never fold AK if its suited

so you are saying, you cant imagine a case where you HAD a healthy stack, lost most of it cuz KK<AT, manage to build it back up to M>5, and then for a couple rounds the bigstacks are fighting for table dominance and you cant put a chip in without having an allin hand? and when you get that allin hand, one of the bigger stacks has already opened so you are essentially calling allin.... which i now understand you need to do because of the dead money and the size of my stack.... its just that ive always placed 'first-in vigorish' to be my #1 priority over ANYTHING else, unless holding AA or KK... but now i'll include AKs, and probably even weaker, hands in this situation.

and about the villain's range being AA/KK only to warrant a fold with AKs? youre saying, if he only raiss AA/KK/QQ here, or AA/KK/AKs here, i would still have to call? not sure about the math on that one there..... (and i understand this CANNOT be the case, i'm just arguing this as a hypothetical, since it was brought up.)

no one has shown that math of, say:
2200 players

3.3 mil chips in play

stacks:
1mil
600k
400k
several 200k stacks
rest short

say AKs is 50/50 against his range (88+ and AJs+)

so, i shove,
50% of the time im at 200k
50% of the time i'm out.

whereas, i fold
100% of the time im at 80k.
i open shove my next playable hand and it gets folded 85% of the time, and i'm at 120k
15% of the time i get called but i still have say 50% chance to win the 200k pot.

does this line of reasoning have no effect?

i didnt know tom mcevoy started backing low stakes MTTers

It isn't questionable at all.
</thread>

What is your reasoning for putting some on that range? Because those are the hands YOU raise with late in a tournament? THATS the point. THATS the problem. But I am honestly frustrated, because this thread is a broken record, and you are totally unwilling to accept even the possibility that your entire line of thinking is horrible wrong.

I'm done, sorry, but this is stressing me out now.

Good laydown you're right I'm wrong nh wp gg, ttly.

u dont like logic and math, do you.....

MY range would be tighter than that, actually...

and i already said, i accept i was wrong, i will instashove next time. i just like to see the math behind it, and i can see you get frustrated because you don KNOW the math behind it... i want to be SHOWN, 'THIS is why' from a chips-tournament equity standpoint, that is all.

No need to get so frustrated, Shawboy. Not everyone sees things the same way. Sometimes certain types of mistakes can pay off in the short run, making it very difficult to understand how in the long run they are mistakes.

88+ and AJ+ is a relatively tight raising range for a big stack 7-handed near the final table, but it's possible that's the player's range, in which case it's still a very clear all in situation with AK. Against that range, you're at slightly over 50% to win the hand. I don't have poker stove in front of me at work here, but it's only slightly over 50%, however, your situation in the tournament (desperately short stack, high blinds, and the amount of chips equivalent to about 1/2 your stack already in the pot) makes this an easy call, despite your feeling that your opponent was on a tight range (which I don't agree with given the information posted, but for the sake of argument, we'll say that's his range). Remember that you are getting about 1.5 to 1 on an all in here. There are 38k chips in the pot, so you're putting in your 80k to win about 120k. All you really need is about a 40% chance to win the pot for this to be the correct move.

Moreover, I'd probably take even less of a % with such a short stack. You're just highly unlikely to survive without getting your chips in and taking a shot at doubling. What some may not realize is that with 4 BBs, you have basically no fold equity at this point. Opponents in the big blind cannot correctly fold to your shove with any hand. Thereby, you're in a forced showdown situation. Shoving ATC doesn't do you any good. There are a few marginal situations where an opponent might fold, but it's well over 50% of the time that you will be called when you shove. I'd say possibly 80% or more. Wouldn't you rather be in against a range you're slightly ahead of getting 1.5 to 1 than in against a range equal to (or better than) yours getting only about 1.2 to 1?

I do know the math behind it. Very well, I might add, but that is totally irrelevant in this case. The math wasn't the problem. Explaining the math to you in a way in which you fully understand it will not help you with your main problem. Your thought process is the problem. You have no chips. You need chips. You won't get enough +EV situations before you are blinded out of the tournament to be as picky as you are being. You are wrong.

You are wrong.

Please lets just end this thread, I would like to help you, but you seem very set in your ways, and at best you are only willing to accept that you were partially incorrect, when in reality, nothing about your actions or thought process make sense.

My AIM is 'Tha Stanimal'. I already PMed that to you in an offer to explain it more fully to you, and you never responded. I don't know why....maybe because you think you are too good to take advice from me?????

<table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#eeeedd"><td><table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td>Re(3): ever fold AKs not on a bubble to one raise?
by Asiandude7 on 10/26/2007 15:47 </td><td><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td><nobr> </nobr> </td><td><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td> </td></tr></tbody></table> </td></tr></tbody></table> </td></tr></tbody></table> </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td bgcolor="#ffffff">FYP
</td><td colspan="2"><table celspacing="0" border="0" cellpadding="2"><tbody><tr><td>never fold AK</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>

is it really a forced showdown? 38k in there, i raise to 80k, 118k inthere, 60k to call... so yes, it's a 1:2 call, tough to lay from the BB.
but if my image is GREAT AND im shoving into other shortstacks who will only call with a top 15% hand..... they can, they do, and they did fold in this exact scenario.... i do understand, that a stronger player in the BB WOULDNT fold, but i obviously felt at the time that they would fold......

that seems to have been my error, thinking that the BB would fold 85% of the time to my open shove, and i then still would have a chance at the 200k pot at THAT point, if he called....

U know what? I can't believe this thread has 80 something replies to it.

in order to do that, you need the stacks of everyone else in the tourney at that time, and you don't

if it's +cEV, i'd be willing to be a large sum of money that it's a +$EV spot.

you dont need ALL the details, do you?

3.3mil total
16plyrs

CL:1mil
600k
400k
200k (x5)
100k+ (x5)
<100k (x4)

say AKs is 50/50 against his range (88+ and AJs+)

so, i shove,
50% of the time im at 200k
50% of the time i'm out.

whereas, i fold
100% of the time im at 80k.
i open shove my next playable hand and it gets folded 85% of the time, and i'm at 120k
15% of the time i get called but i still have say 50% chance to win the 200k pot.

is it THAT hard?