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Alright ill give you a little bit of background, i started playing online about 4 or 5 years on party poker when i was 15(this isnt about playing underage, i did it so did alot of other players blah blah its really not that big of a deal).
Back then the biggest games they had on the site were 1/2 and 2/4. I remember just getting into the game and being completely poker illiterate limping the cut off/button, a 3 bet to me always ment QQ+ Ako+. But now thinking back on it i think thats how everyone played, way more "cards oriented" people really wouldnt play ahead of the curve and if you were one of the few that were ahead of there time you were crushing the game. In mtt's back when i used to play them it was the same concept, alot of limping "stealing the blinds" was unheard of and 3 betting with less then JJ was condidered absurd. Somehow i was still able to pull good profit and i really cant see how i was doing that... running good? playing perfect ABC poker? i really couldnt tell you.
Fast forward a year or 2 and i remember having a bigger bankroll and 4 tabling 2/4 and palying the bigger mtt's where i finally started developing some new "advanced" strategies... 3 betting lighter in position, stealing blinds, semibluffing. Just a few things that at that point were agead of its time, which in turn would lead me to be a very profitable player at what i was playing. I kept playing these games until the curve and everyone caught up to me and i felt like i had little to know advantage anymore.
Alright now we come to about a year and a half ago and i started playing hu's. started at around the 110's-220 range and (at this point they didnt have hu cash tables) would just run them over. I would take what i had learned from the cash games and just open my game up even more since we were playing HU and not 6 handed. It worked well for about 6 months until people started evolving and adapting to the new "lagtard" trend that was taking over. From then until today i still play the same type of style (cash included nowadays) and have moved past the 220's up to the 550's 1k's and the style still seems to work as it did before but the edge is still smaller then it was (probably due to stakes as much as the games change).
But what im wondering is whats next for poker...? i cant really think of what could be the next huge game difference. As i see it geting maximum value outta your hands, hand reading and just playing volume and exploiting your small edge over a course of time is what makes the profitable players profitable.
PS. i dont really have the credentials and information to really talk about the game change in MTT's so i thought id just leave that up to you guys
JMprodigy -
interesting thread...one of the smartest people i know told me that he thinks JJ wasnt/isnt even THAT amazing, it's just he figured things out before everyone else...he figured out that 3betting light was the way to go...and THAT is why he killed it so significantly...and i couldnt help but think that when i read this....but anyway, i have nothign to contribute to this intelligent thread :)
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ya not a shock that this has 1 reply but jj bullshit gets like 600...<3 p5s
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From what I've seen and heard, it seems that evolution is actually changing games. Now Omaha seems to be getting bigger and bigger each day. I know I personally just discovered heads up play, which is quite addicting, not unlike potato chips.
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edges at higher limits=none unless it's an unknown and NOT a multiaccter. Lower stakes...omfg worst players u've ever seen who do not have the slightest clue how to play a hand. Evolution you say? Either the pros will live with flippaments/hoping one of them makes a mistake, or they all drop down and 80 table ABC micros and use them to make a living haha.
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Fair play.
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answered your own question. No one knows what will happen next until someone discovers a better strategy(there will be one) play will always change...obv the next successful group of players will be the ones that figure it out duh
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This post is actually awesome. I always feel like poker has pretty much been discovered, that there is already a set optimal strategy, but this makes me think maybe theres things that are still left to be discovered
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Yes. I have created a new concept for optimal play and it works equally well against the donks and the pros. I am not at liberty to reveal my secret. Eventually, it will be well known by all. But not until I have some very sick cashes.
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There are hundreds of people that understand flawless poker play, the logic behind it and how to mathematically prove it.
I don't think the top top top of the poker community will get that much better over the years because they already understand everything there is to understand.
I do think that the middle to lower level players will begin to play better and catch up to the peak as they get older, more experienced, and learn. The average age of a poker player now is like ~25-30 and clearly have many many years to improve before their ability decreases because of age.
The poker community has been fortunate enough to only lose a few of the elite poker players. I think the quality of poker will continue to improve until today's elite players begin to pass at the same rate as new ones enter the community. -
omaha
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hello mr buzz killington
Originally Posted by SCTrojans
There are hundreds of people that understand flawless poker play, the logic behind it and how to mathematically prove it.
I don't think the top top top of the poker community will get that much better over the years because they already understand everything there is to understand.
I do think that the middle to lower level players will begin to play better and catch up to the peak as they get older, more experienced, and learn. The average age of a poker player now is like ~25-30 and clearly have many many years to improve before their ability decreases because of age.
The poker community has been fortunate enough to only lose a few of the elite poker players. I think the quality of poker will continue to improve until today's elite players begin to pass at the same rate as new ones enter the community. -
That is definitely a possibility. I don't think too much will change however. Something like over 90% of players are losers and because of human nature, addiction, etc, I don't see how there would such a drop off in fish leaving us with only "winning" players. As far as I am concerned, all the tools to make one self better at poker are available however, very few who actually will use them have the discipline and mindset to properly learn and apply that knowledge. I hope that poker becomes "legal" again someday soon as I could definitely see another big influx of players and while I def agree with SCT on his thoughts, I think that human nature will allow this game and its fishies to continue. Granted there are more top players now than before, but as are fish and I am sure the ratio of the two has changed very little.
One very interesting comment was the change of the actual game itself. PLO is starting to blow up in a pretty big way simply because there is so much action. This is awesome for poker and definitely see this escalating, big time.
Not sure how to make sense of what I just said, so I am sorry for the incohesiveness. -
As someone with a strong math background (ive taken graduate math courses) I am curious if you have a reference for the proof of what perfect play is. I assume you mean a rigorous game theoretic proof, the reason i ask is that i find it hard to believe one exists.
Originally Posted by SCTrojans
There are hundreds of people that understand flawless poker play, the logic behind it and how to mathematically prove it.
I dont mean any disrespect sctrojans, i know you are a top player, I really liked the original post and I dont want to see it get killed so quickly.
I think mathematics is very useful for analyzing the game in a very general situation over a long period of time. But when you are faced with a really tough decision, there are so many factors to consider, that a rigorous mathematical approach would be very tedious, and probably not very enlightening. Making the right move when you are faced with one of these super tough decisions is a big part of what poker is all about, what Im trying to get at is that there is a non mathematical part of the game.
The way your opponents are playing has a dramatic effect on what the optimal strategy is (meta game), so how can you claim there is a single optimal strategy? I think the OPs point was that the metagame has changed a lot, and hes trying to start a discussion on good ways to adapt to the current metagame. You have clearly taken the position that there is no way to adapt other than playing the one optimal style, but if there is no rigorous proof of this, then you have to admit its at least possible that there is a better strategy out there for this metagame, waiting to be discovered. -
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" width="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">I think this thread overestimates the speed and success a single idea can have in the game of poker. As SCT correctly states, there are a number of people who already understand how to play flawless poker, that is, they know every move available to them and what factors need to be considered before choosing. Read AJK's article about poker evolution; the oscillations of the game are combatted slowly. For instance, you mention the three-bet mania in NL games. As time goes on, raising ranges will tighten and four-bet ranges will loosen until three-bet ranges are at a sort of equilibrium (assuming they aren't close right now.) It's not as if someone is going to wake up tomorrow and say "Oh I just need to do X every time X happens" and start destroying every field in sight. Yes, poker is evolving as more information is being diffused. The next step? Get better.
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FTP getting a solid payment processor for withdrawls as well as deposits???
Probably too much to ask for. -
Mixed games and dealers choice.
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lmao yes not THAT amazing... that is only called a genius in any given discipline
Originally Posted by 99NvrLosez
<p> one of the smartest people i know told me that he thinks JJ wasnt/isnt even THAT amazing, it's just he figured things out before everyone else...he figured out that 3betting light was the way to go...and THAT is why he killed it so significantly...<br></p>
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darwinism suggests that we will no longer to be able to form sentences, and everything we say will sound like this. 'All In'
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Online cash games have progressed dramatically as Prodigy was saying. The three betting light philosophy has destroyed the profitability of the old TAG or LAG raise and Cbet philosophy. The old TAG or LAG and Cbet philosophy had been successful in live games for many years and it still is. However, because of the speed that the game progresses online, online players are now FAR ahead on average of where the average live player is.
The average live player rarely gets reraised preflop, let alone 3 bet. This is true from 1/2 to at least 10/20 in most live casinos. The average online player who multis 4 cash games at 1/2 NL is better than most the live grinders playing 5/10 NL. Also, they absolutely kill 1/2 and 2/5 live. However because live is so much slower, it develops slower and will only catch up to online play at the very highest levels.
Observe closely the next time you go to a casino and see for yourself how the average live player is FAR worse than the online players. Also, because the UIGEA has made it more difficult for the online donkeys to reload, most of the online players made the bankroll they possess online by playing poker. That certainly can't be said for the average live player. The online player has had to get good, far better even than his live counterpart in order to survive.
Also as a result of UIGEA, online cash tables are FAR tougher than in the past. Most online games 1/2 and up are full of grinders earning a living. 5 out of 6 players on many shorthanded tables are grinders. Knowing this makes me chuckle when live players don't understand why they can't beat the online game. This is because the live players are SO much worse than the online players in cash games. 10/20 NL on up in live cash games are a different story, but below that, the live cash games are a fish fest compared to what you encounter in the average online game down to 1/2 NL.
I for one long for the return of the online fish with the repeal of the UIGEA. May it come soon. -
Since when do c-bets work in live cash games?
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There was always more to the TAG or LAG style than just C-bets. I just used that as a style descriptor.
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Also left out was the development of the concept of floating as an initial response to the basic TAG or LAG style that soon became incorporated into both styles as well before the 3 bet phase began.
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Nice post. This didn't get nearly enough love
Originally Posted by calhoun137
As someone with a strong math background (ive taken graduate math courses) I am curious if you have a reference for the proof of what perfect play is. I assume you mean a rigorous game theoretic proof, the reason i ask is that i find it hard to believe one exists.
I dont mean any disrespect sctrojans, i know you are a top player, I really liked the original post and I dont want to see it get killed so quickly.
I think mathematics is very useful for analyzing the game in a very general situation over a long period of time. But when you are faced with a really tough decision, there are so many factors to consider, that a rigorous mathematical approach would be very tedious, and probably not very enlightening. Making the right move when you are faced with one of these super tough decisions is a big part of what poker is all about, what Im trying to get at is that there is a non mathematical part of the game.
The way your opponents are playing has a dramatic effect on what the optimal strategy is (meta game), so how can you claim there is a single optimal strategy? I think the OPs point was that the metagame has changed a lot, and hes trying to start a discussion on good ways to adapt to the current metagame. You have clearly taken the position that there is no way to adapt other than playing the one optimal style, but if there is no rigorous proof of this, then you have to admit its at least possible that there is a better strategy out there for this metagame, waiting to be discovered. -
how would they score less points by going for it?
probably the dumbest reply i've ever seen, well done.










