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<span>Running Bad:<span> </span>The dark truth of Poker---a mid-stakes grinder’s new optimistic and holistic approach to variance</span>

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<span>“Running bad” or “cold decked” cannot explain it entirely.<span> </span>“Variance” and “downswings” are just fancy terms the experts use to candy coat the horrific short term results.<span> </span>The truth of the matter is all poker players seem to go through it at one point or another no matter the stakes done in by some unexplainable force.<span> </span></span>

<span>I’m talking about, “How the hell could I run like this?<span> </span>I’ve come too damn far in my poker career to lose to these terrible players over and over!”<span> </span>Yes, we can finally say it people, it’s time to admit to ourselves---we officially can’t beat the same sweet games we once crushed and lived on because we are losing every single coin flip.</span>

<span>Yet we continue to play, not matter what…buy in after buy in, bad beat after bad beat, overdraft after overdraft, payday loan after payday loan, river flush after river flush…because you know without a doubt in your heart your “bad luck” is about to change.<span> </span>If you could catch a break every now and again you would breakthrough and be featured on a P5’s pod cast glorifying your recent big scores.<span> </span>Those scores finally providing the necessary scratch to start a bankroll---a true bankroll where you can afford to not be scared to get stacked and lose your rent and bill money.</span>

<span>This once achievable dream of one day being a household name like other great poker pros is now very dark and isolate.<span> </span>Realistically, now further away than even before you started playing the game---before you were introduced to Moneymaker and Rounders.<span> </span>Nobody believes in your game anymore, including the other players and even worse sometimes yourself.<span> </span></span>

<span>You can’t explain it, your winning ways gone and you even suspect some family members whispering, “He plays way too much poker…he might have a gambling problem.”<span> </span>Which they never would dare say when you were crushing the game, now would they?<span> </span></span>

<span>But it doesn’t really matter what other people think now does it, or we probably wouldn’t be poker players would we?<span> </span>It’s not so much the bad beats (well…yeah it is) or the cold to the touch cards that seem to come every time you look down but the consistent terrible play from others and seeing them still cash and make the money in tournaments or cash games they have no business even being in.<span> </span></span>

<span>Remember, it seems everyone time you do wake up with a made hand, of course one of these sloppy suckers has picked up a monster, chased the gut-shot and hit or simply hit his two outer on the river.<span> </span>I know they say “fish” are the people who pay the bills and that luck simply doesn’t exist in the long run, and these bad beats should never let your emotions take a hold of your game no matter what, but how could it not?<span> </span><span> </span></span>

<span>Because a man can only take so much punishment and torture before he breaks.<span> </span>A good old fashioned breaking point---the point of no return with one’s own shadowy confidence whether to keep playing or give it up entirely because it’s been hurting so badly lately---especially to your confidence and your bankroll.<span> </span>How could you ever think about playing this harsh game for a living, especially after a horrific run like this?<span> </span>That one time unbeatable approach, instinct and overall game is starting to fade.<span> </span></span>

<span>Then you remember who you are, that poker player who plays with patience and selective aggressiveness unlike many of the other players you have come across.<span> </span>You show flashes of brilliance by playing with “Seamless Agility” (Apostolico Card Player Magazine December 19, 2007) against all foes.<span> </span>Including battling against and simply outplaying your fare share of “pros”.<span> </span></span>

<span>So you keep playing, knowing in your heart that they can’t continue to get so lucky and run hot on everyday basis.<span> </span>Especially when you are grinding away like a true Rounder is supposed to---not gambling away livelihood, checks and more importantly your roll on a god damn pipe dream.<span> </span></span>

<span>Because it seems somehow by fate’s ultimate plan when you are running like this you always find one of these lucky donkey bastards one way or the other every time you see the felt.<span> </span>They push all in pre flop after a raise and re-raise with twenty-five Big Blinds with Ace-ten because it was “sooted”.<span> </span></span>

<span>Also, they consistently call out of position and overplay small pocket pairs and suited connectors or three barrel and then get rewarded on the river when then hit a miracle card.<span> </span>They don’t know when to give a hand up when they are beat not realizing that they probably won’t win at poker in the grand scheme of their poker life even with all the luck in the world.<span> </span></span>

<span>You finally stand up for yourself---not caring about the people who say if you play poker long enough you will run worse than you ever thought possible.<span> </span>You are sick and tired of days filled with dogs getting way too much sunshine on their asses by getting lucky and hitting their weak flush draws. (It’s hard to believe how these donkeys push all-in after the flop on a flush draw---I just find it hard to see how they don’t understand that play is just not profitable in the long run) <span> </span></span>

<span>So you say to yourself, “I’m back boys and girls, that killer is back on the loose and this bad run will go on no longer because I believe in myself that much and it will end as simply as that!<span> </span>I am not going to think…what if anymore.<span> </span>That negative thought process and overall negative energy is over and done with and out of my life for good!” <span> </span><span> </span></span>

<span>To be honest, I had a personal epiphany the other week while playing in an $85 dollar buy in tournament at my local casino that sparked my stand against poker variance.<span> </span>While daydreaming during a hand I wasn’t involved in because I really was tired of looking at nine deuce off and donkeys seem to move (“play”) so slowly, I realized something.<span> </span></span>

<span>I said to myself, “Hey wait a minute, if I am not winning right now who is?”<span> </span></span>

<span>Then I stood up from my table and took a panoramic view of the entire room.<span> </span>And just like I thought, I didn’t find one winning player in my eyes.<span> </span>Now I am not talking about the hot streak these low limit players sometimes go on, but the winning player over his/her poker career and life.<span> </span></span>

<span>The fact of the matter is I now realize in my poker career that a lot of you reading this are just awful yourself and are truly not winning players, you just can’t be.<span> </span>I can’t tell you how many bad players I have played with and against live and online---low stakes to medium stakes cash games and low level buy-ins to mid level ($500 dollar buy-in) tournaments that to put it bluntly suck!<span> </span></span>

<span>The thing is when you have been running horrible like this for over eight months, you just finally come to one conclusion---you simply know the numbers don’t mean anything anymore, because you have seen too many people magically turn into Aaron Kantar and hit that miracle river card oh too many times to believe the math is right.<span> </span></span>

<span>Brian Townsend, the high stakes specialist and poster boy of what all of us “younger” players want to ultimately become, said it best when he explained math as just approximations to explain phenomena surrounding us.<span> </span>Until then, just like he said he had done his entire life, I thought the bull shit they were teaching us in math classes growing up was the absolute truth, when in actuality it isn’t what we expect the truth to be at all.<span> </span></span>

<span>So all those smart people telling you growing up that you have believe in math like a religion---you have to realize it is just a bunch of theories, and to me, that means you can’t really prove it just explain it, or try to.<span> </span>It is a man made application or synthetic concept really, basically meaning it is not absolute.<span> </span>So go ahead, go on keep believing those guys who made up the math behind you figuring he has three outs on the river for just over 7%, because 93 times out of a 100 is really a huge favorite, but wow when the last 10 knockouts you have endured hasn’t even added up to 93% then you know something isn’t right.<span> </span></span>

<span>Don’t get me wrong, I am not saying math is irrelevant in poker or even in life for that matter.<span> </span>It is one of the biggest and most important aspects of the game (bank-roll management, ROI, EV, pot and implied odds, etc...) but to believe in it without a doubt and that the cards will hold up simply because of the math is where you are at fault.<span> </span>I truly feel that most great poker players have the math down cold because they are just that instinctive and most “winning” players have a higher sense for the game not because they received A’s in math class in high school.<span> </span></span>

<span>They have developed over the years from experience of playing so many hands a true feel for the game.<span> </span>So just like that kid who struggled with math his entire life and just couldn’t figure out the principle concepts---these terrible player will probably never truly get it or understand the game, because there are people out there who it comes natural to and have true feel for the game who will be the winners in the long run.<span> </span>Just like me.</span>

<span>Here it is folks.<span> </span>If you are a mid-stakes grinder like me and have been in a rut like mine listen to the following advice.<span> </span>Number one---stop looking to others for advice.<span> </span>I don’t care what others have to say about this.<span> </span>Go back to your natural game, because you are that good, and you believe this because you have already proved it to yourself---moving flawlessly by shifting gears and staying ahead of the learning curve in every game you played in up until this run.<span> </span>I feel and now know that you and you alone are going to get you out of this run, by yourself.<span> </span>That great player you once were before this run is still there, you just can’t give up.<span> </span></span>

<span>That confusion you are feeling about the game because of this losing streak will end when you say it will end, and that day is today.<span> </span>Stop, think to yourself and know that you can’t run like this forever---you weren’t playing bad, that other dude was “running hot” and sucked out and the cards really did suck that bad.<span> </span>Know the variance will end soon and be patient because the cards are coming, because they have to.<span> </span></span>

<span>Realize and understand all the great ones before you have been in your shoes, maybe more than once if they are honest.<span> </span>And this actually might not even be the last time you even run badly, but remember the player you are and know the player you will someday soon become. <span> </span>Know this bad time in your poker life has made you a better player, actually a better person---humbling every aspect of your life and game and actually making you that much hungrier to get better at the game, to do this for a living.<span> </span></span>

<span>You are going to dominate like you once did, and you will get a break, catch the cards once again and soon play so well that all you can do is win and have a bankroll to finally be the best player in the world!<span> </span>Just play within yourself and keep playing because you are so optimistic, making the right decisions and plays on as consistent basis as possible every time and you will be winner in the long run.</span>

<span>On a final note, if you are going to take and use one mathematical equation to understand the skewed short term results of this horrible run, take this one.<span> </span>For every action, there is an opposite and equal reaction.<span> </span>So, basically think of your run this way.<span> </span>It can’t get any worse, right?<span> </span>Therefore, your horrible run is the action and for the time being know your hot run is the opposite and equal reaction and it’s just around the corner.<span> </span>It’s just one perfectly played tournament online away, during the Sunday Million on pokerstars, from getting a start to getting that scratch together for a bank-roll that allows for you to do what you wanted to do: prove to the world that you can play some poker.<span> </span></span>

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Totally expected the ending to be like "don't expect the downswing and losing streak to end b/c truth is, you're probably a losing player and is just using mathematical variance as an excuse to keep playing."

But then it did a 180 from what I expected.

A tad wordy.............

Ya but this has been posted before hasnt it. Where have I seen some of this article?

Imustcall,
Just curious....if this is a losing players mentality...Then what would you describe as a winning players mentality? I ask because this article pertains to me, and a lot of players out there. How do you approach the game? As far as mental toughness and what not. Thank you.

I agree. I just think reading a player and their betting patterns setting off that alarm inside your head is just as valuable. The gut feeling you get about another player's holding and/or how you can influence that player to do what you want them to do very often has little to do with math. Sizing your bet (or not making one at all) is part of this but once you've done that you still have to pull the trigger. The bet you don't make (in which math is not always involved) is just as important as the ones you do.

get a lucky account and you wont have to worry about anything

very good read, and came at a good time. my last 4 weeks have been brutal, and OP just posted what i've tried to keep as my inner monologue.

Just my two cents bro---I never said you had to use my article as the bible---I simpy was refereing to the "flush monkeys" who push all in evertime no matter after the flop what with a four flush thinking they will hit it more often than they won't. You know as a poker player that you will not hit the flush as many times as you will---you know that, so I was simply saying that their donkey move after the flop isn't as profitable in the long run as they the donkey might want to think---thats all---my bad---I'll go into hiding from now on tmac2424, sorry I even considered sharing this with P5 and our poker community!

Tex,

I put this at the bottom so it would get read.

Characterstics of a winner:

1) A winner doesn't have an epiphany, stand up in a casino, look for winners, and find none. They just don't do stuff like this. They might look at their table, and watch the person who seems to be winning and decide if they are good or not.

2) A winner who is losing is not looking to be a part of a group. They see themselves as different. Losers need other losers to support them. Misery loves company. Winners are appalled to be associated with a larger group of non winners.

3) Winners believe in fact. AA wins 80% of the time, period. When it doesn't hold, as bad as it hurts, that is the 20%.

4) Winners can deal with the 20%. Good or Bad, they no it exists and are prepared for it.

5) Winners think differently. A loser says, if I could win coinflips, I could be a winner. A winner says, I am getting into too many coinflips, and that is keeping me from winning.

6) I winner looks at themselves when not successful. Could I read a situation better? Did I play the hand incorrectly? Am I managing the tournament properly? A loser focusses on outside infuences....Variance is killing me. I can't beat a tournament full of donkeys.

In reading this article, I just don't see a lot of winning characteristics. Sorry, but you asked. And it is just my opinion. I'm not trying to be negative, Tex just asked.

JustKLL,

There was nothing in my response that was a personal attack against you. Step away from it and look at my post. I was asked a simple question, what do you think the characteristics of a winner are? I didn't even say I have these characteristics. I just gave a few examples of how I think a winning player thinks, and in truth, may help a lot of players. And I said I did not see these in your essay. Annette, Lilholdem, Pokerpro, etc. etc., they think and assess things a lot differently than most. Sorry, it's the truth. Tex asked me to give some insight, and I did.

In all seriousness, my intentions were truly meant for the good, as a lot of people have themselves trapped in a losing state of mind. Better judgemment could have been used on my part.

wp

Joerem, I wish I had your outlook. It's not that I'm trying to achieve stardom, I'm a recreational player and need to approach it as such while also trying to profit a little. Just teach me to have your attitude and I think I would be set.

Was I the only person to fall asleep mid-way through and then wake up mumbling blah blah blah?

did anyone else lol at 3 years rent?