would assume these arent too different
     
  7. AnonymousX AnonymousX is offline

    United States

    Posts: 10,934
    Joined: Oct 07

    Jan 7th, 2010 (1/7/2010 7:55pm) in reply to Goldenad

     
    Originally Posted by Goldenad View Post


    i think 200 is possible in the $12 180 mans so i would assume these arent too different

    ummm a 200 buy in downswing is a insane for the $12 180s. i run bad and play even worse and haven't come even close to that kind of downswing.
  8. Drewace34 Drewace34 is offline

    New Westminster
    Canada

    Posts: 1,961
    Joined: Jan 08

    Jan 7th, 2010 (1/7/2010 8:32pm) in reply to AnonymousX

     
    Originally Posted by tsxxx04 View Post

    ummm a 200 buy in downswing is a insane for the $12 180s. i run bad and play even worse and haven't come even close to that kind of downswing.

    play more lol and ull see this shit can suck....the dif b/w grindin these and mtts is everythin is compacted...variance, heaters, downswings etc... not sure if that makes sense but imo ur dealin with a lot of chance @ one time so you just have to play a TON to offset this and overall play absurd volume to maximize ur edge...

    I find myself lookin in the short term way to often short term meanin less than 500 games...to get a good idea where ur at u have to look at the big picture and sometimes that means lookin over a large sample size maybe a month of 1k games; hope this helps - matty

    edit: and tsx played with you a bit in past week, doubt i've seen you get out of line or play bad pots
     
  9. AnonymousX AnonymousX is offline

    United States

    Posts: 10,934
    Joined: Oct 07

    Jan 7th, 2010 (1/7/2010 8:37pm) in reply to Drewace34

    idk how many i've played, but i've logged something like 15k sngs including single tables and multis. pretty sure my swings and roi are both accurate.

    i'm not saying they aren't swingy b/c they obviously are, but 200 buyins is insane IMO
  10. Drewace34 Drewace34 is offline

    New Westminster
    Canada

    Posts: 1,961
    Joined: Jan 08

    Jan 7th, 2010 (1/7/2010 8:41pm) in reply to AnonymousX

    the more tag you play the less variance you'll hit i know for laggy players it can sometimes be a roller coaster ride...also tough to compare 20 table tourneys to single table tournies thou...

    fly44 is def the dude to ask about variance/downswings/heaters of these iirc
     
  11. moe86 moe86 is offline

    Milton, MA
    United States

    Posts: 1,147
    Joined: Dec 05

    Jan 7th, 2010 (1/7/2010 9:03pm) in reply to OlDirtyDawson

    just checked sharkscope to make sure this is correct i have had a 300 buy-in downswing playing the 12 180s <-------------play better imo
     
  12. Drewace34 Drewace34 is offline

    New Westminster
    Canada

    Posts: 1,961
    Joined: Jan 08

    Jan 7th, 2010 (1/7/2010 9:10pm) in reply to moe86

     
    Originally Posted by moe86 View Post

    just checked sharkscope to make sure this is correct i have had a 300 buy-in downswing playing the 12 180s <-------------play better imo

    and yet i still have never won a showdown vs you...fml nah jk sick 10r ship btw moe
     
  13. moe86 moe86 is offline

    Milton, MA
    United States

    Posts: 1,147
    Joined: Dec 05

    Jan 7th, 2010 (1/7/2010 9:28pm) in reply to Drewace34

    thx man
    sick sharkscope graph for the $12's gg
     
  14. lockdownpokah lockdownpokah is offline

    United States

    Posts: 2,289
    Joined: Sep 07

    Jan 7th, 2010 (1/7/2010 10:26pm) in reply to moe86

    expect the unexpected
     
  15. OlDirtyDawson OlDirtyDawson is offline

    Alto, MI
    United States

    Posts: 1,204
    Joined: Jan 06

    Jan 8th, 2010 (1/8/2010 11:50am) in reply to OlDirtyDawson

    Thanks for the replies. It blows my mind to think it's possible to go on a 200-300 BI downswing. Also makes me wonder what kind of upswings are possible.

    Is Fox's bankroll management article outdated? I have always used that as a rule of thumb for proper bankroll management, now I'm wondering if I should keep depositing until I get it to a higher level.
    Thread Starter
Reply to Thread

Similar Threads