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Downswings between EV and Actual outcomes / Tool to determine randomness

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  1. SQQTED SQQTED is offline

    Woodbridge, VA
    United States

    Posts: 479
    Joined: May 06

    Jun 3rd, 2009 (6/3/2009 7:09pm)

    For those of you that keep track of differece between Actual and Expected outcomes of all ins, how nasty have these been for you? I have a graph of my last 150k hands, but my last 160 all ins have been pretty rough for me.

    http://mysite.verizon.net/res10ot8d/id9.html

    Is there somewhere I can look to figure out how likely a swing like this is gonna happen? and why when I look back at my older PT data, similar swings like this don't happen to the upside?

    Thanks
  2. maxgridlock maxgridlock is offline

    Wallis and Futuna

    Posts: 204
    Joined: Apr 09

    Jun 3rd, 2009 (6/3/2009 8:10pm) in reply to SQQTED

    all in results are just one component of poker luck.

    754 hands is a small sample size.

    worry about stuff like this is is generally pointless.
  3. SQQTED SQQTED is offline

    Woodbridge, VA
    United States

    Posts: 479
    Joined: May 06

    Jun 5th, 2009 (6/5/2009 12:00am) in reply to maxgridlock

    Unfortunately, this component determines your bottom line more than any other. I would like to know if a tool exists to determine if your outcomes fall within a normal range for randomness?
    Thread Starter
  4. Oberonn Oberonn is offline

    Roswell, GA
    United States

    Posts: 205
    Joined: Sep 05

    Jun 5th, 2009 (6/5/2009 4:41pm) in reply to SQQTED

    I was having a discussion with a couple friends about these type graphs and we came to the conclusion that the vast majority we have seen all show expected way above actual. How is this possible? Everyone can not be running bad at the same time.

    The only reasonable answer is either the concept or the application of the concept is flawed.
  5. lordxixor101 lordxixor101 is offline

    Westland, MI
    United States

    Posts: 6,364
    Joined: Mar 06

    Jun 5th, 2009 (6/5/2009 4:50pm) in reply to Oberonn

     
    Originally Posted by Oberonn View Post

    I was having a discussion with a couple friends about these type graphs and we came to the conclusion that the vast majority we have seen all show expected way above actual. How is this possible? Everyone can not be running bad at the same time.

    The only reasonable answer is either the concept or the application of the concept is flawed.

    Depends how your doing this. I would think it's possible. The easiest overall (math wise) might be to break your hands into a few categories. You have small pair versus 2 overs. You 2 overs versus smaller pair. You mid 2 versus an over under (say A10 versus KQ). and then dominated/dominating scenarios. Put a expectation for each, and then see how your running in each.

    Something like Poker Office might be able to help. I use it whenever I play mainly to track agression in oppoinents, but it's a great database of your hands, and what's winning you chips and which hands are you losing your ass on.
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